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China may take advantage of Ukraine crisis, US general says
China may take advantage of the Ukraine crisis and do something “provocative” in Asia while western powers are focused on defusing tensions with Russia, a US general has warned.
General Kenneth Wilsbach, the head of US Pacific Air Forces, noted that China had aligned itself with Russia in the crisis, Agence France-Presse reports.
Wilsbach told reporters on the sidelines of the Singapore Airshow on Wednesday:
From the standpoint of will China see what’s happening in Europe and... try to do something here in the Indo-Pacific - absolutely yes, that’s a concern.
I do have my concerns that they would want to take advantage.
It won’t be surprising if they tried something that may be provocative, and see how the international community reacts.”
Wilsbach said that when Beijing expressed support for Russia in the Ukraine standoff, he held talks with his staff and other “entities” in the region about its implications.
Based in Hawaii, Wilsbach’s command would play a central role if conflict erupts in the Pacific though he did not go into specifics about what China might do during the Ukraine crisis, saying only that there were “probably a number of options” for Beijing.
Australia’s prime minister Scott Morrison responded to Russia’s claims it has pulled back its military presence from Ukraine, describing the reports as “unconvincing and unconfirmed”.
Morrison said cyber attacks on Ukraine ran counter to reports that Russia was about to engage in a pullback.
The Australian Associated Press reports he told colleagues in parliament on Wednesday:
Russia must unconditionally withdraw.
If Russia attacks Ukraine, it will be met with overwhelming international condemnation. The world will not forget that Russia chose needless death and destruction.”
Updated
Tensions continue in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine as soldiers carry out training exercises in preparation for a potential war.
Militants of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), seen pictured below, prepare for battle on the line of separation from the Ukrainian armed forces near the rebel-controlled settlement of Staromykhailivka.
Ukrainian servicemen are also seen carrying out training exercises.
Updated
Japan continues to watch the situation in Ukraine unfold with grave concern despite a Russian announcement of a partial pullback of armed forces, Japan’s top government spokesperson said, as reported by Reuters.
Chief cabinet secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told a news conference on Wednesday:
[US] President Biden has said the possibility of an invasion of Russian forces into Ukraine clearly remains.
The Japanese government sees that the situation remains unpredictable, and we will keep a close eye on the situation with high alert and grave concern.”
Russia's OSCE refusal shows "contempt" for its commitments, Truss says
Russia’s refusal to participate in the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) talks demonstrates its contempt for the commitments it voluntarily signed, the UK foreign secretary has said.
Responding to Russia’s failure to send a representative to an OSCE meeting about its military build-up, Liz Truss issued a statement reading:
Russia is patently failing to live up to the international commitments it has made around transparency.
If the Kremlin is serious about a diplomatic resolution, then it needs to show up to diplomatic meetings and commit to meaningful talks. Russia’s refusal to engage with the OSCE process demonstrates its contempt for the commitments it freely signed up to.
It is Russia that is the aggressor here. The troops stationed on the border are clear threat to Ukraine. The UK and our allies urge the Kremlin to withdraw its troops and enter discussions based on the proposals put forward by NATO to improve transparency and reduce risk.”
Russia is patently failing to live up to the international commitments it has made around transparency.
— Liz Truss (@trussliz) February 15, 2022
Read my statement on Russia’s refusal to engage with the OSCE process. 👇 pic.twitter.com/40gDTy8Hzp
Updated
Hopes that Russia could be scaling back its military buildup on the border with Ukraine have boosted stocks in Asia at the start of Wednesday’s trading day.
The Nikkei in Japan is up nearly 2% after two days of losses this week, while the Hang Seng is up more than 1% and so is the Kospi in Seoul.
Another barometer of investor angst – Brent crude oil – was down slightly at $92.85 as it continued to slide back from seven-year highs hit on Monday. It’s still rallied $20 – or more than 20% – since August.
Brent crude #oil price has rallied ~$20 since August, with surging demand contributing about $9 per @Economics pic.twitter.com/QQP1szrhWd
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) February 15, 2022
Snaps from on the ground in Ukraine’s most populous city of Kyiv in the west of the country and Lviv in the north show life as normal for Ukraine citizens.
Many in the Ukrainian capital remain sceptical about an attack taking place, regardless of the exodus of diplomats.
Most locals are going about their lives as normal, Guardian correspondent Shaun Walker reports from Kyiv.
Updated
A pair of Ukraine’s banking websites are back in operation following a suspected cyberattack.
Websites for Oschadbank and Privatbank have resumed online operations, according to a statement from Ukraine’s data security agency. The statement reads:
“Starting from the afternoon of February 15, 2022, there is a powerful DDoS attack being observed on a number of information resources of Ukraine. In particular, this caused interruptions in the work of web resources of Privatbank and Oschadbank.
The websites of the ministry of defense and the armed forces of Ukraine were also attacked. As of 19:30, the work of banking web resources has been resumed. A working group of experts from the national cybersecurity is taking all necessary measures to localize and resist the cyberattack.”
The websites of Ukraine’s defense ministry and armed forces were also impacted by a cyberattack on Tuesday, according to statements from Ukrainian government agencies.
As we’ve been reporting, US president Joe Biden gave an update on the situation unfolding in Russia and Ukraine, warning that an invasion is “very much a possibility”, but that a diplomatic resolution was still possible.
“If Russia proceeds, we will rally the world to oppose its aggression,” Biden said in Washington, confirming that export controls and other actions not pursued during the 2014 Russia-Crimea invasion will take place if Ukraine is invaded.
Here are the highlights of the speech:
Updated
Hello it’s Samantha Lock joining you on the blog as my colleague Maanvi Singh signs off.
Here is a quick recap of the key developments over the past few hours:
- US president Joe Biden warned that an invasion from Russia is “very much a possibility” but a diplomatic resolution was still possible. He also warned that despite reports from Russia that some of its troops were returning to home bases, analysis from the US has not verified that and that Russian troops continue to remain in a threatening position.
- Ukraine’s defense ministry and two banks were knocked offline on Tuesday. “It is not ruled out that the aggressor used tactics of little dirty tricks because its aggressive plans are not working out on a large scale,” the Ukrainian Centre for Strategic Communications and Information Security, which is part of the culture ministry, said in a statement.
- The White House said it is aware of the cyberattacks and has offered its support though clarified it has nothing on attribution concerning the attacks, US press secretary Jen Psaki told a press briefing.
- The attacks likely affected Ukraine’s military, energy, and other key systems according to recently declassified US intelligence, the Washington Post reports.
-
Boris Johnson said Russia was sending “mixed signals” over its intentions in Ukraine, despite the troop movement reports. “The intelligence we are seeing is not encouraging,” he said.
- The US and European allies agreed that harsh sanctions against Russia would be the most effective way to deter Putin as Biden proposed to halt Nord Stream 2, a Russian natural gas pipeline to Europe if Russia further invades.
- Oil prices fell as much as 4% and stocks were in positive territory in Asia Pacific on Wednesday morning on hopes of a de-escalation of the standoff. However, Biden also warned that sanctions against Russia could cause further oil spikes.
- US Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer and minority leader Mitch McConnell issued a joint statement saying they wanted to send “a bipartisan message of solidarity and resolve to the people of Ukraine” as negotiations over a sanctions package against Russia stall.
Updated
Ukraine’s defense ministry and two banks were knocked offline on Tuesday, raising suspicions that Russia is to blame as tensions between the countries continue to rise.
Ukraine has blamed Russia for similar attacks in the past, and has been on high alert for cyber-sabotage as fears of military action intensify.
“It is not ruled out that the aggressor used tactics of little dirty tricks because its aggressive plans are not working out on a large scale,” the Ukrainian Centre for Strategic Communications and Information Security, which is part of the culture ministry, said in a statement.
The websites were reportedly overwhelmed using a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack in which assailants direct an influx of traffic to a set of servers to take them down.
The Ukrainian defense ministry tweeted that its website was apparently under a cyberattack and it was working on restoring access to it, and a message on its home page said it was under maintenance.
Oshadbank also confirmed the cyberattack, according to Reuters, saying it resulted in the slowing down of some of its systems.
Allies to Ukraine have been on high alert for such an attack, as White House press secretary Jen Psaki said there were “a range of means that we could respond – both seen and unseen – to a cyber attack or any other attack”.
The attack on Tuesday appears to be small in scale and not particularly detrimental, yet, said Rick Holland, chief information security officer at computer security firm Digital Shadows.
“[The attacks] could be a precursor to a significant attack or a component of a broader campaign to intimidate and confuse Ukraine,” he said.
Updated
Analysis: Biden's speech sounded like a closing argument
Joe Biden’s speech sounded like a closing argument, one that had been honed for some time and one that suggested expectations are still high in the White House that Russia will take military action.
Biden briefly nodded to Moscow’s claims to be withdrawing before abruptly contradicting them, raising the US estimate of the number of troops surrounding Ukraine to 150,000 in a “threatening position”.
It was the sort of speech normally delivered on the eve of momentous action, usually military action, to prepare expectations of the population. Biden addressed the American people directly, telling them he was not going to “pretend this will be painless” and that they would feel it at the petrol pump. He promised his administration would do what it could to alleviate that.
The president also sought to speak over Putin’s head to ordinary Russians, who have heard little from their own media about the unprecedented deployments of their soldiers around Ukraine. Biden talked about their “deep ties of family history and culture” to the Ukrainians, and warned a war would bloody the country’s reputation in the history books. The world, he said, would “not forget that Russia chose needless death and destruction”.
He made clear that the US remained open for negotiations on mutual security concerns, saying they would pursue talks “as long as there is hope” for diplomacy, but he stuck to the US position there would no compromise on the fundamental principle of the right of Ukraine and other states to choose their alliances.
Earlier in the day, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, had stressed that Ukrainian membership would not happen in the foreseeable future, but Biden did not echo that conciliatory note. The US has already concluded that such verbal assurances will not be enough for Putin
Biden’s concluding declaration, “If we do not stand for freedom. where it is that risk today, we’ll surely pay a steeper price tomorrow” is likely to be greeted with grim mirth in Kyiv, in the wake of the US embassy’s evacuation and the retreat of American diplomats to the western end of the country. But the US has kept up arms supplies, and is reportedly making arrangements to keep the weapons flowing to an Ukrainian insurgency if it comes to that.
This administration is well aware that it has been portrayed as weak for the manner in which it left Afghanistan.
But Biden had long ago lost faith in the US mission there, whereas he believes wholeheartedly in Nato. He used the word “sacrosanct” to describe America’s obligation to its allies. It was deliberately resonant language. Biden is clearly aware this could turn out to be a defining test of his presidency.
Updated
Michael McFaul, who served as US ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014, is mixing metaphors and indicating that it’s still unclear whether Russia is looking to turn toward or away from diplomacy at the moment.
We are all looking for signs of Putin pivoting towards negotiations, not war, because we all want to avoid war. But we should be careful about cherry-picking the tea leaves. 1/ THREAD
— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) February 15, 2022
In a joint statement, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, minority leader Mitch McConnell and other senators from both parties said they wanted to send “a bipartisan message of solidarity and resolve to the people of Ukraine”.
They write:
Should Vladimir Putin further escalate his ongoing assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty, Russia must be made to pay a severe price. We are prepared to fully support the immediate imposition of strong, robust and effective sanctions on Russia, as well as tough restrictions and controls on exports to Russia, and we will urge our allies and partners in Europe and around the world to join us.
In the face of Russian escalation against Ukraine, we will continue to support robust security, economic, and humanitarian assistance for the people of Ukraine. The United States and our partners should also move quickly to ensure that the Government of Ukraine receives sustained emergency assistance to defend against an illegal Russian invasion.
The statement comes as bipartisan negotiations over a sanctions package has stalled. Republicans have introduced their own package, which would impose immediate sanctions on Russian oligarchs and members of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, regardless of whether Russia invades Ukraine.
The bill would also mandate sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades, and authorize more security funding for Ukraine, and create a lend-lease program.
Senate Foreign Relations chair Bob Menendez said the Republican bill amounted to “partisan posturing” and that the “latest proposal by Republicans is largely a reflection of what Democrats had already agreed to”.
Updated
In his update today, Biden emphasized that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would affect Americans and European allies.
“I will not pretend this will be painless,” he said, noting that economic sanctions against Russia could cause oil prices to rise even as the US copes with broader inflation.
But the president said that the US and European allies agreed that harsh sanctions against Russia would be the most effective way to deter Putin. He proposed to halt Nord Stream 2, a Russian natural gas pipeline to Europe if Russia further invades.
“When it comes to Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would bring natural gas from Russia to Germany if Russia further invades Ukraine, it will not happen,” he said
Updated
Cyberattacks on Ukraine reported today likely affected Ukraine’s military, energy, and other key systems according to recently declassified US intelligence, reports the Washington Post.
Russian government hackers have likely broadly penetrated Ukrainian military, energy and other critical computer networks to collect intelligence and position themselves potentially to disrupt those systems should Russia launch a military assault on Ukraine, according to newly declassified US intelligence.
Moscow could seek to disrupt Ukrainian entities that provide critical services such as electricity, transportation, finance and telecommunications – either to support military operations or to sow panic in an attempt to destabilize the country, according to a senior administration official who described the intelligence.
The US government has determined only that Russia could undertake disruptive cyber-activity, not that it will, said the official, who like several others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. “We don’t know that they have intention to do so,” the official said. “But we have been working with Ukraine to strengthen their cyberdefenses.”
A Kremlin spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
Read full article here (paywall).
Updated
During today’s White House press briefing, the White House said that it has nothing on attribution concerning cyberattacks in Ukraine.
“I don’t have anything on attribution at this time,” said US press secretary Jen Psaki during today’s press briefing.
"I don't have anything on attribution at this time," @PressSec says of today's DDoS cyber attack.
— Nicole Sganga (@NicoleSganga) February 15, 2022
"What I can say is that we have been in touch with the Ukrainians, our allies and partners, working with them to deter and respond to malicious cyber activity." pic.twitter.com/gVs4QlGFh5
“What I can say is that we have been in touch with the Ukrainians, our allies and partners, working with them to deter and respond to malicious cyber activity,” said Psaki.
Reactions to Biden’s speech on the Russia-Ukraine situation have started to come in as experts share their thoughts on Biden’s remarks.
Here’s Dr. Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International studies on Biden’s speech, with Lewis tweeting:
That speech by Biden was the one POTUS gives if he still expects an invasion. I was quite struck by how much expectation setting Biden did.
That speech by Biden was the one POTUS gives if he still expects an invasion. I was quite struck by how much expectation setting Biden did.
— Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) February 15, 2022
Ben Rhodes, Former Deputy National Security Advisor of the United States, also shared his thoughts on Twitter, writing:
Biden did not seem optimistic about the latest Russian overtures - remained focused on warning of invasion, detailing consequences for Russia (and the world), not giving an inch on the core NATO issues that Putin has been focused on.
Biden did not seem optimistic about the latest Russian overtures - remained focused on warning of invasion, detailing consequences for Russia (and the world), not giving an inch on the core NATO issues that Putin has been focused on.
— Ben Rhodes (@brhodes) February 15, 2022
Biden warns that Russia invasion “still very much a possibility”
During a speech updating on the Russia-Ukraine situation, Joe Biden warned that an invasion from Russia is “very much a possibility,” but that a diplomatic resolution was still possible.
Today, Biden warned that despite reports from Russia that some of its troops were returning to home bases, analysis from the US has not verified that and that Russian troops remain in a threatening position.
“An invasion remains distinctly possible,” said Biden, again announcing that Americans in Ukraine should leave now “before it is too late to leave safely.”
"An invasion remains distinctly possible," he said, calling on all Americans living in Ukraine to leave the country.
— Lauren Gambino (@laurenegambino) February 15, 2022
Biden also confirmed that the US has engaged in “non-stop diplomacy” to prevent a Russian invasion, saying “We should give diplomacy every chance to succeed.”
Biden also, again, noted that NATO allies are united in opposition to an invasion and prepared to respond with consequences.
“The West is united and galvanised,” said Biden, noting that Russia invading Ukraine would be a “self-inflicting wound.”
“If Russia proceeds, we will rally the world to oppose its aggression,” said Biden, confirming that export controls and other actions not pursued during the 2014 Russia-Crimea invasion will take place if Ukraine is invaded.
Biden also confirmed again that Nord Stream 2 will not happen if Russia invades Ukraine.
Updated
Biden providing update on Russia-Ukraine situation
Joe Biden is currently speaking on the Russia-Ukraine situation, with video available here.
Stay tuned!
Updated
Schumer: Joint, "bipartisan" statement on Russia-Ukraine coming soon
US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said that he will be releasing a “bipartisan” statement with US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, along with ranking chairs from other relevant committees, on the Russia-Ukraine situation.
Schumer on Senate response to Russia's Ukraine aggression:"We are right now in the process of trying to put a bipartisan statement together. McConnell & I are working on this w/chairs & ranking mbrs of relevant cmtes.And we hope to have that statement very soon as soon as today." pic.twitter.com/rR0mSbMCWv
— Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan) February 15, 2022
Schumer confirms our reporting — Senate leaders set to issue a joint statement on Russia/Ukraine as soon as today.
— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) February 15, 2022
Statement would be from Schumer, McConnell & natsec committee chairs/rankers.
Comes as sanctions talks fizzle out & Senate tries to pass non-binding resolution.
Updated
White House aware of cyberattacks against Ukraine, offers suport
The White House is aware of cyberattacks against Ukraine and has offered its support, reports Reuters.
Today, following reports that Ukraine’s defense ministry website and at least two large banks had been subject to a cyber attack, the White House said it is aware of the cyberattacks and offered its support as an investigation continues.
This story is developing.
Russia has deployed fighter jets to its air base in Syria for naval exercises, reports Reuters.
Russia has deployed MiG-31K fighter jets with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and long-range Tupolev Tu-22M strategic bombers to its air base in Syria for naval exercises, Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday, citing the defence ministry.
The aircraft dispatched to Russia’s Hmeimim air base will take part in exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, part of a surge of Russian military activity amid a standoff with the West over Ukraine and security in Europe.
Moscow announced on Jan. 20 that its navy would stage an array of exercises involving all its fleets from the Pacific to the Atlantic, drawing on 10,000 servicemen, 140 warships and dozens of planes.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Damascus has been a staunch ally of Moscow since Russia launched an air strike campaign in Syria in 2015. Apart from the Hmeimim air base, Russia also controls the Tartus naval facility.
Read the full article here (paywall).
Following up on Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s tweet about the US having “unwavering support” for Ukraine, here is a summary of the call between Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, according to United States Department of State spokesperson Ned Price:
The Secretary reiterated the U.S. commitment to continue to pursue a diplomatic solution to the crisis Moscow has precipitated.
He stated that the United States looks forward to receiving Russia’s written response to the U.S. and NATO papers shared with Moscow last month proposing concrete areas for discussion regarding European security in coordination with our Allies and partners.
He noted the Foreign Minister’s statement that it would be transmitted within the coming days. Secretary Blinken reiterated our ongoing concerns that Russia has the capacity to launch an invasion of Ukraine at any moment and emphasized the need to see verifiable, credible, meaningful de-escalation.
He underscored that, while further Russian aggression against Ukraine would result in a swift, severe, and united Transatlantic response, we remain committed to the diplomatic path and believe that a window remains to resolve the crisis peacefully.
In addition to confirming US support of Ukraine, US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley has also spoken with sources in Ukraine to confirm US support.
A Reuters reporter tweeted that Milley spoke with a Ukrainian counterpart and “reaffirmed unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” according to sources from the Pentagon.
For a second day in a row, top U.S. general Mark Milley spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart and "reaffirmed unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," the Pentagon said.
— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) February 15, 2022
US secretary of state reiterates commitment to diplomatic solution in call with Russian foreign minister
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has tweeted his country’s “unwavering support” for Ukraine.
On my call today with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, I reiterated our commitment to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis Moscow precipitated. I re-emphasized our unwavering support for Ukraine.
— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) February 15, 2022
Updated
The New York Times’ Moscow bureau chief, Anton Troianovski, writes that following his joint press conference with Vladimir Putin, German chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters in a separate briefing that “NATO membership for Ukraine is not on the agenda”.
Scholz said:
Everyone must step back a bit here and make it clear to themselves that we just can’t have a possible military conflict over a question that is not on the agenda.
It is the question of leadership ability for all involved – in Russia, in Ukraine, in NATO – to make sure that we don’t have an absurd situation that would be about something like that.
After leaving the Kremlin tonight, Scholz had a separate news conference with German-speaking reporters. In it, he made it clear that he was seeking to formalize Ukraine's non-membership in NATO as a way of averting war: pic.twitter.com/o1nHHUI7WD
— Anton Troianovski (@antontroian) February 15, 2022
Scholz's comments come after Zelensky yesterday also left the door open to negotiation over future NATO membership, saying the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO could be “like a dream.” https://t.co/SVVryM9wSa pic.twitter.com/tfYIDj2tLL
— Anton Troianovski (@antontroian) February 15, 2022
Andriy, a 34-year-old bank clerk living in Kyiv, was feeling very pleased with the announcement on Tuesday that some Russian troops had started to move away from the border with Ukraine.
First, it seemed to lower the threat of an all-out Russian attack on Kyiv. And second, it meant he might win a bet with his sister.
Most locals are going about their lives as normal.
“She took a plane to Poland on Saturday with her kids because she was reading about all this war threat, but I didn’t believe in it, and also I wanted to stay because had a haircut booked,” he said, as he took a stroll in the sunshine on the central Khreshchatyk street on Tuesday afternoon.
“We had a bet about whether the Russians would attack,” he said.
In recent days, many Kyiv residents, while alarmed by the military buildup, have shared Andriy’s scepticism about American warnings that their lives were about to be disrupted by missile barrages and that tank incursions would come to pass.
From the UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson:
I thank President @vonderleyen for her close cooperation on sanctions so far.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) February 15, 2022
We will continue working with our allies to prepare a package of economic measures that would punish Russia if Ukraine's sovereignty is breached.
Russia failed to attend a meeting of members of the OSCE, the world’s largest security body, to explain its military buildup near the Ukraine border, a source confirmed to Agence France-Presse
Kyiv had requested the meeting with Russia and other members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe to “discuss the reinforcement and movement of Russian forces along our border” under the so-called Vienna Document.
The agreement requires the Vienna-based body’s 57 members to share information about their military forces and notify each other about major activities.
“The United States welcomes the decision by Ukraine to call for this meeting,” Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the OSCE, told the closed-door session.
“Unfortunately and regrettably, though perhaps not surprisingly, the Russian Federation has absented itself today,” he added, according to his statement.
Regions in Ukraine where Russians are allegedly facing human rights abuses are occupied by Russia, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has said.
Vadym Prystaiko responded to claims by Vladimir Putin that there were human rights abuses in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine:
Strangely enough when he claims that Russians are threatened in Ukraine, the only place where Russians are threatened in Ukraine is occupied by Russians as territory.
He added that it was a “a very unfortunate development” that the Russian parliament had called for the two regions of Ukraine, seized by Russian-backed separatists, to be recognised as independent republics.
US President Joe Biden will give remarks on the situation between Ukraine and Russia from the White House at 3.30pm EST (8.30pm GMT).
Biden “will reiterate that the United States remains open to high-level diplomacy in close coordination with our Allies, building on the multiple diplomatic off-ramps we and our Allies and partners have offered Russia in recent months,” the White House said.
Updated
What exactly does Putin want in Ukraine?
The websites of Ukraine’s defence ministry, armed forces, state banks Privatbank and Oschadbank have been targeted by cyberattacks that could have could have Russian origins, according to reports.
In a statement posted to its Facebook page, Ukraine’s national cybersecurity agency said the internet banking of Privat bank and Oshchadbank - two of the country’s largest financial institutions - were under attack but that some services were still functioning. It added that for now there are no risks to citizens’ money.
Oshadbank confirmed the cyber attack saying that it resulted in slowing down of some of its systems. “There’s a possibility of further attacks,” says PrivatBank.
The Ministry of Defense and Ukraine’s Armed Forces’ public-facing websites are not currently accessible.
The defence ministry site showed an error message saying the site was “undergoing technical maintenance”. The ministry tweeted that its website was apparently under a cyber attack and it was working on restoring access to it.
The Ukrainian Centre for Strategic Communications and Information Security did not say who was responsible for the attack, but a statement suggested it was pointing the finger at Russia:
It is not ruled out that the aggressor used tactics of little dirty tricks because its aggressive plans are not working out on a large scale
Updated
Russia’s president said he was “ready to work further” with the west on how to de-escalate the crisis on the Ukrainian border while Germany’s chancellor said the diplomatic channels were “not yet exhausted”, at a joint press conference also marked by subtle swipes and simmering historical resentment.
“We are ready to work further together, we are ready to go down the negotiations track”, said Vladimir Putin, who denied that his country was seeking an invasion of Ukraine.
“As to whether we want [war]. Of course not! That’s why we have made these proposals about negotiations, the results of which should be an agreement about equal security for all countries, including ours.”
But Putin also complained he could not “turn a blind eye” to how Washington and Nato “freely interpreted” the principle of the indivisibility of security, that no country should strengthen its security at the expense of others.
German leader Olaf Scholz, who travelled to Moscow a day after a state visit to Kyiv, said he refused to describe the diplomatic situation as “hopeless”.
“For my generation war in Europe has become unthinkable,” the centre-left politician said. Politics, he added, had to ensure “that it remains that way.”
Ukraine’s defence ministry has confirmed that its website likely experienced a cyber attack today.
❗️Сайт МОУ зазнав, ймовірно, DDoS-атаки: фіксувалася надмірна кількість звернень на секунду.
— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 15, 2022
Проводяться техроботи з відновлення штатного функціонування.
Комунікація через сторінки в FB та Twitter, сайти АрміяInform https://t.co/ukMW41irPW та Армія FM https://t.co/IpDnBXoMXw.
The United States has not seen evidence yet of any Russian troop pullback near Ukraine, Washington’s ambassador to the United Nations said.
In a statement provided by her spokesperson, US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said:
It would be welcome news if it is legitimate. We have not seen evidence of that yet.
Cyber attack on Ukrainian defence ministry website, banks – reports
Ukraine’s cybersecurity centre said websites of the Ukrainian defence ministry and banks Privatbank and Oshadbank have been subject under a cyber attack, Russia’s TASS news agency reported.
The Ukrainian cybersecurity centre said Russia could be to blame for the attack, TASS reported.
A message on the home page of the Ukrainian defence ministry website said it was under maintenance.
Confirmed – cyber attack hits two of #Ukraine's largest state banks, as well as websites of Ukraine's Defense Ministry and Armed Forces.
— Anastasiia Lapatina (@lapatina_) February 15, 2022
The government suggests attackers resorted to "petty mischief", because "by and large, (their) aggressive plans aren't working".
In Washington, the secretary of state, Antony Blinken is on the phone to his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, in the wake of positive noises from Lavrov about possible talks on intermediate-range missiles and other measures to reduce military risks.
These are the sort of discussions the US and Nato allies have offered to hold in the written proposals they sent to Moscow.
Joe Biden is due to speak to Emmanuel Macron later today, the White House says.
Meanwhile, the Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, has been telling CNN, that her government so far see no signs of Russian withdrawal. She said:
We haven’t seen any de-escalation yet. We believe it when we see it but we don’t see it right now.
She warned that even if the Russians pull back, it will by no means be the end of the threat to Ukraine.
Putting the military around Ukraine and pulling them off is a tactic to confuse and tire the West. You know the fairy tale of a boy who cried wolf.
Only Ukraine and NATO should determine Kyiv’s bid to join the alliance, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said after meeting his Italian counterpart Luigi Di Maio today.
Kuleba said:
No one but Ukraine and NATO members should have a say in the discussions about Ukraine’s future NATO membership.
Summary
Here is a summary of the main news so far on another intense day of diplomacy aimed at averting war in Ukraine.
- Russia announced it is withdrawing troops from near Ukraine’s borders, but Kyiv and western diplomats voiced caution, saying they needed to see what Moscow did.
- The announcement from a Russian defence ministry spokesman did not reveal the numbers of troops being drawn down. Western officials estimate more than 60% of Russian ground forces have massed near Ukraine, with some units having travelled from the Russian Far East.
- Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said he had seen no sign yet of a withdrawal of troops and equipment from Ukraine’s border.
- Nato’s scepticism was echoed by UK prime minister Boris Johnson, who described the intelligence the UK government is seeing as “not encouraging”. Russian field hospitals were being constructed near Ukraine, which “only can be construed as preparation for an invasion” Johnson said.
- The Russian government mocked western claims of an imminent invasion, while Vladimir Putin said western assurances that Ukraine would not join Nato anytime soon were not good enough. Putin was speaking after he met German chancellor Olaf Scholz, where the Russian president again claimed that “human rights violations” were taking place in two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine.
- The status of the self-declared ‘republics’ of Donetsk and Luhansk came into focus, after the Russian Duma called on Putin to recognise them as independent. Western leaders, including Stoltenberg at Nato and the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, warned this would be a violation of international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty.
- Scholz, who like French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to Putin from one end of a very large table, welcomed the pullback of Russian troops and said diplomacy was not exhausted.
- The German leader reiterated Berlin’s view that the conviction of the Russian leader Alexei Navalny was not in line with the rule of law. Navalny was undergoing another criminal trial on Tuesday on charges widely believed to be trumped up that could land him in prison for 15 more years. His supporters fear that international attention on Ukraine, which is diverting attention from his trial, means the chances of him being killed in prison are far higher.
That’s all from me, Jennifer Rankin, as I hand over to Leonie Chao-Fong. Thank you for following so far.
Western officials say they have seen no sign of Russian de-escalation, but instead continuing reinforcements of forces close to the Ukrainian border, writes the Guardian’s diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour.
“We see no sign of Russian de-escalation,” western officials said. “We see the opposite. We have seen reinforcements of combat and other capabilities close to the Ukraine border.”
The officials did not rule out a full-scale invasion on Wednesday or Thursday as previously predicted despite firm Russian denials, but seemed to be placing more emphasis on the possibility that Russia will maintain this force level for an extended period. Overall, 60% of Russian land combat forces and 50% of its air combat power were now deployed.
The officials could yet see a Russian “false flag” operation that will trigger an invasion, adding it would be wrong to select a date by which Putin will have to pull back his troops.
The officials continued to insist that Putin has not yet made up his mind, and he may be being pressed by his military about the consequences of a second Russian Afghan-style crisis with body bags coming home to Russia.
The official said the staged meeting between Putin and Sergei Lavrov on Monday may reflect a genuine decision by Putin to walk back from the brink, and accept some third-tier diplomatic concessions on arms controls treaty talks that have already been offered to him. A Russian reply to the Nato offer of talks has yet to be received.
The officials added that one consequence of the crisis will be a strengthened Nato presence on the eastern flank and a determination that Nato conducts itself well as a new generation of younger Europeans come to experience the threat of war in Europe for the first time.
Updated
Russian analysts have voiced doubts that the Kremlin will recognise the self-declared Donbass “people’s republics” in eastern Ukraine, a move that could shatter fragile hopes of peace.
Earlier on Tuesday, the Russian Duma called on Vladimir Putin to recognise the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, a popular cause for Russian nationalists that would destroy any hope of salvaging the Minsk accords, a largely unimplemented peace plan that emerged in 2015.
In a report on the vote, the Moscow Times highlights the political games being played, in the view of well-connected analysts.
Here is a flavour:
“Recognising the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics means our departure from the Minsk Agreements and the destruction of our position on the resolution of this conflict,” Konstantin Zatulin, a United Russia lawmaker who is deputy chairman of a Duma commission on relations with the former Soviet Union, told the liberal Moscow Echo radio station Tuesday.
“In that sense, [recognition] won’t benefit Russia or the republics.”
“United Russia needed to close the question of the Donbas, and stop itself from being outflanked,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik, a political consultancy, regarding the ruling party’s support for the motion.
“But this doesn’t mean other elements in the government are on side,” said Stanovaya, who believes the Russian foreign ministry is particularly opposed.
“At the end of the day, there won’t be any recognition.”
And here is the Moscow Times’ full story: Russian parliament backs plan to recognise breakaway Ukrainian regions
Updated
Putin says he wants Ukraine Nato question resolved now and western assurances are not good enough
Vladimir Putin has said western assurances that Ukraine will not join Nato anytime soon were not good enough and that Russia needed to resolve the issue now.
Speaking at his joint press conference with German chancellor Olaf Scholz, Putin also said Moscow was ready for talks with the US and Nato on limits for missile deployments and military transparency.
Scholz said Ukraine’s membership was not on the agenda, using the opportunity to make a joke at Putin’s expense, according to the FT’s Max Seddon.
Biting gag from Scholz just now.
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 15, 2022
He says he doesn't think he or Putin will have to face the issue of Ukraine's Nato membership while they're in office.
*pause*
[looks at Putin] "I don't know how long the president intends to stay in office."
Russia has been pressing for a veto on Ukraine’s Nato membership since the Kremlin set out a series of maximalist security demands last December, while members of the alliance have continually stressed their right to allow new countries to join.
Putin also called for the conflict in eastern Ukraine to be resolved through the Minsk peace process.
According to reporter Mark MacKinnon, Scholz also referred to Minsk and the vote in the Russian Duma, where deputies urged Putin to recognise the two breakaway self-declared republics in eastern Ukraine. Scholz said if that vote became reality, the [Minsk] process would end.
Scholz: "If we ignore the Minsk agreement and what was voted on today in the Russian parliament becomes reality, the process would end and that would be a disaster."
— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) February 15, 2022
The Minsk accords, a stalled 2015 agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, brokered by France and Germany, has also been highlighted by French president Emmanuel Macron as a way out of the current impasse.
Updated
Germany's Scholz says diplomacy on Ukraine 'not exhausted'
German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has welcomed the pullback of some Russian troops from near Ukraine on Tuesday, adding that a diplomatic solution remained possible, Reuters reports.
The diplomatic possibilities are far from being exhausted … That we hear now some troops have withdrawn is a good sign, we hope more will follow.
It should be possible to find a solution. No matter how difficult and serious the situation seems to be, I refuse to say it is hopeless.
Speaking at a joint press conference with Vladimir Putin, after their meeting, he restated Germany’s position that the conviction of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was not in line with the rule of law.
Asked about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline connecting Russia and Germany, Scholz said his government was committed to ensuring gas transit works via Ukraine. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has long been seen by western analysts as a way to weaken Ukraine, by allowing Russia to bypass the country.
Updated
Putin says 'no constructive response' to Russian security proposals
Russian president Vladimir Putin has said there has been no constructive response to Russia’s proposals on security and once again claimed there are “human rights violations” in the Donbass in eastern Ukraine.
Putin is speaking at a joint press conference with Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz, following their meeting. On a day when the Russian Duma called for recognition of the self-declared “republics” of Donetsk and Luhanks in eastern Ukraine, Putin also repeated his claim there was genocide in the Donbass region. I’ll bring you more as I get it.
While Boris Johnson is talking tough on sanctions against Russia, it is worth remembering that successive UK governments missed chances to clamp down on suspicious Russian money in London.
Now a former Conservative minister, once at the heart of efforts to clamp down on money laundering in London, goes further, by revealing that during Theresa May’s premiership, No 10 “leant on him” when he tabled amendments to introduce a public register of overseas property owners.
Speaking to the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, Lord Faulks said he had first tried to put the register into the criminal finances bill in 2017 and then again into a government bill on money laundering in 2018. He had described the overseas ownership of dirty money in London as an obscenity.
Faulks, a distinguished barrister and now an independent peer, said he was rung by Downing Street during May’s tenure and told to go to a meeting where he met civil servants from four government departments including the Foreign Office, business officials and the Home Office. They told him to drop the amendments – for which he had a voting majority in the Lords – because they assured him Whitehall had the issue in hand.
He told the Guardian: “I was obviously misled because nothing has subsequently happened. I can only think a deluded desire to protect the City of London has led to all these delays.
“Quite frankly, I was leant on. I was leant on by No 10 Downing Street and summoned to a meeting of officials from all sorts of different departments, who told me it was very unfortunate that I was going to do this because the matter was in hand.”
Meanwhile, Tom Tugendhat, the chair of the foreign affairs committee, said the government had done “nothing” to stem the flow of illicit funds entering Britain from Russia.
We’ve done nothing to stop it. Instead we’ve threatened vague sanctions on individuals whose assets are hidden and have more than enough to accept losing some now and again.
— Tom Tugendhat (@TomTugendhat) February 13, 2022
If we’re serious, we have to choose to act. 14/https://t.co/F8ABe2r1Ix
No 10 pressured me to drop anti-money laundering measures, says ex-minister
Updated
Boris Johnson says Moscow sending mixed signals, still planning invasion
Boris Johnson has said intelligence seen by the British government shows that Russia is still making plans to invade Ukraine, although Moscow was ‘open’ to talks.
In a video statement released after Russia announced it would draw down some troops, the British prime minister said the government was getting “mixed signals” from Moscow.
There are grounds for a conversation about Ukraine, with Ukraine and that’s good. We are seeing Russian openness to conversations.
On the other hand, the intelligence that we are seeing today is still not encouraging. We’ve got Russian field hospitals being constructed near the border with Ukraine, in Belarus, for only what can be construed as a preparation for an invasion.
We have got more battalions, tactical groups actually being being brought closer to the border with Ukraine, according to the intelligence that we are seeing.
He said these “mixed signals” were all the more reason “to remain very tough and very united”. especially on economic sanctions.
UK sanctions were “ready to go” if Russia was “so rash, so reckless” as to launch an invasion. Johnson said. He promised the UK government would take steps “to unpeel the facade” of Russian ownership of companies and property, as well as to stop Russian companies from raising money on London markets.
The government last week missed its own 10 February deadline to have sanctions against Russia in place.
Updated
High-stakes, socially distanced diplomacy in the Kremlin means one thing at least: Vladimir Putin’s very big table is back in the spotlight.
Here are some pictures of German chancellor Olaf Scholz seated some metres away from the Russian president.
With the cameras in the room, the two leaders each have little more on the table than a few notes (white cards for Putin, some A4 papers for Scholz), pens and pencils, and the interpretation devices.
Updated
Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has voiced caution about reports of a Russian troop withdrawal, saying “we believe what we see”.
Writing in English on Twitter, aiming at an international audience, he echoes his earlier comments to Ukrainian media.
On Russian statements regarding withdrawal of some forces from the Ukrainian border. We in Ukraine have a rule: we don’t believe what we hear, we believe what we see. If a real withdrawal follows these statements, we will believe in the beginning of a real de-escalation.
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) February 15, 2022
The Guardian’s Moscow correspondent Andrew Roth has been taking a closer look at the Russian announcement of a troop withdrawal.
Not much info in Southern Military District press release about the withdrawal. Troops will be returning from Crimea to Dagestan, North Ossetia, other regions. Tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and self-propelled artillery are being loaded onto rail. https://t.co/f8V1ahhSH1
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) February 15, 2022
Western military district so far has only announced the return of some anti-air units to base in Nizhny Novgorod region. They had Igla manpads and ZU-23 anti-aircraft cannons. Not really the heavy stuff... https://t.co/sr9Jjr89Bc
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) February 15, 2022
A decision by Russia to recognise two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine would amount to a violation of international law, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg has warned.
Asked about a potential Russian move to recognise the so-called “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk at a Nato press conference, Stoltenberg said:
If that happens, that would be a blatant violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty once again.
He said such an act would be “a violation of international law”, the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, as well as the Minsk agreements.
Russia’s lower house of parliament voted on Tuesday to ask Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, Reuters has reported.
If approved, the move could inflame the wider standoff over Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine that has fuelled western fears of an invasion.
Updated
Stoltenberg said Nato allies were “ready to engage with Russia” on Europe’s security. He said Nato had set out “concrete proposals for a substantive agenda” at a meeting on 26 January of the Nato-Russia council. Nato was ready to listen to Russia concerns, share its own and look for common ground, he said.
Continuing the press conference, Stoltenberg has said Nato needs to see a “significant and enduring withdrawal of forces” of troops and equipment by Russia from Ukraine’s borders.
Asked by Bloomberg what de-escalation looked like, the Nato secretary general said:
What we have to see is a substantial withdrawal of troops, not only troops but equipment.
Stoltenberg said Russia had moved out troops before, only to move them back again. De-escalation meant “significant and enduring withdrawal of forces, troops and not least, heavy equipment”, he said.
In answer to another question from AP, he said:
It’s too early to say whether we see anything on the ground, but we are following very closely what they are doing.
Updated
Nato’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg has reiterated that Ukraine has the right join Nato.
Asked by Interfax Ukraine about the country’s right to join Nato as outlined at the Bucharest summit in 2008, he said: “The Bucharest decision stands. Nato strongly believes that all nations have the right to choose their own path.”
He added that the enlargement of Nato had been “a great success”, that helped to secure democracy, freedom and security in Europe.
Updated
Nato says yet to see 'real de-escalation' from Russia
Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg has said Russia’s announcement of a troop withdrawal gives grounds for optimism, but the alliance has yet to see real de-escalation.
Ahead of a meeting of Nato defence ministers on Wednesday, Stoltenberg is briefing reporters.
On the Russian troop withdrawal announcement, he said:
This gives the grounds for cautious optimism, but so far we have not seen any sign of de-escalation on the ground.
So far we have not seen any de-escalation on the ground, not seen any signs of reduced Russian military presence on the borders of Ukraine, but we will continue to monitor.
He said Russia had amassed a “fighting force unprecedented since the cold war”.
Everything is now on place for a new attack but Russia still has time to step back from the brink, stop preparing for war and start preparing for a peaceful solution.
Updated
India has asked its nationals to “consider leaving” Ukraine on a temporary basis.
The country’s embassy in Kyiv released a letter today saying the move was due to the “uncertainties of the current situation in Ukraine”.
Several countries have updated their travel advice during the crisis.
On Friday, the UK Foreign Office urged British citizens in Ukraine to leave while commercial means were still available. A day before, the US president Joe Biden called for all US citizens to leave, saying “things could go crazy very quickly”.
Updated
German chancellor Olaf Scholz is attending a ceremony in Moscow ahead of his meeting with Putin.
He laid flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.
Updated
While the world’s attention is focused on Ukraine, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is undergoing a new criminal trial in a case widely seen as politically motivated.
Russia could extend Navalny’s imprisonment for up to a further decade in a trial that his supporters warn has been overshadowed by the crisis in Ukraine, writes the Guardian’s Moscow correspondent Andrew Roth.
The Russian opposition leader is accused of embezzling donations to his FBK anti-corruption organisation, which has accused Vladimir Putin of owning a £1bn mansion and other top officials enriching themselves through corrupt schemes.
Navalny has denied the charges and calls them politically motivated.
Maria Pevchikh, a top Navalny ally, has said the danger to Navalny has increased as public attention has increasingly been diverted away from human rights concerns to the potential for a Russian attack on Ukraine.
“The danger to Navalny’s life, ie the probability of him being killed in prison, will increase exponentially depending on what happens in Ukraine,” she wrote. “The odds are pretty bad already, but a full-on Russian invasion barely leaves him any chance to survive.”
Read Andrew’s full report here: Alexei Navalny faces 10 more years in prison as focus shifts to Ukraine crisis
Updated
Putin wants to discuss security with west, says Kremlin
The Kremlin has said it expects “prolonged” talks between Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian president Vladimir Putin, as they have “a lot of issues to discuss”, news agencies in Moscow report.
A Kremlin spokesperson described warnings that Russia will launch a new attack on Ukraine on Wednesday as “baseless hysteria designed to ramp up tensions”.
Asked about the Russian president’s reaction to western reports of a planned invasion, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin was already joking, asking if the western media had published “the exact time in hours when the war will begin”.
Песков рассказал о реакции Путина на статьи про дату «нападения» России на Украину.
— Кремлевский пул РИА (@Kremlinpool_RIA) February 15, 2022
«Он шутит, а не публикуется ли точное время, когда начнётся война?»
The Kremlin would prefer to discuss each other’s concerns with western countries, rather than see “information campaigns”, Peskov said. Russia and western countries should discuss each other’s security concerns in earnest, he said.
This is what President Putin is proposing. This is what President Putin wants.
Addressing the Russian defence ministry announcement about a troop withdrawal, Peskov said Russia had always said troops would return to their base.
We have always said that after the exercises are over … troops would return to their permanent bases. There’s nothing new here. This is a usual process.
Quotes from Reuters, APF and Russian state agency Ria Novosti.
Updated
The meeting between Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and his Polish counterpart Zbigniew Rau appears to be wrapping up.
Rau, who is currently chairing the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, has proposed a new dialogue with Russia, a proposal that Lavrov described as “interesting”, while stressing the importance Moscow attaches to talks with the US and Nato.
Here are the snaps from Reuters:
MOSCOW-POLISH FOREIGN MINISTER RAU SAYS WE PROPOSED NEW DIALOGUE ON SECURITY IN EUROPE
RUSSIA’S LAVROV SAYS PROPOSALS ON RESUMPTION OF TALKS ON EUROPEAN SECURITY AT OSCE ARE “INTERESTING”, BUT OUR DIALOGUE WITH NATO, U.S. IS IMPORTANT
RUSSIAS LAVROV AFTER TALKS WITH POLISH COUNTERPART SAYS TRUST AMONG OSCE COUNTRIES IS AT RECORD LOW
Updated
Expect more footage of Vladimir Putin’s very big table from his meeting with the German chancellor Olaf Scholz. According to the Daily Telegraph’s Moscow correspondent, Nataliya Vasilyeva, Scholz has declined to take a PCR test in Russia, following the example of Emmanuel Macron.
The Kremlin has confirmed Olaf Scholz has followed Macron's example and refused to take a PCR test in Russia.
— Nataliya Vasilyeva (@Nat_Vasilyeva) February 15, 2022
Expect more photo-ops with that table of a dizzying length.
Macron refused to take a PCR test done by Russian authorities, so had to meet the Russian president under strict social-distancing protocols. The French president took a PCR test in France and did an antigen test in Russia administered by his own doctor, but did not want his DNA in the hands of the Russian state, according to French government sources.
'We'll believe in troop withdrawal when we see it' – Ukraine
Ukraine is waiting for evidence that Russian troops really are being pulled back, its foreign minister has said, in response to Moscow’s announcement of a withdrawal of some forces.
Ukraine’s foreign minister said Dmytro Kuleba said:
If we see a withdrawal, we will believe in a de-escalation.
The quote comes from Interfax Ukraine via Reuters.
Updated
Poland’s foreign minister Zbigniew Rau is meeting his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday, as part of continuing diplomatic efforts to avert war.
It comes on the same day as the more high-profile meeting between Germany’s new chancellor Olaf Scholz and Vladimir Putin.
Rau said “a lot can be achieved through dialogue and diplomacy”, according to the Polish Press Agency (PAP). The Polish minister is currently chairing the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which counts Russia, Ukraine, EU countries and the US among its members.
Strengthening the @OSCE's cooperation with 🇷🇺, including efforts to stabilise the security situation and to relieve tensions in the OSCE area, will be the focus of FM @RauZbigniew talks in Moscow.
— Ministry of Foreign Affairs 🇵🇱 (@PolandMFA) February 14, 2022
Selected 🇵🇱🇷🇺 bilateral issues will be also addressed.https://t.co/5QQZbVP4gV
Updated
The spokesperson of Russia’s foreign ministry, Maria Zakharova, has posted this statement on her Facebook page.
February 15 2022 will go down in history as the day of failure of western propaganda war. Embarrassed and destroyed without firing a shot.
Updated
The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would not go ahead, if war broke out between Russia and Ukraine, the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell has said.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he said: “If there is a war between Russia and Ukraine, Nordstream 2 would not become operational.”
Borrell was more direct than Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has avoided giving a clear answer on the issue, although foreign minister Annalena Baerbock has spelt out Berlin’s position.
EU sanctions are agreed by unanimity, and Borrell appears confident he has the backing of all 27 member states.
Borrell also reiterated that the EU was ready to discuss Russia’s security concerns.
Russia says it is returning some troops to base in possible de-escalation
Andrew Roth in Moscow has more on the announcement by Russia’s defence ministry that it will withdraw some of its troops from the border with Ukraine in a possible de-escalation of the threat of a potential invasion.
He cautions that the size of the withdrawal remains unclear and may involve just a fraction of Russia’s forces at the Ukrainian border, which western officials estimate at more than 60% of the country’s ground forces.
He writes:
The announcement of the withdrawal came in a statement from defence ministry spokesman Igor Konoshenkov, who described ongoing exercises that involved forces from “practically all military districts, fleets, and the airborne forces”.
“Units of the Southern and Western Military Districts, which have accomplished their missions, are boarding trains and trucks and will head for their garrisons later today,” Konoshenkov said in the statement.
The defence ministry also released a video of some Russian tanks and other heavy weaponry being loaded on to railway cars, the Interfax news service reported.
Russia’s rouble currency reportedly posted gains following the announcement, indicating that investors hoped this would mark the beginning of a de-escalation of tensions between Russia and the west.
Russia has previously announced the conclusion of military exercises near the Ukrainian border, but social media and satellite photography taken in the following days have not shown considerable changes to Russia’s force posture. Those exercises involved just a small number of troops.
And many of the troops located close to the Ukrainian border are not involved in any formal trainings. When questioned on the buildup, Russia has merely said that it has the right to move troops as it wishes within its own territory.
Russia is holding large joint exercises with Belarus scheduled to end on 20 February. Western countries have warned that those drills could be used as cover to prepare for an attack on Ukraine, while Russia has said those troops will return to base once the exercises have concluded.
Russian government officials moved quickly to accuse the West of hysteria and argue that the withdrawal of troops showed that Nato warnings of an invasion were spurious.
“February 15 2022 will go into history as the day western war propaganda failed,” Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, wrote in a Facebook post after the announcement. “They have been disgraced and destroyed without a single shot being fired.”
Updated
Reporters in Moscow are reacting cautiously to the announcement from the Russian defence ministry that troops are being withdrawn.
We’ve had other Russian troop pullouts before of course, notably in December. Defense Ministry statements can be taken with a pinch of salt, but hopefully the start of a de-escalation of sorts.
— Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) February 15, 2022
Important to note - no confirmation yet. Official wording was “in process of returning” https://t.co/fNJnOZnEFr
— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) February 15, 2022
And here is a view from a correspondent in Kyiv, Olga Tokariuk.
I take the news that Russia announced it begins to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border with extreme caution. First, let's see if they actually do it. Second, last May Russians said the same, but in fact left most military hardware behind, in order to be able to return fast
— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) February 15, 2022
The Russian rouble gained 1.5% soon after Russia’s defence ministry reported that some troops near Ukraine’s border were being withdrawn.
The Russian currency has been under pressure because of investor fears about the impact of further western sanctions.
Russia reported to be returning troops to bases
Some troops in Russia’s military districts adjacent to Ukraine are returning to bases after completing drills, Russia’s defence ministry was quoted as saying on Tuesday, Reuters reports.
Russia’s Interfax news agency cited the ministry as saying that while large-scale drills across the country continued, some units of the Southern and Western military districts have completed their exercises and started returning to bases.
As the FT’s Moscow bureau chief reports, markets are reading this as a sign of de-escalation. For other analysts, it will be too early to tell if this really signals a shift.
Russia is pulling back troops from its southern and western military districts – the Ukrainian border, in other words – after completing “exercises,” the defense ministry says.
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 15, 2022
Could this be de-escalation, as Putin hinted with Lavrov and Shoigu? Currency markets think so pic.twitter.com/sGuNLSm7DT
Updated
UK foreign secretary warns invasion "highly likely"
The UK foreign secretary Liz Truss has said there could be a “long protracted war” between Russia and Ukraine, as she warned an invasion was “highly likely”.
Speaking to Times Radio, Truss said war “will not be easy or simple for Vladimir Putin”, pointing to the defensive weapons supplied to Ukraine by the UK and other allies.
This could be a long, protracted war, which would, of course, create huge damage for both the people of Ukraine and the people of Russia as well as threatening European security.
Earlier on Sky News, Truss said: “It is still the case that an invasion could be imminent, and it is highly likely.”
During a round of media interviews on Tuesday, she was also asked about UK plans to clamp down on Russian oligarch money in London. The foreign secretary had promised laws would be in place by 10 February, but the timing has slipped, raising concerns the government was struggling to frame the sweeping new laws.
The foreign secretary told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme there was still a British presence in Kyiv as it is “important that we are supporting British citizens” in Ukraine. Some UK staff had been moved to Lviv in western Ukraine, while some remained in Kyiv, she said.
And in case you missed it: the Observer profiled Truss’s instagram diplomacy, following her photo opportunity on Red Square last week. Since she became foreign secretary five months ago, more than 700 photos featuring Truss have been uploaded to the government’s official photo-sharing website Flickr – an average of one photo for every five hours in the job.
This is Jennifer Rankin, taking over the liveblog from Samantha Lock.
Updated
Satellite images reportedly show new Russian military activity near Ukraine
New satellite images released by a US company reportedly show a flurry of Russian military activity at several locations near Ukraine, including Belarus, Crimea and western Russia.
Maxar Technologies, which has been tracking the buildup of Russian forces on Ukraine’s border for weeks, said on Tuesday that images taken on Sunday and Monday captured significant new activity showing increased military activity in the regions. The images could not be independently verified by Reuters.
Maxar pointed to the arrival of several large deployments of troops and attack helicopters as well new deployments of ground attack aircraft and fighter-bomber jets to forward locations.
The images also captured the departure of multiple ground forces units from existing garrisons along with other combat units seen in convoy formation, Maxar said.
Buzzfeed eastern Europe correspondent Christopher Miller also shared some images purported to be showing “Russia’s continuing buildup in the past 48 hours”.
New Sukhoi Su-34 fighter jet deployment at Primorsko-Akhtarsk Air Base, Russia. Feb. 13. 📸 @Maxar pic.twitter.com/PaP2w0vK4V
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 15, 2022
Updated
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has thanked the US and Canada for their financial support in the face of escalating tension with Russia.
Zelenskiy thanked the two leaders on Tuesday. He tweeted:
We are grateful to the United States for providing substantial financial support of $1 billion and $3 billion available for projects in Ukraine. Thank you [president Joe Biden] for the quick decision and concrete results after our conversation.
Thank you Justin Trudeau for your timely decision to provide additional half a billion dollar package of financial assistance … we are much stronger together.”
Strategic Partnership in actions - we are grateful to the United States for providing substantial financial support of $ 1 billion and $ 3 billion available for projects in Ukraine. Thank you @POTUS for the quick decision and concrete results after our conversation! 🇺🇦 🤝 🇺🇸
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 15, 2022
Updated
Germany urges Russia to 'withdraw its troops' around Ukraine
Germany says it is up to Russia to de-escalate the conflict around Ukraine, and has called for Moscow to withdraw its troops, as chancellor Olaf Scholz prepares to meet president Vladimir Putin over the crisis.
Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock issued a statement on Tuesday, saying:
The situation is particularly dangerous and can escalate at any moment.
The responsibility for de-escalation is clearly with Russia, and it is for Moscow to withdraw its troops.
The EU and Nato are united around Ukraine … we must use all opportunities for dialogue in order to reach a peaceful solution.”
Updated
A Russian invasion of Ukraine is still highly likely and could take place imminently, Britain’s foreign secretary Liz Truss said on Tuesday, adding that the government was on alert for any false flag operations in the next few days.
Truss told Sky News that were Russian troops to enter Ukraine, they could get to Kyiv quickly.
“In terms of the timing of an attack, it could be imminent,” she said. She said Russian troops could get to Kyiv “very, very quickly”.
Updated
British prime minister Boris Johnson will lead a meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee today as western leaders voice concerns a Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen imminently.
Johnson cut short his UK tour to return to London in order to convene the meeting to discuss the UK’s consular response.
He is believed to have received an intelligence briefing upon his return after maintaining there is still time for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.
Foreign secretary Liz Truss will consider whether to change advice to UK diplomats in the country, after it issued new guidance on Friday advising British citizens in Ukraine to leave immediately while commercial flights are still available.
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It could be another turbulent day on the markets after Asian stocks fell sharply today in line with the big losses in London and Europe yesterday.
The FTSE is due to lose about 0.4% at the opening although hopes of more diplomacy in Ukraine could take the edge off investor nerves. Oil has dropped about 1% today while the pound is flat at $1.353 and €1.196.
European Opening Calls:#FTSE 7501 -0.40%#DAX 15032 -0.54%#CAC 6813 -0.57%#AEX 744 -0.53%#MIB 26264 -0.58%#IBEX 8543 -0.36%#OMX 2234 -0.29%#SMI 12022 -0.04%#STOXX 4041 -0.59%#IGOpeningCall
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) February 15, 2022
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Thousands more US service members have boarded flights from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, in preparation for deployment to Poland.
The additional 3,000 soldiers will join the 3,000 who left last month for Poland and Germany.
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Australia’s prime minister has urged China to denounce Russian threats against Ukraine.
Scott Morrison noted that Beijing and Moscow had announced they were pursuing closer relations since more than 100,000 Russian troops were sent to the Ukrainian border.
Morrison told Parliament in Canberra earlier today:
We would expect all nations, all governments around the world, to be denouncing what is taking place with the threats of violence against Ukraine.
I do note that the Chinese government, together with the Russian government, have been banding together on this issue and that the Chinese government has not denounced what is occurring in Ukraine.”
Morrison called on all federal lawmakers to join the Australian government in “urging the Chinese government to denounce those actions and to allow an appropriate response through the United Nations rather than resisting that being done” through its membership of the UN security council.
Japan’s defence minister has also warned of an increased Russian naval presence in the Sea of Japan and the southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk.
Defence minister Nobuo Kishi said in a tweet on Tuesday that “large-scale exercises by the entire fleet during this period are unusual”.
In January-February, the entire Russian Navy fleet announced that it would conduct military exercises in the waters around the base, the Mediterranean Sea, the North Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Pacific Ocean.
It is thought that the intention is to show off the ability to operate in the east and west in response to the recent movement of the Russian army around Ukraine.”
Japan’s ministry of defence also announced today that it has confirmed a total of 24 Russian ships known to have been operating in the waters of the Sea of Japan and the southern Okhotsk Sea since earlier this month, according to Sankei News.
露海軍全艦隊が1-2月、基地周辺海域、地中海、北海、オホーツク海、大西洋、太平洋において軍事演習を実施する旨を発表。この時期の全艦隊による大規模演習は異例。
— 岸 信夫 (@KishiNobuo) February 15, 2022
昨今のウクライナ周辺の露軍の動きと呼応する形で、東西で活動し得る能力を誇示する意図があると考えられる。https://t.co/y5QOaUfciM
Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida will speak with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday, a government source has said, as Tokyo expressed “grave concern” about the risk of a Russian invasion.
Tokyo was preparing for the call on Tuesday evening local time while Kishida said Japan was “watching the situation with grave concern”, Agence France-Presse reports.
Japan’s foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi stressed Tokyo’s support for “the integrity of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territory” in a statement earlier on Tuesday but declined to give details on what form any sanctions might take. He told reporters:
First and foremost, Japan is strongly seeking a resolution through diplomatic dialogue.
But if a Russian invasion takes place, Japan will take appropriate steps including possible sanctions, in response to what has actually happened, and in coordination with the G7 and international community.”
'Crucial window for diplomacy' remains – Johnson and Biden
Following a 40-minute call between Boris Johnson and Joe Biden on Monday night, the two leaders say they believe there remains a “crucial window for diplomacy and for Russia to step back from its threats towards Ukraine”.
Britain said the pair emphasised the importance of unity and, while neither the UK nor the US will send troops to defend Ukraine, they insisted that any further Russian incursion “would result in a protracted crisis for Russia with far-reaching damage for both Russia and the world”.
Scholz to travel to Moscow in a bid to avert war
German chancellor Olaf Scholz will travel to Moscow today to meet Vladimir Putin in a bid to avert war.
Scholz, who was in Kyiv on Monday, warned that any Russian attack on Ukraine would be met with heavy economic consequences, adding that the “territorial integrity of Ukraine is not negotiable”.
The chancellor has said he will hammer home the message from the west that they are open to dialogue about Russia’s security concerns but will impose sanctions if it invades Ukraine.
“We are ready for very far-reaching and effective sanctions in coordination with our allies,” he said on Monday.
Germany is Russia’s number one trade partner in Europe and the biggest consumer of Russian natural gas.
Scholz is under pressure to make his presence felt on the international stage after succeeding Angela Merkel last year.
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Canada’s announcement on Monday that it will supply lethal weapons to Ukraine has been labelled “unacceptable” by Russian ambassador to Ottawa, Oleg Stepanov.
“Any supply of arms to a country with an unresolved internal armed conflict is unacceptable. This does not bring peace closer and only prolongs and aggravates the fratricidal conflict in Ukraine,” Stepanov told Russian state news agency TASS.
“By providing weapons, western countries are pushing the Kiev regime to continue the war against its own people,” he added.
💬Посол О.В.Степанов: Решение властей Канады о поставках летального вооружения на Украину неприемлемо и лишь усугубит текущий конфликт.
— Russia in Canada (@RussianEmbassyC) February 15, 2022
Предоставляя оружие, западные страны подталкивают киевский режим к продолжению войны против собственного народа.
👉https://t.co/Cz7UOGPyDL pic.twitter.com/MTcMJNMx8q
Bolsonaro justifies visit to Russia
Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro is facing backlash after deciding to go ahead with an official visit to Russia to meet with Putin on Wednesday in what has been described as awkward timing, amid the tense standoff between Moscow and the west over Ukraine.
Bolsonaro will go ahead with the visit despite pressure from Brazil’s traditional ally the United States and within his own cabinet.
He says the visit is to build trade relations. Agence France-Presse quotes an interview with Bolsonaro on Radio Tupi on Saturday:
President Putin has invited me. Brazil depends in large parts on fertilisers from Russia, Belarus. We pray to God that peace may reign in the world.
We will also take with us a group of ministers who will deal with issues such as energy, defence and agriculture.”
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Stock markets under pressure again
Shares in Asia came under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday amid continued concerns about the potential for conflict in Ukraine.
The Nikkei slipped is down 0.73% in the afternoon session, while the Kospi index in Seoul is off 0.66% and the ASX is off 0.3% in Sydney. Hong Kong is also down around 0.7% but shares on the mainland are doing better, up 0.4%.
Even so, the losses are mild compared to the bloodbath in London and Europe on Monday where somes indices such as the Dax in Germany shed 2%.
Kyle Rodda at online trader IG in Melbourne said the outlook for the German economy was very uncertain with the possibility of war to the east.
War in Europe would a blow to the economy and a driver of even greater inflation, in what would be a one-two punch for the Dax that would almost certainly see it break down.
How the crisis looks from Kyiv
As US intelligence sources warn of an imminent Russian invasion, residents of the Ukrainian capital are refusing to be cowed.
The Guardian’s Shaun Walker is in Kyiv and tells Michael Safi that, on the face of it, much of the city is continuing life as normal. Restaurants are open, shops are full and the snow-lined streets buzz with people going about their normal business. This is in stark contrast to many foreign diplomats who are scrambling to leave the Ukrainian capital before any military action that could begin within days or even hours.
But how likely is the full-scale military assault being warned of by western intelligence agencies? And is there a diplomatic solution that could be sold to Vladimir Putin that would also satisfy the Ukrainian government?
Listen to our latest podcast episode: How the Ukraine crisis looks from Kyiv.
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Welcome
Hello, welcome to our live coverage of the Ukraine crisis, I’m Samantha Lock.
This morning the German chancellor Olaf Scholz will fly to Moscow for a meeting with president Vladimir Putin, after spending Monday in Kyiv in the latest round of diplomacy aimed at averting a war in Europe.
His visit comes as the US state department urged its citizens in Belarus to leave, citing an “increase in unusual and concerning Russian military activity near the border with Ukraine”.
Here are some of the other recent developments:
- Brazillian president Jair Bolsonaro announced he would fly to Russia on Tuesday to meet Putin.
- During a carefully choreographed meeting on Monday with Putin, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said “there is always a chance” of reaching an agreement with the West over Ukraine.
- Canada has said it will send lethal military weaponry to Ukraine with a promise to loan Kyiv $500m to help defend itself in the face of Russian aggression.
- British PM Boris Johnson and US president Joe Biden agreed there “remained a crucial window for diplomacy and for Russia to step back from its threats towards Ukraine”.
- Global stock markets steadied a little on Tuesday after taking a battering on Monday because of concern about a possible conflict in Ukraine.
- Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday called on the country’s people to fly flags and sing the national anthem in unison on 16 February, a date that some Western media predict Russian could invade.
- UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres spoke with the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine on Monday to express his serious concern over the heightened tensions and insisted “there is no alternative to diplomacy”.
- Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu told Putin that some of the drills were “ending” and more would end “in the near future”, signalling a possible easing of the crisis.
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