In the early hours of February 24, Russia attacked Ukraine, beginning with a barrage of airstrikes in the country’s eastern regions. Other major cities came under siege within a matter of hours, including Kyiv. Russian president Vladimir Putin threatened catastrophic consequences if any foreign actor interfered in this “special military operation”, further raising the spectre of war.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, vowed to resist the invasion, while western leaders condemned the attack and issued a new set of sanctions against Moscow. After two months of increasing tensions, it seems that interstate war has returned to the European continent, with possibly dreadful consequences. But why is this escalation happening now?
Western intelligence had been warning that a Russian invasion was imminent. But what enabled Russia to escalate was already there: the possibility of renewed fighting in the proxy conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Kyiv’s government.
