I won’t pretend to be a foreign policy expert and have no idea if Russia intends to invade Ukraine (again, that is. It annexed Crimea and supported proxy forces in the eastern Donbas region in 2014.)
One thing that is clear is that the spectre of conflict has revealed splits within the Western alliance. Most notably between the US and Germany (over arms and energy) as well as France, which wants an enhanced role for the EU.
Side note – I find you can learn a lot about a person or politician depending on whether they refer to the accession of Eastern European countries to Nato as ‘expansion’ (bad) or enlargement (good).
This moment is ultimately an existential crisis for Ukraine, a nation all too aware of its history, both distant and recent. It is not forgotten that, as the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, Ukraine - with a population of 52 million people - possessed 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads – the third largest arsenal in the world.
It agreed to give them up and sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as part of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which the US, UK and Russia undertook to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” as well as to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against it. Clearly, in 2014 Russia broke the commitments it made.
Fast forward to today, and Boris Johnson has warned President Vladimir Putin that an invasion would be a “disastrous step” that could see Russia bogged down in a bloody and protracted conflict.
The Prime Minister said he did not believe war was inevitable and there was a chance that “sense can still prevail”. The withdrawal of some embassy staff and dependents from Kyiv suggests deep pessimism within the MoD and Number 10.
Elsewhere in the paper, and in somewhat of a change of pace... buckle up – this might get uncomfortable. Lucy Holden gets in touch with five exes to look back at her defining relationships. All for her personal growth/your enjoyment.
In the comment pages, ‘A stranger shouted ‘dirty Jew’ at my friend. I was entirely unsurprised’ – ahead of Holocaust Memorial Day, Rob Rinder reflects on rising antisemitism in London. Rob also has his say on Kate Middleton – expressing his firmly held desire to live in a “Kate-ocracy“.
Meanwhile, do you want to know when the cost of living crisis really comes home? When you pay four quid for a doughnut. Melanie McDonagh’s open application to sit on the Monetary Policy Committee is worth a read.
And finally, our wine and spirits columnist (what a job title) Aidy Smith says there’s more to a booze-free life than Dry January. But whether you’re holding on for one more week or making it part of your lifestyle, he brings us the best non-alcoholic drinks to explore year-round.
