Thanks for following along today. We are going to hand over to the US politics live blog, where Lauren Gambino will be covering a press conference shortly with the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and the EU high representative Josep Borrell, and then, later, Joe Biden’s press conference with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz. Follow it all here:
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Nato is considering a longer-term military posture in eastern Europe to strengthen its defences, the alliance’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said, Reuters reports.
Nato defence ministers are expected to discuss reinforcements at their next meeting on 16-17 February.
Stoltenberg said:
We are considering more longer-term adjustments to our posture, our presence in the eastern part of the alliance. No final decision has been made on that but there is a process now going on within Nato.
If Russia really wants less Nato close to the borders, they get the opposite.
He was speaking at a press conference with the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, making a reference to the last reinforcement of Nato defences. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Nato countries deployed battlegroups in Poland and the Baltic states.
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Macron plays down expectations as he arrives in Moscow for talks with Putin
Emmanuel Macron said he did not “believe in spontaneous miracles” as he arrived in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin.
- Moscow has also played down expectations ahead of the talks. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, described Macron’s visit as “very important” but said the situation was “too complex to expect a decisive breakthrough after just one meeting”. He said the US and its allies continued to ignore Russia’s security demands, describing the atmosphere as tense.
- Macron’s visit has drawn some criticism from EU analysts, but the French president has taken care to brief fellow European leaders. He also spoke to the US president, Joe Biden, on Sunday to “discuss ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts”, according to the White House.
- Germany’s new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is due to meet Biden in the White House later on Monday, a visit described as a face-saving mission, where he is under pressure to show that Berlin is a reliable partner.
- Meanwhile, Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, is due to hold talks in Kyiv with her opposite number, Dmytro Kuleba, where she is likely to face calls to lift an export ban on weapons. Earlier on Monday Kuleba met a trio of EU foreign ministers from central Europe in the latest show of support for Ukraine.
- Debate continues to run on if and when Russia will launch an attack on Ukraine. While the Kremlin denies it has such plans, Latvia’s deputy prime minister and defence minister, Artis Pabriks, said one factor influencing the timing could be that many Russian troops camped at the border are sick with Covid and suffering from poor conditions, which could force a decision by the Kremlin.
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Emmanuel Macron’s meeting with Vladimir Putin is now under way, reports my colleague Kim Willsher in Paris.
The meeting started at 15.30 GMT. The Élysée has described the meeting as a “strict face-to-face”, as there are only four people in the room: the two presidents and two interpreters.
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The Latvian defence minister, Artis Pabriks, has said Russian troops massed near the Ukrainian border were enduring poor conditions and falling sick, potentially forcing Vladimir Putin’s hand on whether to attack or withdraw.
Pabriks, who is also deputy prime minister, told a virtual meeting of the German Marshall Fund of the United States:
The news is coming out that conditions for his soldiers at the border are not so pleasant, compared to our barracks here or your barracks in the United States.
There is also information that many people are suffering from Covid, so they are sick. So he needs to act.
Pabriks said Putin’s options included launching an invasion or choosing another kind of action, such as annexing the rebel-run Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which, “with his media in the pocket, he could sell this as [being] a hero.”
The third option would be a climbdown, but Pabriks said it was not clear how Putin would do this, having bet so heavily on the threat of war to gain concessions. “Putin is putting himself and Russia in a corner,” Pabriks said.
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The UK government will send 350 extra troops to Poland as a sign of support, the Guardian’s defence and security editor Dan Sabbagh reports.
Britain sending extra 350 troops to Poland in bilateral deal with Warsaw, Ben Wallace announces w his Polish counterpart. "Send a strong signal to President Putin we stand side by side".
— Dan Sabbagh (@dansabbagh) February 7, 2022
The troops will not be part of the Nato battlegroups set up in central and eastern Europe, to reinforce security after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. The UK currently leads the Nato battlegroup in Estonia with 828* troops and contributes to the Polish battlegroup, with 140* troops.
*These numbers were correct in February 2021.
So extra troops will not be part of a Nato mission. Takes total UK troops in Poland to 600. Offer firmed up in a meeting this afternoon in London b/w Wallace and Polish def min Mariusz Blaszczak
— Dan Sabbagh (@dansabbagh) February 7, 2022
If Russia is planning a military invasion of Ukraine, you would not learn much from the Russian press, where the top stories are Sino-Russian relations and the Winter Olympics, reports the BBC’s Moscow correspondent, Steve Rosenberg.
If Russia is planning a military escalation in Ukraine, today’s Russian papers don’t reflect that. Some interesting comments today about European leaders. Praise for Macron, but “Goodbye Johnson.” #ReadingRussia @BBCNews @BBCWorld https://t.co/ndgdtTDDyD pic.twitter.com/hIdCLPLgvE
— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) February 7, 2022
The papers reflect how Moscow sees other European leaders, says Rosenberg in his indispensable guide to the Russian press.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta has a complimentary article about the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who it sees as a leader similar in stature to Angela Merkel.
Who, if not Macron? After the departure of German chancellor Angela Merkel there are no other politicians capable of talking on the same level with the president of Russia.
Successful talks with Putin could help Macron achieve “personal leadership in a truly autonomous Europe,” the paper writes, describing him as “someone capable of taking responsibility and initiative in difficult situations”.
Izvestiya is not impressed with Merkel’s successor, Olaf Scholz. One of its correspondents writes:
He has turned Germany into an outsider on the international stage at a time when the world is suffering one of the most serious crises between east and east.
At least Scholz fares better than the British prime minister. “[Boris] Johnson goodbye,” is the headline in the government paper Rossisykaya Gazeta.
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The French president, Emmanuel Macron, expressed guarded optimism as he arrived in Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin, Reuters has reported.
I’m reasonably optimistic but I don’t believe in spontaneous miracles.
Macron is due to meet the Russian president at about 2pm GMT for talks, followed by a working dinner and a joint news conference.
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German foreign minister to pledge solidarity in Kyiv trip
It’s also another busy day for diplomacy in Ukraine. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, is having a meeting with his counterparts from Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. In Kyiv, he will meet Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, one day before the arrival of France’s Emmanuel Macron, who is due to hold talks with Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelenskiy
Another week of intensive diplomacy. Four FMs in Ukraine today: @a_schallenberg @IvanKorcok @JanLipavsky, @ABaerbock. More to arrive in the coming days. @EmmanuelMacron will meet @ZelenskyyUa in Kyiv tomorrow. We seek diplomatic solutions, but won’t cross Ukraine’s red lines 1/2
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) February 7, 2022
In case France, or any other country, needed a reminder, Kuleba has listed Ukraine’s red lines:
One of the EU foreign ministers, Slovakia’s Ivan Korčok, has posted this image of their visit to Stanitsya Luhanska, close to the frontline of Ukraine’s war with Russian-backed separatists.
Visiting #Stanitsya Luhanska – symbol of conflict in eastern Ukraine 🇺🇦 that took more than 13 000 lives since 2014. Urgent need 2 resolve conflict diplomatically, to mitigate hardship of local people, 🇸🇰 / @SlovakAid helps. pic.twitter.com/0AwmfEiFbR
— Ivan Korcok (@IvanKorcok) February 7, 2022
Before her trip to Kyiv – her second in three weeks – Baerbock spelled out Germany’s support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
During my visit to Kyiv, I will once again make it unmistakably clear where we stand: as Ukraine’s partner in the EU, Nato and G7, with no ifs and buts on the country’s territorial integrity and on the side of the people of Ukraine … Together we will respond to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine with tough, very concrete measures.
It could be a tense meeting. Germany has been criticised by Kuleba and other senior politicians for refusing to lift a block on the export of German-origin guns from Estonia to Ukraine, as well as perceived reluctance to include Nord Stream 2 in the list of sanctions against Russia.
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Nord Stream 2 should be shelved, says Ukraine's energy company
The head of Ukraine’s state gas company has called for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to be shelved regardless of whether Russia invades Ukraine in the coming weeks.
In an interview with the Guardian in Kyiv, Yuriy Vitrenko, the CEO of Naftogaz, said he “unfortunately” did not see much change of attitude from Germany on the Baltic Sea pipeline that bypasses Ukraine.
In Germany, unfortunately we cannot see much change of attitude, but there is a change in the US. At least now it seems like the US administration realises that sanctions can stop this project
Vitrenko has spent much of his time over recent months pushing western politicians to ditch Nord Stream 2. Last July he accompanied the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to Berlin and joined a four-hour dinner with Angela Merkel, in which he said 90 minutes were devoted to Nord Stream. More recently he has been in Berlin meeting advisers to Scholz.
Vitrenko said he believed the pipeline should be shelved whether or not Russia makes a further incursion into Ukraine in the coming weeks. Speaking last Wednesday, he said he believed that once gas started flowing through the pipeline, Vladimir Putin would be more likely to launch an attack on Ukraine, calculating that it would be hard for the Germans to make a proactive move to cut off gas.
If he moves transit to Nord Stream 2 first, and then invades Ukraine, it will be much more difficult [for Germany to sanction the pipeline], because then German consumers will understand they have no heating as a direct result of the German government’s decision.
Ultimately, Vitrenko said, the pipeline held the key to the future of Europe:
If Germany doesn’t want a new world order as envisioned by Putin to be implemented first in Ukraine and then all over Europe, they should not allow Nord Stream 2 to go ahead.
Speaking during a visit to Kyiv last week, the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, had a similar message, calling the pipeline “a powerful threat to peace throughout Europe”.
Morawiecki, speaking alongside the Ukrainian prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, said:
Through launching this pipeline, Berlin is loading Putin’s pistol, which he can then use to blackmail the whole of Europe.
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Guardian Newsroom: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Join Mark Rice-Oxley, Andrew Roth, Luke Harding, Nataliya Gumenyuk and Orysia Lutsevych discussing rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and diplomatic efforts to avoid conflict on Tuesday 8th February, 8pm GMT | 9pm CET | 12pm PST | 3pm EST. Book tickets here
Emmanuel Macron’s visit to the Kremlin today to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for an open-ended discussion about Ukraine, is a calculated risk by the French president according to France’s press.
After the bilateral talks during the afternoon, both presidents will give a press conference. At the moment this is provisionally set for 20.45 Moscow time (17.45 UK time) but will depend on how long talks last.
In the Sunday newspaper, Le Journal du Dimanche an article headlined “What Macron is going to say to Putin”, suggested Macron cannot leave the Russian capital to travel to Kiev in Ukraine unless he has obtained a signal of Russia’s willingness to “de-escalate” from Putin.
A source told the paper:
We have to be very realistic. We will not get any unilateral gesture, but it is vital to avoid a worsening of the situation.
Europe 1 radio suggested the meeting was a risk for Macron. “It’s because he thinks he’s going to get that gesture or signal that he has gone”. Officially, such a high level diplomatic visit “without a time limit” could be dangerous for Macron as the presidential election nears.
The station added:
In reality, Emmanuel Macron wants to show that none of the other candidates except him would be able to have a head-to-head with the Russian president, that he’s the only one with the stature and authority to address the powerful…a sub text aimed at French voters.”
Le Figaro turned the question on its head and asked what Macron could do for Putin. It is thought in the Russian capital, with pragmatism, that faced with a “hysterical” America warning of an imminent attack on Ukraine and a Europe “without a face or a voice”, only Macron is left as a useful person with whom to dialogue. But it warned: “The two men have disappointed each other many times over the last five years.”
Olaf Scholz to meet Joe Biden in the White House
The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has set off on a whirlwind diplomatic tour today in an effort to avert a Russian invasion of Ukraine, starting in Washington where he is expected to be received by President Joe Biden this evening. Under pressure to show more commitment towards backing a military effort by Ukraine as it seeks to defend itself from the threat, but facing tough resistance domestically over deploying lethal weapons, Scholz’s first US visit since becoming German leader in December has been described at home and abroad as a “face-saving mission”, in which he will be expected to prove Germany is a reliable partner.
Before his departure he struck a more defiant tone over the crisis than in recent weeks, informing the broadcaster ARD that he intended to send more troops to Lithuania in an effort to strengthen Nato’s eastern flank.
Scholz is still at pains to prove that the crisis can be solved diplomatically, and this is what the German public also believes, drawing on the experiences of the cold war when there were frequent threats of violence and there was a strong sense of the danger being close at hand.
But, crucially, the Biden-Scholz partnership remains untried and untested: Scholz is first and foremost viewed in the US capital as the “successor to Merkel”. He must yet prove he is his own politician and willing to provide European leadership. The success or failure of the leaders’ relationship could yet prove vital to averting a crisis. Not least as the French president Emmanuel Macron’s political future is unclear and the British prime minister Boris Johnson’s attention is being diverted by domestic affairs.
Scholz acknowledged in the TV interview that “hard political work” would be required in the coming days and weeks, and that at stake was nothing less than “preventing war in Europe”.
But there has been particular irritation in Washington over his refusal to explicitly state that the gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 will be halted if Russia carries out its threat to invade. Scholz has so far refused to be pushed any further than saying “everything is on the table”.
He has left it to others, such as the German ambassador to Washington, Emily Haber, to in effect finish his sentence as the Americans would like to hear it. “The chancellor has openly said that in case of a Russian invasion into Ukraine, everything is on the table, all options, including Nord Stream 2,” she said in a recent interview. She also reportedly sent a diplomatic note to Berlin in which she warned that Germany was not being taken seriously as a reliable partner.
Scholz has so far established something of a reputation as the chancellor who says little, who prefers keeping his statements vague and reacting to others’ comments rather than stating his own aims clearly. But this has contributed to a drop in his domestic popularity from 60% at the start of the year, to 43% just a month later, and he is under pressure to change his tactics.
The Washington encounter, which will be followed by an interview with the broadcaster CNN, will probably force him to come clean on a number of uncomfortable questions, particularly surrounding energy security, namely: why it is that Germany remains so dependent on Russia for its energy, despite its decision a decade ago, to decommission all of its nuclear power plants by next year and phase out the use of coal by 2030?
Scholz’s US trip will be followed by a meeting with the president of the European Council and the heads of Baltic states before he visits Ukraine and Russia next week.
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Emmanuel Macron’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow has stirred a lot of interest, but some are sceptical about what the French president is trying to do.
In an interview with the Journal du Dimanche ahead of the trip, Macron said he believed that “the geopolitical objective of Russia today is clearly not Ukraine, but to clarify the rules of cohabitation with Nato and the EU”.
The French president has said several times that Europe needs to devise a new security architecture for the continent that takes into account the expiry of a cold war-era arms control treaties.
Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister, said he was at a loss to understand what Macron meant about coming up with “a new order of security and stability”, according to the Voice of America website.
In a reference to the European security system built on Nato, Bildt said:
These next few months rather seem to call for firm defence of the existing post-1989 order.
Macron, who was burned last summer when EU allies binned his proposal with Angela Merkel for an EU summit with Putin, has been consulting widely with other EU member states.
Here is Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas:
Good to speak to President @EmmanuelMacron today. Reviewed latest developments regarding Russian military build-up and prospects for diplomacy. Discussed our unified stance and commend his committment to diplomacy and stronger deterrence. #WeAreAllies
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) February 6, 2022
The French ambassador to Nato, Muriel Domenach, lists the calls he says Macron has had in recent days.
Useful record of 🇫🇷 President @EmmanuelMacron ´s consultative calls. In addition, amg Allies’ heads of states and governments :M. Draghi, M. Rutte, V. Orban, J. Trudeau ; and 🇪🇺Ch Michel. + 🇫🇷 MFA @JY_LeDrian spoke to : 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 🇷🇴 🇵🇱 🇨🇿 🇧🇬 🇭🇺 🇸🇰 🇪🇪 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇮🇹 🇪🇸 🇸🇪 🇫🇮 🇺🇸 counterparts https://t.co/jeovIWmogV
— Muriel Domenach (@MurielDomenach) February 7, 2022
Several EU analysts remain concerned by Macron’s proposals.
Notions like a new security order, Russia's legitimate security concerns and special intensity of the Franco-Russian dialogue are disconcerting. They do not reflect a joint EU position. Does Macron believe he can get a deal with Putin on different terms than the NATO as a whole?
— Piotr Buras (@PiotrBuras1) February 6, 2022
Macron: "I have always been in a deep dialogue with President Putin and our responsibility is to build historic solutions." That's the language that makes the rest of Europe quite nervous. https://t.co/pVOYwg7SiT
— Ulrich Speck (@ulrichspeck) February 6, 2022
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When Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, meets the US president, Joe Biden, in the White House later on Monday, one issue will not be far away: Nord Stream 2.
The Baltic Sea gas pipeline between Russia to Germany has always been hugely controversial. Now complete but pending regulatory approval, it has been caught in the crosshairs of Ukraine’s security crisis. The US has said Nord Stream 2 will not go forward if Russia invades Ukraine; Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, has promised it would be included as part of a “strong package of sanctions”.
If you are looking for a guide to why this project is so politically fraught for Germany and Europe, do read this excellent piece by the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour.
Here is a flavour:
But the one thing this pipeline is not, as lamely claimed by the former German chancellor Merkel, is a purely commercial project. It has vast geostrategic consequence, with every inch of pipe a pitched political and legal battle.
Indeed few engineering projects have thrown up so many issues: the restoration of the post-Soviet empire, the climate crisis, American bullying of Europe, Germany’s emotional embrace of Russia, the legal powers of the European Commission, corporate lobbying, energy forecasting, and Gazprom’s monopolistic model. Its fiercest critics have described it as a modern day betrayal on the scale of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact of 1939.
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EU and US hold talks on energy security
While questions mount about the future of Nord Stream 2, the controversial pipeline linking Russia and Germany, the European Union is looking elsewhere for gas supplies.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, and the bloc’s energy commissioner, Kadri Simson, are in Washington to discuss energy security with the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and other top officials.
I will co-chair tomorrow’s EU-US Energy Council with my good colleagues HR/VP @JosepBorrellF, @SecBlinken & @SecGranholm.
— Kadri Simson (@KadriSimson) February 7, 2022
Our meeting will help to further take forward #EU-#US cooperation on #energysecurity & on #cleanenergytransition. pic.twitter.com/boiQlKvicG
The US and EU recently pledged to work together on energy supplies in an attempt to limit the effects of any Russia retaliation, for example reducing gas flows to Europe in response to western sanctions. The US is already the EU’s biggest supplier of liquified natural gas; the EU is also talking to Norway, Qatar, Azerbaijan and Algeria about boosting supplies.
The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has been speaking on this topic at a conference on Monday.
We are building a partnership for energy security with the United States, which is primarily about more LNG gas supplies. We are talking to other gas suppliers, for example Norway, about increasing their supplies to Europe.
(Quote via Reuters)
Critics would say the EU has been too slow to reduce its dependence on Russian gas: the bloc gets 41% of its natural gas imports from Russia, a figure that has hardly changed in more than a decade of turbulent relations between Moscow and European capitals.
Even EU insiders admit the EU has not done enough.
Here is Borrell in a blogpost ahead of his trip to Washington:
In recent years, Russia has enhanced its resilience against economic sanctions, by increasing its foreign currency reserves, more than we have done to enhance our capacity to face potential gas supply cuts. We should urgently consider developing EU strategic gas reserves and the possibility of joint gas purchasing, as the commission has suggested.
He is referring to European Commission proposals for voluntary joint purchase of gas reserves, part of a series of measures being discussed in response to soaring gas prices.
This is Jennifer Rankin, taking over from Paul Owen, who launched today’s liveblog.
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Hello, and welcome to our live blog of the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Today looks set to be dominated by diplomacy, as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, heads to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, holds talks in Washington with Joe Biden.
Russia still denies planning to invade Ukraine but has tens of thousands of troops near the border. Moscow says it could take unspecified military measures if its demands – including a promise by Nato never to admit Kyiv – are not met. These terms are unacceptable to Nato.
The White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that Russia could invade Ukraine “any day”, triggering a conflict that would come at an “enormous human cost”.
Macron believes he can deliver “a historic solution” to the crisis. Moscow has given the visit a guarded welcome, saying it would listen to the French president’s ideas, but played down expectations of a breakthrough.
The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said:
The situation is too complex to expect decisive breakthroughs in the course of one meeting. In recent days there has been nothing new on the topic of security guarantees for Russia, our western interlocutors prefer not to mention this topic.
Two sources close to Macron told Reuters that one aim of his visit was to buy time and freeze the situation for several months.
Unlike in the previous Ukraine crisis in 2015 when Angela Merkel and François Hollande travelled to the Kremlin together, Macron has not taken his German counterpart with him. Scholz will be travelling to Kyiv and then Moscow next week.
Instead Scholz is in Washington meeting Biden. A continuing bone of contention between their two countries is the Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany. US spokespeople have stated that the pipeline “will not move forward” if Russia attacks Ukraine, but the German chancellor has not gone that far.
We’ll cover all this and more here throughout the day.
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