Another round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey has brought little progress towards a ceasefire, let alone a peace agreement. Based on statements by both Moscow and Kyiv, it appears that there is some consensus on the issues that need to be negotiated, but little on what the sides might consider acceptable solutions.
The current Ukrainian position is centred around two main issues: neutrality and territorial integrity. The former will require an amendment to the Ukrainian constitution that changes the current commitment to “the irreversibility of the … Euro-Atlantic course of Ukraine” and instead provides for the country’s permanent neutral status.
While the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has already committed to a referendum on any agreement with Russia, this will not remove the need for a two-thirds majority in the Ukrainian parliament – the Verkhovna Rada – and a favourable opinion of the constitutional court on whether the amendments are “are oriented toward the liquidation of the independence or violation of the territorial indivisibility of Ukraine”. Both of these are required for constitutional amendments. Moreover, no constitutional amendments are allowed “in conditions of martial law or a state of emergency”.
