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Summary of key events
Here’s a roundup of recent developments on the Ukraine crisis.
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The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has invited Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden to attend a summit aimed at de-escalating the Ukraine crisis, and the leaders have agreed in principle, amid further US warnings that war is imminent. The proposal for the summit – which will proceed only if Russian does not invade Ukraine – followed a flurry of phone calls Macron made in an attempt to de-escalate tensions, including with Boris Johnson, Biden and two calls with Putin.
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The US administration signalled its willingness to work towards a diplomatic solution, but has reiterated its view that Russian forces have been ordered to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine. In a statement, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said “We are always ready for diplomacy. We are also ready to impose swift and severe consequences should Russia instead choose war. And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon.”
- Meanwhile, the US claims Russian forces are “creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps” in the event of an invasion, according to a leaked letter sent by the US to the UN human rights chief, Michelle Bachelet
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The US administration has reportedly prepared an initial package of sanctions against Russia that includes barring US financial institutions from processing transactions for major Russian banks. Reuters is reporting the measures aim to hurt the Russian economy by cutting the “correspondent” banking relationships between targeted Russian banks and US banks that enable international payments. The sanctions will be implemented only if Russia invades, despite Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy earlier calling for sanctions to be brought in before Russia takes such action.
- Satellite images appear to show new deployments of Russian troops and armoured equipment to farms, forests and fields, with some sitting just 15 kilometres from the border with Ukraine. The images, which were captured on Sunday, show “a change in the pattern of the previously observed deployments”. Russian troops in Belarus numbering 30,000 were supposed to finish up military exercises on Sunday, but it was announced they would be extended as tensions continue to rumble. The Kremlin’s extension will be seen as an ominous sign in Ukraine.
- The US embassy in Russia told Americans in the country to “have evacuation plans” amid reports of “threats of attacks”, escalating the growing US-Russia tensions that some are already likening to a new Cold War. Russia hit back at the embassy’s alert on Sunday, which said attacks in cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg were a possibility and urged American citizens to be alert and “avoid crowds”.
We’ll launch our new Ukraine liveblog shortly.
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Following on from the below post about new satellite imagery, Maxar have also observed “a number of new field deployments are also seen northwest of Belgorod”, about 30 kilometres from the Russian side of the border with the separatist-controlled Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine.
Maxar said “much of the equipment and troops [are] positioned in or near forested areas. Other company-sized units are deployed within farm and/or industrial areas.”
Satellite images appear to show new deployments of Russian troops and armoured equipment to farms, forests and fields, with some sitting just 15 kilometres from the border with Ukraine, according to US satellite imagery company Maxar.
The images, captured on Sunday, of the military developments near the Russian side of the border with the separatist-controlled Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine show “a change in the pattern of the previously observed deployments” of tanks, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and support equipment that have sparked concerns of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine in recent weeks.
Maxar analysis noted that previously, deployments at or near existing military garrisons and training areas – including several large deployments at or near a military base in Soloti, Russia.
However the most recent satellite imagery appears to show that most of the combat units and support equipment amassed at Soloti have departed the area. “Extensive vehicle tracks and some convoys of armored equipment are seen throughout the area,” Maxar said.
Maxar said:
Some equipment has also been deployed east of nearby Valuyki, Russia in a field approximately 15 kilometers north of the Ukraine border.”
Experts consulted by Reuters said that while the correspondent banking tool lacks the punch of an Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) designation, which freezes a bank’s assets, they could still deal a meaningful blow by making it difficult to transact in US dollars, the global reserve currency.
“Since a significant number of global trade transactions are in US dollars this is a sanction with bite, but without the more complicated and deadly sanction of being placed on the SDN list and having all assets in the US or in the hands of US persons frozen,” said Washington lawyer Kay Georgi, who specialises in international trade.
The report also states that Washington plans to target individuals and companies, including top Russian financial institutions such as VTB Bank, Sberbank, VEB, and Gazprombank, by placing them on the SDN list.
This effectively removes them from the US banking system, banning their trade with Americans and freezing their US assets, the sources familiar with the package who spoke to Reuters said.
Reuters is reporting that the US administration has prepared an initial package of sanctions against Russia that includes barring US financial institutions from processing transactions for major Russian banks.
The report, which cites three sources familiar with the US plans, said the measures aim to hurt the Russian economy by cutting the “correspondent” banking relationships between targeted Russian banks and US banks that enable international payments.
While the threat of sanctions had already been floated, the plan to cut correspondent banking ties, which underpin global money flows, had not been previously reported.
The sanctions would be implemented only if Russia invades Ukraine.
The reports of the details of the possible financial measures come after vice president Kamala Harris reiterated that the purpose of sanctions is “deterrence” when explaining why the US would not heed Ukraine’s call to bring in sanctions before any Russian invasion.
The White House and Treasury Department declined to comment.
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The letter states that those most likely to be targeted include “Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons”.
Russia creating 'kill list' of Ukrainians - report
Russian forces are ‘creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps’, according to a letter sent by the US to UN human rights chief, Michelle Bachelet, the Washington Post has reported.
The letter, from the US ambassador to the UN, Sheba Crocker, warns that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would create a “human rights catastrophe” with “credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations”. The letter can be read in full here.
US vice-president Kamala Harris has spent the past few days in Munich alongside secretary of state Antony Blinken and other world leaders. On Sunday she painted the Ukraine crisis in the context of the second world war, (as did UK prime minister Boris Johnson). “We’re talking about the potential for war in Europe,” said Harris. “It’s been over 70 years, and through those 70 years ... there has been peace and security.”
We are working with our Allies and partners to stand up for international rules and norms. Our position is very clear in respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states. pic.twitter.com/MkJfwr54kH
— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) February 21, 2022
Just 20 minutes walk from the ornate Hotel Bayerischer Hof, where world leaders gathered this weekend for the Munich security conference, lies No 12 Arcisstrasse, the shuttered brown ornamental building known as the Führerbau.
On a cold grey Sunday morning, the building, now temporarily closed and in disrepair, has a forbidding air. Near the steps at the front is a small plaque with the bare inscription in German, Czech and Slovak: “In this building, on 29 September, 1938, the Munich agreement was signed, which led to the smashing of the Czechoslovak republic.”
No mention is made of the signatories, including Adolf Hitler and then British prime minister Neville Chamberlain, who, fearful of a renewed European war, appeased Hitler by agreeing to cede the Sudetenland. Hitler had promised this was his last territorial claim in Europe. The empty building, its interior preserved, stands as a monument to the ability of diplomats to misread their opponent.
Back in the conference hall, this history hung heavy. No speech was complete without a reference to the threat of a return to war in the heart of Europe, or to an impending refugee crisis.
Read more from Patrick Wintour in Munich.
Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine have claimed that two civilians have been killed in shelling by the Ukrainian government forces, Reuters are reporting, citing Russian state news outlet RIA.
It follows days of increased shelling in eastern Ukraine, amid the continued Russian military presence along the border the countries share and the evacuation of some residents in the separatist-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions to Russia.
There was no confirmation from the Ukrainian government and no independent verification of the claim.
RIA cited representatives of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic as saying that the shelling occurred late on Sunday.
Kyiv and the rebels, at war for the last eight years, have accused each other of increased ceasefire violations over the last few days and the use of heavy weaponry such as mortars and artillery.
Russia has denied claims by the United States that it believes an invasion of Ukraine is imminent and that president Vladimir Putin could rely on “false flag” operations to justify invading.
Ukraine has said it will not respond to provocation from the rebels.
White house press secretary Jen Psaki has just released a statement following the announcement that Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit to discuss ongoing tensions.
Psaki said “we are committed to pursuing diplomacy until the moment an invasion begins”, but noted that “currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon”.
Psaki said:
Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov are scheduled to meet later this week in Europe, provided Russia does not proceed with military action. President Biden accepted in principle a meeting with President Putin following that engagement, again, if an invasion hasn’t happened.
We are always ready for diplomacy. We are also ready to impose swift and severe consequences should Russia instead choose war.”
Delving deeper into the announcement that Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin have “accepted the principle” of a summit proposed by French president Emmanuel Macron to “discuss security and strategic stability in Europe”.
The statement released by Élysée Palace notes that “the substance” of the proposed summit will have to be prepared by US secretary of state Antony Blinken and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov when they meet on Thursday.
Both the proposed summit, as well as Blinken’s meeting with Lavrov, are conditional on Russia not invading Ukraine.
The in-principle agreement to the summit was announced after Macron’s second phone call with Putin, amid his push to avoid Russia invading Ukraine.
Details of the second call were announced well after 2am in Moscow. You can read more in this updated report from Julian Borger, Patrick Wintour and Jon Henley.
Putin-Biden summit agreed in principle
The Elysee Palace has released a statement announcing that both Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin have agreed to the idea of a summit “to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe”.
The statement follows French president Emmanuel Macron speaking on the phone to both Biden and Putin.
The statement said “it can only be held at the condition that Russia does not invade Ukraine”.
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Sunday Summary
Here’s a round-up of Sunday’s top headlines on the Ukraine crisis.
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UK prime minister Boris Johnson spoke of “welcome signs” of finding a diplomatic solution on Sunday evening after a phone call with French president Emmanuel Macron, who earlier spoke to Russian president Vladimir Putin. It came as world leaders took part in a flurry of international calls on Sunday evening. Macron and Putin agreed to try to secure a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and spoke of plans for an urgent summit on the future of Ukraine. Johnson also urged the withdrawal of Russian troops.
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But other developments were less optimistic. US secretary of state Antony Blinken reiterated on Sunday that Putin has made the call to invade and is moving forward. It came as CBS News reported the US has intelligence Russian troops have been given the order to invade and are preparing battle formations. US rhetoric that Putin’s mind is made up has been stronger than some European leaders in recent days.
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Putin blamed Ukrainian ‘provocations’ for the escalation of the current situation in the Donbas, where there has been shelling in recent days, in his call with Macron. It follows western leaders warning on Saturday at the Munich Security Conference that Russia would create false grievances and sow disinformation as a potential pretext for an invasion, while also engaging in diplomacy in a method Johnson said was intended to spread confusion for its own sake.
- Russian troops in Belarus numbering 30,000 were supposed to finish up military exercises on Sunday, but it was announced they would be extended as tensions continue to rumble. The Kremlin’s extension will be seen as an ominous sign in Ukraine.
- The US embassy in Russia told Americans in the country to “have evacuation plans” amid reports of “threats of attacks”, escalating the growing US-Russia tensions that some are already likening to a new Cold War. Russia hit back at the embassy’s alert on Sunday, which said attacks in cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg were a possibility and urged American citizens to be alert and “avoid crowds”.
- Russia would be “cut off from international financial markets” if it invades Ukraine, the European Commision president warned on Sunday night. Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Union’s executive branch, told ARD public TV that Russia would face “enormous and consequential” sanctions upon an invasion but that the window to diplomacy is “still open”.
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The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, however, called for sanctions on Russia now and not after a possible invasion of Ukraine. But so far western leaders have rejected his calls, with Ursula von der Leyen saying sanctions would only follow a potential invasion.
- Hundreds of people rallied in cities such as Warsaw, Poland and Madrid, Spain to express solidarity with Ukraine and criticise Russia. It comes after fears the Russian aggression might not stop at Ukraine and could extend to areas, like Poland, formerly in Soviet Russia’s sphere of influence. On Sunday, the UK foreign secretary Liz Truss said she believes Putin “will not stop at Ukraine”, arguing that he is looking to piece the Soviet Union back together.
That’s all from me, Jem Bartholomew. I’ll be back soon, now over to my colleague Elias Visontay. Bye for now.
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Brilliant dispatch here from The Guardian just over the Russian border from eastern Ukraine, where civilians have been arriving.
The first stop for Ella Fyodorova after she fled her home in eastern Ukraine was a windblown tent camp just across the Russian border, part of a mass evacuation effort that observers fear may become the pretext for Russia to launch a formal intervention in Ukraine.
“I wanted to stay, but my husband came home, and said: ‘Get your things together, we’re going,’” she said as she wrestled her two-year-old son into a blue snowsuit to walk to the public toilets nearby.
The recent escalation in fighting had not touched her home city of Starobesheve, she said, but warnings from the Russian-backed separatist government of an imminent attack by Ukraine had driven many families to gather their children and flee. Her husband, who dropped her at the border, had to turn back.
Now she sat in the dim light of a medical tent alongside other mothers holding their children, all waiting for the next bus to take them further into Russia. Many left carrying just the basics: clothing, medicine, some food.
“I don’t know where we’re going,” she said. “I don’t know anything. Tomorrow we need to start searching for a place to live...”
Read the full dispatch here.
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Russia to be 'cut off' from global finance upon Ukraine invasion, EC president warns
Russia would be “cut off from international financial markets” if it invades Ukraine, the European Commision president warned on Sunday night.
Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Union’s executive branch, told ARD public TV that Russia would face “enormous and consequential” sanctions upon an invasion but that the window to diplomacy is “still open”.
“Russia would in principle be cut off from the international financial markets,” Von der Leyen said, with sanctions imposed on “all goods we make that Russia urgently needs to modernise and diversify its economy, where we are globally dominant and they have no replacement”.
“The move to sanctions is so enormous and consequential that we know we must always give Russia a chance to return to diplomacy and the negotiating table,” she added. “This window is still open.”
But the European Commision president defied demands from Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to sanction Russia ahead of a potential invasion for its aggression. She said potential sanctions would follow an invasion.
Reuters is reporting that a blast was heard early on Monday in the centre of the city of Donetsk, which is held by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, a Reuters witness said. The origin of the blast was unclear.
US president Joe Biden spoke with French president Emmanuel Macron on Sunday, the White House said, amid western fears that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine.
Biden and Macron discussed the “ongoing diplomacy and deterrence efforts,” the White House said.
The call came after Macron’s calls with Russian president Vladimir Putin, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and UK prime minister Boris Johnson.
Johnson hailed “welcome signs” that diplomacy could still bear fruit on Sunday evening – referring to Putin’s engagement with Macron – and appeared to buck Biden’s rhetoric, which in recent days has said Putin has already made the call to invade.
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Russia hit back at the US embassy in Russia’s advice that Americans in the country should “have evacuation plans” amid media reports of “threats of attacks,” Reuters reports.
Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, questioned if the United States had passed on the information about possible attacks to Russia. “And if not, how is one to understand all of this?” Zakharova said, according to Reuters.
Earlier on Sunday, a security alert posted on the embassy’s website read: “According to media sources, there have been threats of attacks against shopping centers, railway and metro stations, and other public gathering places in major urban areas, including Moscow and St. Petersburg as well as in areas of heightened tension along the Russian border with Ukraine.”
It also advised Americans to “avoid crowds,” “review your personal security plans” and “have evacuation plans that do not rely on US government assistance.”
Boris Johnson says Putin must withdraw troops in Macron call but diplomacy a 'welcome sign'
UK prime minister Boris Johnson and French president Emmanuel Macron agreed during a phone call on Sunday that the next week will be “crucial for diplomacy” as the west looks to avert war between Russia and Ukraine.
“The prime minister spoke to French president Macron tonight about the situation in Ukraine. They updated one another on their respective diplomatic efforts, including president Macron’s call with president Putin today,” a Downing Street spokeswoman said, according to PA.
“The prime minister noted that president Putin’s commitments to president Macron were a welcome sign that he might still be willing to engage in finding a diplomatic solution. The prime minister stressed that Ukraine’s voice must be central in any discussions.
Johnson’s speech at Saturday’s Munich Security Conference warned an invasion of Ukraine would “echo around the world” but said he still held out hope for a diplomatic resolution, marking a departure from recent US rhetoric which appears convinced Putin has decided to invade.
“The leaders agreed on the need for both Russia and Ukraine to meet their commitments under the Minsk Agreements in full. They also underscored the need for President Putin to step back from his current threats and withdraw troops from Ukraine’s border.
“The prime minister and president Macron agreed next week would be crucial for diplomacy and resolved to stay in close contact.”
Meanwhile, US president Joe Biden also spoke to Macron. More to follow.
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US embassy tells Americans in Russia to "have evacuation plans"
The US embassy in Russia has warned Americans in the country “avoid crowds” and “have evacuation plans” to leave Russia, citing media reports of “threats of attacks.”
The advice marks a further deterioration of US-Russia relations in what some observers are already calling a new Cold War.
A security alert posted on the embassy’s website on Sunday read: “According to media sources, there have been threats of attacks against shopping centers, railway and metro stations, and other public gathering places in major urban areas, including Moscow and St. Petersburg as well as in areas of heightened tension along the Russian border with Ukraine.”
Important security alert from the U.S. Mission to Russia 👇https://t.co/wqhOvy35yH
— Jason P. Rebholz (@USEmbRuPress) February 20, 2022
The US embassy alert continues below.
“Actions to Take:
- “Monitor local and international media for updates.
- “Avoid crowds.
- “Notify friends and family of your safety.
- “Be aware of your surroundings.
- “Stay alert in locations frequented by tourists/Westerners.
- “Review your personal security plans.
- “Carry proper identification, including a US passport with a current Russian visa.
- “Have evacuation plans that do not rely on US government assistance.”
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Canada’s foreign minister said she is postponing a trip to France amid rising tensions in Ukraine.
“Due to rising tensions in Ukraine, I have made the decision to postpone my trip to France and to immediately fly back home to Canada,” Mélanie Joly said on Twitter.
She added: “We will be relentless in our pursuit of a diplomatic solution. There is still time for Russia to choose the path of de-escalation and dialogue.”
Due to rising tensions in Ukraine, I have made the decision to postpone my trip to France and to immediately fly back home to Canada.
— Mélanie Joly (@melaniejoly) February 20, 2022
We will be relentless in our pursuit of a diplomatic solution. There is still time for Russia to choose the path of de-escalation and dialogue.
It comes after Joly on Thursday said Canada has prepared a “vast array” of strong sanctions targeting Russian “people and entities”. In an interview with the National Post, Joly said sanctions would be imposed on “day one” of a Ukrainian invasion.
Canada is a founding member of Nato. Unity was a central message of speeches from western leaders, including US vice-president Kamala Harris, at Saturday’s Munich Security Conference. (Joly also attended.) Harris warned Russian president Vladimir Putin not to underestimate the west’s strength.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, however, asked for sanctions before a potential invasion, questioning the wisdom of waiting until after Ukraine is attacked. The US on Sunday resisted those calls.
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Hundreds of people demonstrated in Madrid, Spain against Russian aggression and in solidarity with Ukraine on Sunday, marking another international rally expressing disgust at Russian president Vladimir Putin’s actions.
Newswire AFP reports the details from Madrid:
Around 500 people, many of them Ukrainians, rallied in central Madrid on Sunday against the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Participants waved blue and yellow Ukranian flags or wore them draped over their backs in the Plaza de Espana square.
“Stop Putin and “Say yes to Ukraine”, were among the signs held up at the demonstration.
“We are all worried, we are fearful because don’t know what will happen tomorrow,” Ruslan Sendzyuk, a Ukrainian living in Madrid, told AFPTV at the protest.
The West accuses Russian president Vladimir Putin of massing tens of thousands of troops around Ukraine’s borders in recent weeks in preparation for an invasion.
Russia has denied such plans and has in turn accused Ukraine of breaching international agreements.
Moscow has asked for the withdrawal of Western forces that have been deployed in eastern Europe, including in Poland, following the end of the Cold War.
What exactly does Putin want in Ukraine?
Here’s The Guardian’s helpful explainer video, with Moscow correspondent Andrew Roth, asking what Russia’s president is seeking from aggression against Ukraine.
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The US on Sunday refused to impose sanctions on Russia before a widely anticipated Russian invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reports, despite mounting criticism from Kyiv.
It comes after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy questioned the wisdom of sanctioning Russia only after it invades, which he implied would be too late and come after destruction inflicted upon Ukraine, at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. Reuters reports:
“The purpose of the sanctions in the first instance is to try to deter Russia from going to war. As soon as you trigger them that deterrence is gone,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN’s “State of the Union” show.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and a growing chorus of critics argue that if the United States and its allies are so certain Putin plans to invade, they should apply sanctions now.
“You tell me 100% that there will be war in a few days’ time. What are you waiting for?” a frustrated Zelenskiy asked the audience at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, repeating an earlier call on the West to impose sanctions on Russia now instead of later.
“We will not need your sanctions after there is a bombardment, or after our state is shot at, or if we have no more borders, we do not have an economy, or parts of our state is occupied,” Zelenskiy said.
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US still believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, Blinken says
US president Joe Biden’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on Sunday the US national security council would meet to review the latest intelligence on Ukraine and “check plans”.
Blinken toured the TV political shows to press home the Biden administration’s message that the US remains convinced that Russia is poised to invade Ukraine.
“As president Biden said, everything we are seeing tells us that the decision we believe president Putin has made to invade is moving forward,” he told CBS’s Face the Nation.
Pressed to give details of why the US continues to believe an invasion is imminent despite repeated Russian denials, Blinken pointed to what he called “provocations” and “false flag operations” that could be used by Putin to justify overrunning its neighbour.
Russian-backed separatists have increased shelling in east Ukraine in the past few days, and Blinken said that could be used as a pretext.
“Now we have the news just this morning that the ‘exercises’ Russia was engaged with in Belarus, with 30,000 forces, which were supposed to end this weekend will now continue because of tensions in eastern Ukraine – tensions created by Russia.”
Blinken’s interviews came amid a swirl of diplomatic activity that offered little clarity about what lies ahead. As the top US diplomat was warning that Russia was moving ahead with invasion plans, Vladimir Putin and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, were agreeing to push for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.
Amid a swirl of claim and counter-claim, CBS reported that according to US intelligence actual orders had been given to Russian troops amassed close to the Ukraine border to proceed with an invasion.
Read Ed Pilkington’s full story from New York here:
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CBS News: US has intel Russian troops have orders to invade
The US has intelligence Russian troops have been granted the go ahead to invade Ukraine, CBS News is reporting, with commmanders making “specific plans” for battlefield manoeuvers.
That’s according to David Martin, CBS News national security correspondent, who told TV show Face The Nation about the intel.
“The [US] intelligence says that Russian troops have actually received orders now to proceed with the invasion,” Martin said.
“So not only are they moving up closer and closer to the border and to these attack positions, the commanders on the ground are making specific plans for how they would manoeuver in their sector of the battlefield. They’re doing everything that American commanders would do once they got the order to proceed.”
CBS News’ reporting could not immediately be independently verified by The Guardian. Its report can be viewed here.
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Russia’s ambassador in Washington rejected Western assertions that Moscow was planning an invasion into Ukraine.
“Russia is not trying to take away the territory of other countries” the Russian State News Agency Ria-Novosti cited ambassador Anatoly Antonov as saying on Sunday.
“There are no such plans [to invade Ukraine],” Antonov said.
Antonov also stated that Moscow considered the Donbas region “as part of Ukraine.”
The Russian ambassador added that his country was ready to continue diplomatic efforts to resolve the current tensions and denied the current Russian troop build-up posed a danger to Ukraine
“Russian troops are on sovereign Russian territory. We do not threaten anyone.”
US president Joe Biden said on Friday that, based on the latest American intelligence, he was now “convinced” Russian president Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine.
Biden’s vice-president Kamala Harris has called on Russia “to demonstrate that it is serious” about finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis as Western allies worry Moscow was creating a pretext to invade Ukraine.
In the interview, Antonov further defended the presence of Russian troops in Belarus, saying it did not contradict international law.
Earlier in the day, Belarus’s defence minister, said Russian soldiers would stay in the country after large-scale joint drills were completed on Sunday, a decision that will further fuel fears Moscow is planning an imminent invasion of Ukraine.
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The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) will hold an extraordinary meeting on Monday to find ways to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine, the Polish chairmanship of the European security body said.
“The meeting has been called for Monday,” deputy foreign minister Pawel Jablonski told PAP on Sunday, following a request from Kyiv amid a sharp escalation in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
AFP reports from Warsaw:
OSCE monitors have reported hundreds of artillery and mortar attacks in recent days, in a conflict that has rumbled since 2014 and claimed more than 14,000 lives.
The ceasefire violations come as the United States accuses Russia of planning to invade Ukraine after a troop build-up of some 150,000 troops on its ex-Soviet neighbour’s borders. Russia has denied any such plans.
Ukraine had requested the OSCE meeting to discuss the “rapidly deteriorating security situation on the ground”, according to a tweet from Poland’s OSCE representative Adam Halacinski.
“Its aim is to discuss everything that has happened in recent hours and what steps the OSCE should take in this situation in order above all to bring about a de-escalation of tension,” Jablonski said. “We are using all available tools that are possible to use in order to avoid an armed conflict.”
On the ground, here’s video footage showing Ukrainian officials, soldiers and international journalists running away from what appears to be shelling on Saturday as they visited eastern Ukraine’s conflict zone.
It comes after shelling in recent days of Ukrainian territory in the east of the country, some of which Ukrainian military officials say targeted civilians.
Hundreds of people demonstrated in Warsaw, Poland on Sunday against Russian aggression towards Ukraine.
It comes after on Saturday the Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis called for stronger military defence of the Baltic states and Poland, amid fears Russian aggression may not stop at Ukraine.
Newswire AFP reports from Warsaw:
Participants waved Ukrainian, Polish and EU flags as well as the standard used by the Belarusian opposition.
“We Are With Ukraine,” read one placard held up at the demonstration. Another said: “Hands Off Ukraine.” “Putin on trial!” the crowd chanted.
Organisers said in a statement that the protest was “to express our opposition to yet another possible Russian aggression against Ukraine”.
This is Jem Bartholomew in London taking charge of the Ukraine crisis blog from here. Do get in touch via email or Twitter with tips and thoughts.
Russian president Vladimir Putin told French president Emmanuel Macron Russian troops would leave Belarus after completion of its military exercises, Reuters reports, citing a French official. Western countries will no doubt attach little value to that assurance, given that Russian troops were expected to leave today, until it was announced otherwise.
Reuters also says that the two leaders disagreed in their phone call today over who was responsible for tensions in eastern Ukraine, citing a French presidential adviser. Macron put blame on the Russian separatists and Putin on Ukraine, the French official said.
Updated
Putin and Macron agree to try to secure ceasefire in eastern Ukraine and urgent summit
Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron have agreed to try to secure a ceasefire in the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, and to put together an urgent summit at the highest level on the future of Ukraine, the Élysée Palace said in a statement.
The two leaders spoke on the phone for 105 minutes, and the outcome, broadly confirmed by the Kremlin, suggests Russia might be willing to step back from the brink of a full invasion of Ukraine to allow renewed diplomatic discussions.
The French foreign minister, Jean Yves Le Drian, will meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, in the coming days to work on a possible summit at the highest level with Russia, Ukraine and allies.
The Kremlin suggested the meeting would be held in the Normandy format, meaning the participants will be Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany.
It is too early to say if Macron has pulled off a last-minute diplomatic coup, or if he has the full support for his initiative from Washington and London. So far, most of his moves have been coordinated with the White House.
It was also decided that a meeting of the trilateral contact group would be held “in the next few hours” in order to “obtain a commitment from all the stakeholders” to ceasefire on the line of contact.
The purpose of the leaders’ summit if the conditions are met, would be to define a new order of peace and security in Europe,” the French presidency said.
The Kremlin said Putin had expressed serious concern over the sharp deterioration of the situation on the line of contact in the Donbas.
The statement added:
Taking into account the acuteness of the current state of affairs, the presidents considered it expedient to intensify the search for solutions through diplomatic means through the foreign ministries and political advisers to the leaders of the countries participating in the Normandy format. These contacts are designed to help restore the ceasefire and ensure progress in resolving the conflict around Donbas.
The Kremlin insisted Putin was not withdrawing any of his wider demands saying Putin “reiterated the need for the United States and Nato to take Russian demands for security guarantees seriously and respond to them concretely and to the point”.
The statement added that the escalation in the Donbas was blamed by Putin on the provocations of the Ukrainian security forces, and he complained of the supplying by the Nato countries of Ukraine of modern weapons and ammunition, “which is pushing Kiev towards a military solution to the so-called Donbas problem”.
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The exiled Belarus opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya said today that the presence of Russian troops for extended military drills endangered her country’s sovereignty. From AFP:
“The presence of Russian troops on our territory violates our constitution, international law, endangers the security of each Belarusian and the entire region,” her office said in a statement.
Her comments came after Belarus said its massive military drills with Russia that had been due to conclude Sunday would continue, citing military activity around its borders and in Ukraine.
The exercises have heightened fears in the west that Russia is preparing an attack on its ex-Soviet neighbour after massing tens of thousands of troops around Ukraine’s borders.
“We demand the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from our territory,” Tikhanovskaya said in the statement, adding that her team would seek to have the deployment raised within the UN security council.
Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko has become an increasingly close ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
This bond grew stronger after Moscow threw its political weight behind Minsk during large anti-government protests in 2020.
Tikhanovskaya said in her statement that Lukashenko was paying the price for that support with Belarusian “sovereignty” and “now we are seeing the consequences”.
The opposition believe Tikhanovskaya was the true winner of elections in 2020 that sparked the protests and a crackdown that forced the political newcomer into exile in neighbouring EU-member state Lithuania.
Updated
Here’s some more from the Putin-Macron call:
Some lofty language from the Elysee. “Intense diplomatic work will be undertaken "in order to achieve, if the conditions are met, a meeting at the highest level to define a new order of peace and security in Europe," adds the French Presidency” https://t.co/HkNbZuoOuT
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 20, 2022
Updated
The secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has told CBS News that the national security council will meet later today to review the latest intelligence on Ukraine and “check plans”.
Blinken is doing the rounds of the TV political shows this morning to press home the Biden administration’s message that the US remains convinced that Russia is poised to invade Ukraine.
As President Biden said, everything we are seeing tells us that the decision we believe President Putin has made to invade is moving forward.
Pressed to give details of why the US continues to believe an invasion is imminent despite repeated Russian denials, Blinken pointed to what he called “provocations” by separatist forces and “false flag operations” that could be used by Putin to justify overrunning its neighbour.
Now we have the news just this morning that the ‘exercises’ Russia was engaged with in Belarus, with 30,000 forces, which were supposed to end this weekend will now continue because of tensions in eastern Ukraine – tensions created by Russia.
Blinken has just returned from Munich where he accompanied Kamala Harris to a security conference on the Ukraine crisis. He is scheduled to meet the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, in Europe next week, but has stipulated that the encounter will be cancelled in the case of an invasion.
On Saturday, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, was sharply critical of allied leaders for waiting to impose sanctions until after any bombardment had begun. He accused world leaders of “appeasement”.
Asked by CBS News to respond to the criticism, Blinken said:
We have put together in great detail the massive consequences that will befall Russia if it engages in this aggression. The purpose of that is to deter the aggression, and once you trigger the sanctions you lose the deterrence.
The French president’s office has released its own version of the call with Putin, Reuters reports:
French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed in a call today on the need to find a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis, Macron’s office said on Sunday.
The two countries’ foreign ministers will meet in the coming days to that effect and will work on a possible summit at the highest level with Russia, Ukraine and allies to establish a new security order in Europe, the Elysee palace said.
Updated
Putin accuses Ukraine of 'provocations'
Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukrainian ‘provocations’ for the escalation of the current situation in the Donbas in a call with French President Emmanuel Macron today
“The Russian president noted that the reason for the escalation is the provocations by the Ukrainian security force,” according to a Kremlin readout of the call, which also said however that the two leaders “believe it is important to intensify efforts to find solutions through diplomatic means”.
The Kremlin also said Putin told Macron that Nato countries continue “to pump Ukraine with modern weapons“ which “pushes Kyiv to solve the so-called military problem.”
“In the end, civilians in the Donbas are suffering, and have to then have to be evacuated to Russia to protect them the from growing violence,” the Kremlin readout said, referring to the recent mass-scale evacuation of citizens from the Donbas to Russia that the west has called a manufactured war scare aimed at creating a pretext for an invasion into Ukraine.
The Kremlin statement further stated that Putin repeated Moscow’s demands that US and Nato must take Russia’s security demands “seriously.”
The Associated Press has filed this write-up of comments by the US vice-president in Germany today:
The US vice-president, Kamala Harris, wrapped up a weekend of outreach to European allies with a push to bolster the west’s resolve in confronting Moscow with crippling sanctions as increasingly dire signs suggest Russia’s Vladimir Putin plans to order an invasion of Ukraine.
In a burst of diplomacy at the annual Munich security conference, Harris tried to make the case to American allies that rapidly escalating tensions on the Ukraine-Russian border meant European security was under “direct threat” and there should be unified support for economic penalties if the Kremlin invades its neighbour.
“We’re talking about the potential for war in Europe. I mean, let’s really take a moment to understand the significance of what we’re talking about,” Harris told reporters before her return to Washington. Europe, she said, might be at its most perilous moment since the end of the second world war.
“It’s been over 70 years, and through those 70 years … there has been peace and security,” she said. “We are talking about the real possibility of war in Europe.”
During a series of choreographed meetings and a major address at the security conference, Harris told global leaders they were at a “defining” and “decisive” moment for the world.
Harris met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, the leaders of the three Baltic nations, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
Biden sent Harris to Germany with straightforward marching orders to amplify his concern that a Russian invasion was highly likely and make clear to European allies that they must be ready to impose the toughest sanctions Moscow has ever seen.
Harris told reporters that an invasion – and subsequent sanctions on Russia – would likely have costs for Americans, as well.
“When America stands for principles, and all of the things that we hold dear, it requires sometimes for us to put ourselves out there in a way that maybe we will incur some cost,” Harris said. “In this situation, that may relate to energy costs.”
Updated
The Ukrainian military has today closed a key checkpoint leading to the separatist region of Donbas after it came under repeated shelling, Reuters reports.
KYIV, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Ukraine on Sunday suspended operations at one of the seven checkpoints to territory in the eastern Donbass region controlled by Russia-backed separatists, due to heavy shelling, the Ukrainian military said.
— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) February 20, 2022
Ukraine president calls for immediate ceasefire
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for an immediate ceasefire in the eastern part of the country, where clashes between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces intensified in recent days, Reuters reports:
Zelenskiy also said Ukraine supports peace talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, where Ukraine participates along with Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE).
“We stand for intensifying the peace process. We support the immediate convening of the TCG and the immediate introduction of a regime of silence,” Zelenskiy said on Twitter.
Continuing yesterday's conversation, informed @EmmanuelMacron about the current security situation and new provocative shelling. We stand for intensifying the peace process. We support the immediate convening of the TCG and the immediate introduction of a regime of silence.
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 20, 2022
Summary
Here is a summary of the latest developments:
- Joint military exercises by Russia and Belarus close to the Belarusian border with Ukraine have been extended “due to military activity near the borders and escalation in the Donbas”. The exercises were supposed to end today and the Russians to withdraw. The extension will be seen as an ominous sign in Ukraine.
- British prime minister Boris Johnson has said evidence suggests Russia is planning “the biggest war in Europe since 1945”. In an interview with the BBC from Munich’s security conference, Johnson said the US president, Joe Biden, had told Western leaders that intelligence suggested Russian forces intend to launch an invasion that will encircle Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
- The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for sanctions on Russia now and not after a possible invasion of Ukraine. His comments were later echoed by Ukraine’s foreign minister.
-
Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas have claimed that Ukrainian forces have killed two civilians. It marks the first time in the recent flare-up that the pro-Russian separatists have accused Ukraine of killing civilians on its territory and comes as as Kyiv and the West warn Moscow was creating a pretext for an invasion.
-
Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has warned that the situation in the Donbas is such that “warned that any “any spark, any unplanned incident or any minor planned provocation can lead to irreparable consequences”. He also said today that there was no “point for Russia attacking anyone” urging western partners to “come to reason”.
- The US vice president, Kamala Harris, has said: “We believe that Putin has made his decision. Period.” Harris’s comments, echoing those of President Biden, came after she was asked in Munich whether the US has intelligence that Putin has decided to invade.
Poland, which currently holds the chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), said today it would convene an extraordinary session of the group’s permanent council on Ukraine (via Reuters).
Ukraine requested the session to take place tomorrow, according to a letter posted on Twitter by Adam Halacinskie, Poland’s permanent representative to the OSCE.
Upon request of @UKRinOSCE the 🇵🇱 @PLinOSCE will convene an extraordinary meeting of the Permanent Council of the @OSCE. I invited Special Rep @mikko_kinnunen and Chief of @OSCE_SMM to participate. Addressing security concerns is #OSCE’s primary task.#OSCE2022POL pic.twitter.com/SYdPLHb8Zd
— Adam Hałaciński (@AdamHalacinski) February 20, 2022
Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said today it was time for the west to implement at least part of the sanctions it has prepared against Russia. From Reuters:
Russia has to be stopped right now. We see how events are unfolding,” Kuleba said.
Kuleba’s statement came soon after Russia and Belarus announced an extension of military drills near Ukrainian borders, with western leaders warning of an imminent Russian invasion while clashes intensify in eastern Ukraine.
“It’s time to act. I’m officially saying that there are all the grounds to implement at least a part of sanctions prepared against Russia, now,” Kuleba said at a televised briefing from a security conference in Munich
Updated
Evacuees from pro-Russian proxy states in eastern Ukraine are being moved further into Russia, the Guardian’s Moscow correspondent reports.
New evacuees from Donetsk now being taken to trains where they’re being sent to points further into Russia. Operation is sizable, though nothing like 100s of thousands so far. I’ve now been kicked out of the train station as well, which is a first for me pic.twitter.com/fKnZHtUI1I
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) February 20, 2022
The Times and Sunday Times correspondent reports mixed feelings in Donetsk about the current situation.
People from Donetsk being put onto buses by Russia emergencies officers. Varying views on the situation back home. One said it was "frightening," another that it was fairly quiet but "worst still to come." A teen said only left to keep her friends company... pic.twitter.com/YVtRVzDDMk
— Marc Bennetts (@marcbennetts1) February 20, 2022
A small anti-war protest in Moscow was swiftly shut down today.
"Russia don't touch Ukraine!" 6 people unfurled banners against invasion in downtown Moscow. Waiting police immediately arrested them pic.twitter.com/DsUYqYDnXP
— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) February 20, 2022
Updated
Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said today that there was no “point for Russia attacking anyone” urging western partners to “come to reason”.
“We urge you to ask yourself the question: what is the point of Russia attacking anyone?,” Peskov said in a television interview aired on the state-run Russia-1 broadcaster.
The longtime spokesman of Putin also criticised the west for “not being very good in history”, claiming Russia has never invaded another country.
“We remind you that Russia has never attacked anyone throughout its history. And Russia, which has survived so many wars, is the last country in Europe that wants to speak at all, even pronounce the word ‘war’”.
Asked about the situation in the Donbas, Peskov warned that any “any spark, any unplanned incident or any minor planned provocation can lead to irreparable consequences”.
Updated
The attempts at diplomacy continue ...
The phone call between Putin and Macron is under way. https://t.co/4LU5Ilyvz9
— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) February 20, 2022
Elliot Higgins, founder of investigative journalism website, Bellingcat, has posted a Twitter thread entitled: “Anatomy of a Russian separatist false flag.”
Anatomy of a Russian Seperatist False Flag - On February 18th the Telegram channel of the press service of the People's Militia of the Donetsk People's Republic published the following video, claiming to show a sabotage operation targeting chlorine tankshttps://t.co/Syk8NG2zKx pic.twitter.com/R4mfggxbPg
— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) February 20, 2022
The Dutch foreign ministry said today that the country’s embassy in Ukraine is moving away from the capital Kyiv to the western city of Lviv as fears mount that Russia is preparing to invade its western neighbour.
“Due to security reasons, we have decided today to move the activities of the embassy to Lviv,” the Dutch ministry of foreign affairs said in a statement published on its website.
Britain and the US earlier announced they were relocating their Ukraine embassy operations from Kyiv to Lviv.
Dutch people who are still in the country have also been urged to leave “as soon as possible.”
The Dutch flagship carrier KLM was the first airline to suspend flights to Ukraine.
Updated
Details have emerged of the Ukrainian army captain killed on Saturday in heavy shelling on the Donbas frontline.
Speaking at the Munich security conference on Saturday, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy paid tribute to 34-year-old Anton Sidorov, whom he described as a patriot and veteran intelligence officer.
“He died as a result of artillery fire, which is prohibited by the Minsk agreements,” Zelenskiy said.
Video shows Sidorov – a talented musician – singing at an army gala event. He composed his songs in Russian, including the song Sleep, my brothers, which was performed at the show.
“Your song has simply torn the hearts of many Ukrainians during all these years of war,” Anatoliy Stirlitz, a blogger and army officer, posted on Telegram.
Sidorov was hit in the head by shrapnel at 7am on Saturday near the village of Myronivske, in the Donetsk region. His injuries were described as “incompatible with life”.
He was one of two Ukrainian soldiers killed yesterday, with four injured. A father of three, he came from the city of Novograd-Volynsky.
Updated
The US vice president has been speaking in Germany about the threat of war.
BREAKING: “We believe that Putin has made his decision. Period,” @VP Kamala Harris tells us at press conference in Germany, referring to Ukraine invasion. She says Europe is on brink of possible “war.” pic.twitter.com/zatchjnUZc
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 20, 2022
🚨Asked what US should be prepared to brace for if “war” happens, @VP Kamala Harris tells me Americans may have to “put ourselves out there” and may see energy costs rise. “But we are taking very specific and appropriate I believe steps to mitigate what that cost, if it happens.” pic.twitter.com/Wcqi31OYxk
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 20, 2022
Instead of Russia withdrawing troops from Belarus, as originally scheduled, they will apparently be working on new joint military drills with their Belarusian counterparts.
The spokesman for the Belarusian military says Moscow and Minsk will develop defense plans that weren’t part of the previous drills. He says the new exercises are meant to “deescalate the armed preparations of foes.” https://t.co/cPycsrcKWz
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) February 20, 2022
Nato has estimated that there are 30,000 Russian troops in Belarus.
A week today, the Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, a firm ally in Putin’s Ukraine policy, is due to hold a constitutional referendum, widely dismissed as illegitimate by western countries, that analysts say is meant to pave the way for him to step back from the presidency at some point but retain overall control.
The Washington Post’s Mary Illuyshina says that the announcement of continued joint military exercises by Russia and Belarus, close to the Belarusian border with Ukraine, comes just days after the Belarusian foreign minister said otherwise.
Belarusian FM Makey said *check notes* 4 days ago that not a single Russian soldier or piece of hardware will remain. Everyone was obviously skeptical. Today DefMin Khrenin says that Europe wants war hence drills continue. What’s the word here, Ч.Т.Д.?
— Mary Ilyushina (@maryilyushina) February 20, 2022
Russia-Belarus drills to continue beyond schedule
Joint military exercises by Russia and Belarus close to the Belarusian border with Ukraine were due to end today but the Belarusian defense ministry has announced that they will continue. They have been seen as a significant element in the Kremlin’s menacing posture towards its neighbour.
Allied Resolve Rus-Bel drills officially end today. But seems like no one is leaving yet: “Belarus and Russia, due to military activity near the borders and escalation in the Donbas, decided to continue a joint check of the forces, the Belarusian Defense Ministry said”
— Mary Ilyushina (@maryilyushina) February 20, 2022
Russian troops stay in Belarus indefinitely. Belarus Defence Minister Khrenin just made an official statement: "Due to increased military activity near the borders and escalation in Donbas, Belarus and Russia decided to continue joint inspections of response forces". pic.twitter.com/2fgwLOjOFv
— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) February 20, 2022
Updated
Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas have claimed that Ukrainian forces have killed two civilians, as Kyiv and the west say Moscow was creating a pretext for an invasion.
It marks the first time in the recent flare-up that the pro-Russian separatists have accused Ukraine of killing civilians on its territory.
“As a result of aggression by the Kyiv militants, two civilians were killed and five houses were destroyed,” the Luhansk People’s Republic militia said in a statement posted on its Telegram channel.
The statement added that the two civilians were killed in the rebel-held town of Pionerskaya, close to the Russian border.
Shortly after the statement was published, Russia announced it was opening a criminal investigation into the alleged death of the two Donbas civilians.
Kyiv and its western partners have repeatedly said in recent weeks that they believe Moscow could use a staged incident in the two Russian-controlled separatist regions as justification for an invasion.
Russia and the rebels have on their part accused Kyiv of planning an assault to retake the Donbas regions, claims flatly denied by Ukraine and rejected by the West.
On Saturday, Russia’s State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin reiterated that Moscow was ready to “defend” Russians and compatriots living in the two proxy states if their lives are in danger. Russia has issued over 700,000 passports to residents of eastern Ukraine since separatists took hold of the territory there in 2014.
The US president, Joe Biden, said earlier Russia was involved in “disinformation” in Ukraine and said that claims in the Russian media that Ukraine was planning a major attack “defies basic logic” of what a country would do with over 150,000 troops arrayed at its borders.
Updated
The Guardian’s Andrew Roth has been visiting accommodation housing people evacuated from Moscow-backed statelets in eastern Ukraine on Friday evening, after an order by the leaders of the pro-Russian proxy states.
Spartan but livable conditions at Krasny Desant sanatorium, which housed refugees in 2014 and locals say during Georgian war in 2008. Most I spoke to here left eastern Ukraine two days ago when evacuation began. Many said they saw uptick in fighting. Police have kicked me out 😭 pic.twitter.com/LbkPeALQRI
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) February 20, 2022
They are not all being welcomed with open arms, according to one report.
Residents of the Rostov region are discussing in the social media how refugees from the DPR and LPR behave. Many are dissatisfied with the fact that…they refuse second-hand things, demand good housing and decent food. https://t.co/qlV0IWRUZv
— Ruslan Trad (@ruslantrad) February 20, 2022
The assessments of US and British spies on Ukraine cannot be trusted given the faulty intelligence in the run-up to the US-led invasion of Iraq, Russia’s first deputy permanent representative to the United Nations said today. Dmitry Polyanskiy told Sky (via Reuters):
We don’t trust the US and British intelligence, they let us down, the whole world, on many occasions [it is] enough to remember weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
Polyanskiy said no one should try to tell Russia where it held military exercises on Russian territory.
Updated
James Cleverly, Britain’s minister for Europe, has said a Russian invasion of Ukraine now seems “far more likely than unlikely”. He told Sky News (via Reuters):
Unfortunately, at the moment, an attack, an invasion seems far more likely than unlikely but we will continue to work to try and avert that.
Everything that we see indicates that invasion is very, very, highly likely and very, very imminent.
As western leaders continue to accuse Moscow of spreading misinformation as pretext for a possible invasion, the deputy of the Russian Duma has accused Ukraine of planning an imminent attack against Donbas, the region of eastern Ukraine where the Kremlin has armed and funded an insurgency since 2014, a Middle East Eye reporter says.
Russian Duma deputy Viktor Vodolatsky claims a Ukrainian attack against Donbas might begin in the next 48 hours
— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 20, 2022
He also mentions February 21 as the date of the beginning of the hostilities.
Communist party leader also gave the same date
Updated
Hello, this is Haroon Siddique taking over the blog.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, will speak to Vladimir Putin over the phone today as attempts continue to avert a Russian invasion of Ukraine. A Russian report also suggests Macron may fly to Moscow imminently.
French President Emmanuel Macron will call Russia's Vladimir Putin on Sunday to try to avert what Western powers predict will be an imminent invasion of Ukrainehttps://t.co/ks4Nx6yzMp
— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) February 20, 2022
RIA’s unofficial account suggests Macron might travel to Moscow after talking to Putin today. He spoke to Zelensky yesterday. https://t.co/bJyndrvbH1
— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) February 20, 2022
Russian media has confirmed the deaths of two Ukrainian soldiers in the government-held part of Donetsk on Saturday, claiming the servicemen were part of a “sabotage group” planning “terrorist attacks” against gas pipelines and electrical substations in the region.
The claim comes as western leaders continue to accuse Moscow and Russian-backed rebels of spreading misinformation as pretext for a possible invasion.
Russian state news agency RIA Novosti cited a statement from the ministry of state security of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic.
“On February 19, 2022, during the implementation of operational information, special forces of the Ministry of State Security of the Donetsk People’s Republic in the city of Donetsk blocked an enemy sabotage and terrorist group that planned to blow up electrical substations, gas pipelines and filter stations on the territory of the republic,” the statement reportedly read.
It was during an attempt to detain the servicemen when two special forces soldiers received gunshot wounds, the ministry alleged.
Flurry of new dubious reports that could be pretexts, from Russia state media and Kremlin-led Donetsk. This claims Donetsk stopped “enemy sabotage and terrorist group that planned to blow up electrical substations, gas pipelines,” and two officers shot in scuffle with saboteur. https://t.co/LPMbRTKPxr
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 20, 2022
Updated
Ukraine’s national guard says it is continuing to ensure security in eastern Ukraine.
“Everything is under control in Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” the force said in a tweet early on Sunday morning while cautioning residents to only follow official information sources.
Національна гвардія України продовжує забезпечувати безпеку на сході України: на Донеччині та Луганщині все під контролем.
— МВС України (@MVS_UA) February 20, 2022
А щоб не втрапити у пастку фейків, стежте за офіційними джерелами інформації.
Ми вас захистимо! pic.twitter.com/N0wnoPYiFG
Updated
Ukraine has suspended operations at one of the seven checkpoints to territory in the eastern Donbas region controlled by Russia-backed separatists, due to heavy shelling, Reuters reports.
Separatists on Saturday fired three times on the Schastya checkpoint using mortars and heavy anti-tank grenade launchers, as ceasefire violations by separatists along the frontline increased to 136 from 66 on Friday, the military said on its Facebook page.
Considering “the escalation of the situation... and the inability to guarantee the safety of the civilian population” using the checkpoint, the command was suspending its use from 8am on Sunday “for the period of the threat,” the military said.
Incidents of shelling across the line dividing Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatists increased sharply last week, in what the Ukrainian government called a provocation. However, Kyiv’s western allies say Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine and are concerned that the escalation might be used as a pretext.
Updated
Truss says Putin 'will not stop at Ukraine'
The UK’s foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said she believes Putin “will not stop at Ukraine”, arguing that he is looking to piece the Soviet Union back together.
Truss earlier told a security conference in Munich to get ready for war.
This is the most dangerous moment for European security since the 1940s. We need to prepare for the worst-case scenario. Russia has shown they aren’t serious about diplomacy.”
Truss, speaking to the Mail On Sunday, said the west needed to stop Moscow in its tracks or Putin would look to “turn the clock back to the mid 1990s or even before then” by possibly annexing the Baltic states – such as Estonia and Latvia – and the western Balkans, which includes Serbia and Albania.
British intelligence chiefs say they agree with reports from the White House, warning that Russian president Putin has already issued a “go” order with plans to seize control of Ukraine having already begun, a UK newspaper reports.
According to the Sunday Times, four senior figures in government confirmed they expected a multi-pronged Russian assault to begin any day, possibly culminating in a “lightning war” against the capital, Kyiv.
One told the publication:
“Our intelligence is consistent with the Americans’. Putin has a plan and it is under way.”
The sources said they expect false flag operations and skirmishes with Ukrainian troops in the eastern Donbas region will be followed by an attack by separatist forces before Russian troops “take a bite out of Ukraine” or launch a “full-scale invasion”.
A security source said: “I would expect a massive opening salvo to try to remove the government in Kyiv. The Russians have positioned cruise missiles to take out the capital.”
Another senior adviser said: “There is a recognition that we might be dealing with a lightning war but also lots of different scenarios playing out at once or in sequence.” These include “the big assault on Kyiv”.
Updated
Two soldiers killed, Ukraine's defence ministry says
The Ukrainian defence ministry says it recorded 122 violations by Russian forces on Saturday, including 108 involving weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements. It says two soldiers were killed.
According to a statement issued late on Saturday, the ministry said artillery was fired from settlements, landing near residential buildings.
“By doing so, the enemy is trying to force units of the armed forces of Ukraine to open fire in response, in order to further accuse Ukrainian defenders of shelling civilians,” the statement reads.
According to the ministry, two Ukrainian servicemen died from injuries sustained from the shelling, while another four servicemen were injured and are currently receiving treatment.
The force added it would not open fire on civilian infrastructure and would continue to adhere to the norms of international humanitarian law.
The Donetsk and Luhansk regions have been at the centre of hostilities in recent days, though the area has been fraught with conflict since 2014 with skirmishes persisting between Russian-backed rebels who seek autonomy and Ukrainians.
The two territories are run by separatist governments widely seen as Russian proxy states inside Ukraine.
Updated
In case you missed this statement from the EU council released late last night, the body commended Ukraine’s “posture of restraint” in the face of “continued provocations and efforts at destabilisation”.
Josep Borrell, high representative on behalf of the EU, said:
The EU urges Russia to de-escalate by a substantial withdrawal of military forces from the proximity of Ukraine’s borders.
Borrell said the escalation is now “compounded by the increase in ceasefire violations” in eastern Ukraine in recent days and condemned the use of heavy weaponry and shelling of civilian areas, which “constitute a clear violation of the Minsk agreements and international humanitarian law”.
We commend Ukraine’s posture of restraint in the face of continued provocations and efforts at destabilisation.
The EU is extremely concerned that staged events, as noted recently, could be used as a pretext for possible military escalation.
Zelenskiy calls for sanctions on Russia now, not later
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made an emphatic statement to the west from Munich’s security conference, saying that sanctions on Russia should be made public before and not after a possible invasion of Ukraine occurs.
The security architecture of our world is brittle, it is obsolete ... Action is needed. This is not about war in Ukraine, this is about war in Europe.”
In a recent interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, the president said:
Even the question of just making it public, preventably, just a list of sanctions for them, for us and to know what will happen if they start the war, even that question does not have the support.
We don’t need your sanctions after the bombardment will happen and after our country will be fired at or after we will have no borders, or after we will have no economy or part of our countries will be occupied... why would we need those sanctions then?”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks with CNN's Christiane Amanpour about Russian troops amassed near the Ukrainian border https://t.co/wzdaS5g8Vh pic.twitter.com/NHZpEV2djh
— CNN (@CNN) February 19, 2022
Updated
Russia plans 'biggest war in Europe since 1945', Johnson says
British prime minister Boris Johnson has said evidence suggests Russia is planning “the biggest war in Europe since 1945” in an interview with the BBC from Munich’s security conference.
The prime minister said US President Joe Biden had told Western leaders that intelligence suggested Russian forces intend to launch an invasion that will encircle Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
According to Johnson, Russian troops were not just planning on entering Ukraine from the east, via Donbas, but down from Belarus and the area surrounding Kyiv.
All the signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun.
People need to understand the sheer cost in human life that could entail.
I’m afraid to say that the plan we are seeing is for something that could be really the biggest war in Europe since 1945 just in terms of sheer scale.”
People need to not only consider the potential loss of life of Ukrainians, but also of “young Russians”, Johnson added.
Updated
Summary
Welcome to our live coverage of the Ukraine crisis. I’m Samantha Lock and I’ll be bringing you all the latest developments.
Tensions continued to mount overnight after world leaders met at the Munich security conference, calling upon Russia to consider diplomacy and withdraw troops from Ukraine’s borders.
Here are the key events you may have missed overnight.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for sanctions on Russia to be made public before and not after a possible invasion of Ukraine occurs.
- Zelenskiy continued to assert Ukraine will not respond to any provocations from Russia.
- The European council called upon Russia to de-escalate and withdraw military forces, while commending Ukraine’s “posture of restraint in the face of continued provocations and efforts at destabilisation”.
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Josep Borrell, high representative on behalf of the EU, said there are “no grounds for allegations” coming from the Russian-backed Donetsk and Luhansk regions of a possible Ukrainian attack.
- Explosions were heard overnight in the centre of the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, according to multiple reports.
- US state department spokesperson Ned Price says more evidence of Russian disinformation is being used for false-flag operations aimed at discrediting the Ukrainian government.
- US President Joe Biden’s confidence about Russian military action came from US intel about an order given to Russian subordinates to proceed with a full-scale attack, according to senior administration officials as per the Washington Post.
- British foreign minister Liz Truss told Munich security conference on Saturday that Ukraine could face the “worst-case scenario” of a Russian invasion as soon as next week, and Europe faced one of its most perilous security situations since the early 20th century.
- Speaking in Munich, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Vladimir Putin to meet with him to find a resolution to the conflict. “I don’t know what the president of the Russian Federation wants, so I am proposing a meeting,” he said.
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Nato relocated staff from Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, to Lviv and Brussels, according to multiple reports.
- Joe Biden will convene the national security council on Sunday to discuss the evolving situation in Ukraine, the White House announced.
- A joint statement from the foreign ministers of the G7 nations urged diplomacy but warned it would “judge Russia by its deeds”.
