Summary
It was a busy day of diplomacy, threats and warnings. Here is a summary of all the developments:
- The UK has warned Moscow that an invasion of Ukraine would be met with “massive consequences for Russia’s interests and economy”.
- Foreign secretary Liz Truss said the UK government will also bring in new sanctions legislation so “those in and around the Kremlin will have nowhere to hide”.
- Truss added that the government was “considering options for further deployments of our armed forces”.
- The Kremlin slammed proposed UK sanctions as an “outright attack on business” and has threatened to retaliate.
- Italian media have reported six Russian warships entered the Mediterranean Sea on Monday and might be heading towards the Black Sea.
- Ukraine said 130,000 Russian military personnel are close to its borders.
- Boris Johnson’s ‘partygate’ crisis may have meant he missed an opportunity for a high-stakes call with Vladimir Putin on Ukraine.
- Russia, with its ally China, failed to block a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine from going ahead.
- Russia has launched the ‘largest mobilisation of troops in Europe in decades,’ according to the US.
- Washington warned of “decisive, swift and united” action if Russia invades.
- Russia accused the west of ‘hysterics’ over troop deployments near Ukraine.
We will be closing the blog down shortly. When we do, be sure to follow our US Politics live blog. Washington is considering sanctions, with some calls to implement them even before an invasion.
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Boris Johnson call with Putin delayed, possibly cancelled, due to ‘partygate’
Overwhelmed by a scandal over boozy lockdown parties at 10 Downing Street, Boris Johnson was unable to make a high-stakes scheduled call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Monday.
As the UK Prime Minister batted away calls to resign in parliament, his spokesman said the call may now slip to Tuesday. It was not clear if Moscow has agreed to the late-minute rejig.
Earlier on Monday, Johnson said he had tough words prepared for the call on Ukraine. “What I will say to President Putin is, as I’ve said before, that I think we really all need to step back from the brink and I think Russia needs to step back from the brink,” he said.
But the call may now need to start with an apology from Johnson, if it happens at all.
Earlier, the Mirror newspaper reported the talk had been cancelled as the Russians could not shift the timing.
Senior civil servant Sue Gray long-awaited report was published on Monday. It had several criticisms for Downing Street, including the “excessive consumption of alcohol” and “failures of leadership and judgment by different parts of No 10 and the Cabinet Office at different times”.
Johnson, whose political career is at stake, apologised in parliament on Monday: “I want to say sorry.”
UK ‘preparing an unprecedented package of coordinated sanctions’
Truss says any invasion of Ukraine would be met with “massive consequences for Russia’s interests and economy”.
“Today, I am setting out our readiness to act”, she said, adding that the government is proposing new legislation to sanction a “much broader” number of people and businesses linked to the Kremlin.
“Those in and around the Kremlin will have nowhere to hide,” she adds.
That last comment was made to laughs in parliament, likely because London has been nicknamed ‘Londongrad’ as it has been used as a location for Russian oligarchs to keep and spend their money.
Truss ends by saying the government will not immediately say who they plan to sanction.
UK foreign secretary says London considering further military deployments
UK foreign secretary Liz Truss tells the British parliament the government is “considering options for further deployments of our armed forces to reassure and protect allies on Nato’s eastern flank”.
She says London will consider supplying Nato with more “fast jets, warships and military specialists”.
“The UK is determined to lead the way through deterrence and diplomacy”.
Updated
The UN meeting in New York has finished. Heading over to the Mediterranean now, where my colleague, Lorenzo Tondo, reports on possible Russian warship movement:
Six Russian warships entered the Mediterranean Sea today and might be heading towards the Black Sea in the next few hours, according to media reports in Italy.
The vessels from the Russian Navy’s Northern Fleet, were allegedly spotted by a Spanish Navy Meteoro class offshore patrol vessel entering the Central Mediterranean early on Monday via the Strait of Gibraltar.
According to the Italian newspaper la Repubblica, the vessels are carrying 60 tanks and over 1,500 soldiers. The warships are currently navigating in the Sicilian Channel. The news was repeated by Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defence minister, who had been speaking about the likelihood of a Russian invasion. “Six Russian warships had just entered the Mediterranean,” Zagorodnyuk said, adding: “If they enter the Black Sea we will change our views to negative.”
Moscow has not confirmed the reports.
Ukraine says about 130,000 Russian military personnel threaten country
Back at the UN, Ukraine’s representative, Sergiy Kyslytsya, says there are 130,000 Russian military personnel on Ukraine borders. “The question is ‘why are all these Russian forces there?’” he asks.
He says there are there to pressure Ukraine to make “illegitimate” concessions.
Ukraine should be allowed to make “alliances”, he says, in a reference to Nato.
The US State Department has just confirmed that Secretary of State Tony Blinken will talk by phone tomorrow with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.
It will be the first time they have talked since the US delivered a written response to Russian demands.
Boris Johnson telephone call with Putin might be cancelled due to 'partygate'
Heading away from New York and over to London, my former colleague Pippa Crerar is reporting that Boris Johnson’s domestic woes around ‘Partygate’ have meant he won’t make an important call with Putin today.
Crerar said that once the report into whether parties at Downing Street was published today, the UK prime minister attempted to delay the call but was rebuffed.
I'm told Boris Johnson's planned call with Russian President Vladimir Putin today has been cancelled.
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) January 31, 2022
When the Gray report landed the Russians were asked to shift the time - but they couldn't. So it's off...
More quick analysis from my colleague in New York, Julian Borger:
The Russian permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, echoed Moscow’s tactic of ridiculing any thought that there might be a threat to Ukraine, while also delivering a threat.
He ended his address to the Security Council with these chilling lines:
“If our western partners push Kyiv to sabotage the Minsk agreements, something that Ukraine is willingly doing, that might end in the absolute worst way for Ukraine. And not because somebody has destroyed it, but because it would have destroyed itself, and Russia has absolutely nothing to do with this.”
(Note: the Minsk agreement aimed to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine and was signed in 2015 by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France.)
Kenya’s representative to the UN, Martin Kimani, frames the crisis as a power battle between Nato and Russia, which he says is solvable through cooperation.
Kimani ends by quoting an African proverb:
When the elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.
On troop numbers, my colleague in Kyiv, Luke Harding, has an update from Ukraine’s former defence minister:
Andriy Zagorodnyuk has been speaking about the likelihood of a Russian invasion. Last week, he published a much-cited paper arguing the Kremlin did not currently have sufficient troops to launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine.
In an update today Zagorodnyuk said Moscow has now stationed 135,000 troops on Ukraine’s border. The number had gone up by 8-10,000 ahead of Russian military exercises this week in Belarus, he said. Asked if a Russian attack was about to happen he said: “No. it’s not imminent. We don’t believe the apocalyptic large-scale scenario by mass media is reasonable.”
But he said there was a “high risk” of Vladimir Putin launching an operation in the eastern Donbas region, where the Ukrainian military has faced off since 2014 against Russian-backed separatists.
Nebenzya is now questioning the 100,000 troop figure that western countries cite as being on Ukraine’s borders.
He accused the west of “pumping Ukraine full of weapons”.
Russia accuses west of 'hysterics' over troop deployment near Ukraine
Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, starts his speech by thanking China – which opposed – and the three countries that abstained from the vote to hold the meeting.
He says the “deployment of troops in our own territory” does not mean there will be an “act of aggression”, and that there is no need for “hysterics”.
“There is no proof” that such an action will take place, he says.
Russia has repeatedly denied it will invade Ukraine, he adds.
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China’s ambassador to the UN, Chen Xu, repeats that Beijing opposed holding this public meeting at the security council.
The ambassador says Russia has made clear it will not invade.
“What we urgently need now is quiet diplomacy but not ‘microphone’ diplomacy,” he says.
“Regrettably, the US did not accept such a proposal.”
India’s representative to the UN, TS Tirumurti – who abstained in the vote on whether to hold the meeting – has called for a “de-escalation”.
Ghana’s representative Harold Adlai Agyeman – who also abstained – has noted that Russia’s troops are still within Russia, in a line that will please Moscow. He also calls for “peace” and “dialogue” and says “we should also note the delicate situation”.
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France’s UN ambassador, Nicolas de Rivière, says the international response will be “robust and united” if Russia invades. (Clearly coordinating speeches with US and UK)
India’s representative now speaking …
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UK deputy representative to the UN, James Kariuki, is more technical and less forthright than his US colleague. He is cautioning against war, based on how “destabilising” it would be.
However, a day after the UK foreign secretary said London was preparing sanctions, one part of Kariuki’s speech does have bite: he warned such a war would be “costly” for Russia.
Updated
Albania’s representative just spoke; now on to the UK.
Thomas-Greenfield had some new figures. She said that there were 10,000 Russian troops already in Belarus with heavy armaments, and there are expected to be 30,000 there by early February, ie in the coming days.
The Ukrainian UN representative will be speaking towards the end of the session. It will be interesting to see if their permanent representative echoes the Kyiv line, playing down the threat.
US says seeks peace but will be 'decisive, swift and united' if Russia invades
US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield says:
We seek the path of peace. We seek the path of dialogue. We do not want confrontation. But we will be decisive, swift and united should Russia further invade Ukraine.”
Note: Thomas-Greenfield says “further invade” as she is referring to past incursions.
Russia launched 'largest mobilisation of troops in Europe in decades,' US says
The US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, is speaking.
Russian threats to Ukraine “also threaten Europe”, she said, calling Moscow’s actions “aggressive behaviour”.
Thomas-Greenfield says 100,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s border is “the largest mobilisation of troops in Europe in decades”.
Updated
The US, UK, Norway, UAE, Albania, Brazil, Ghana, France, Ireland, and Mexico all voted to have the debate.
Some snap analysis from my colleague, Julian Borger:
This was the last day in which the US could hold a Security Council meeting on Ukraine before Russia takes over the presidency on the council, allowing Moscow to frame the debate.
This is the last day of the Norwegian presidency.
Russia tried to stop the hearing going forward, but the US only needed nine votes to make sure it went ahead and got 10 votes. Only China voted with Russia against holding the session. Gabon, India and Kenya abstained.
US wins security council vote for Ukraine meeting to go ahead
For meeting: 10
Against: 2
Abstensions: 3
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They are voting …
Updated
US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, is now responding.
She says this is not about “antics”.
“Imagine how uncomfortable you would feel if you had 100,000 troops on your border,” he adds.
Updated
Russia moves to block UN security council meeting
Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, has called for a vote on whether the security council should hold the meeting on Ukraine today.
Moscow will now need support from nine of the 15 members.
Nebenzya says the meeting was called on “unfounded accusations” and talks about “the myth of Russian aggression”.
Nebenzya said the topic is “extremely sensitive” and calls it “megaphone diplomacy” by the US to “whip up hysterics”.
Updated
The United Nations Security Council is in session for what is likely to be a confrontational debate between world power over Russia’s troop build-up on the Ukraine border.
It will be the first time the global body will discuss recent threats of a Russian invasion.
Seems there is a genuine effort to block the meeting from going ahead.
China’s ambassador to the UN, Chen Xu, said Beijing is against the meeting, calling it “microphone diplomacy”.
He calls for “quiet diplomacy”.
Efforts are under way to block the vote, he confirms.
Updated
France’s ambassador to the UN, Nicolas de Rivière, has told reporters outside the security council room that he thinks the debate will go ahead.
That suggests he believes Russia will not have enough votes to block the meeting, which it might attempt to do.
Updated
Heads up. The UN security council meeting starts in less than 10 minutes. Expect diplomatic fireworks.
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Ukraine says arrested group planning mass riots
Ukraine’s interior minister Denys Monastyrsky has given a briefing saying a group of people who were planning mass riots in Kyiv were detained by authorities on Sunday.
He claimed the plan was to gather thousands of people in the city centre, including “up to 1,500 thugs who would start fights with law enforcement officers”. He said the plotters had fake blood to provoke panic.
In Ukraine, many officials are more worried about this kind of “hybrid” threat they say is backed by Russia than the prospect of a full-blown invasion, which is considered less likely.
Ukraine has also seen a spate of thousands of bomb threats phoned into police stations across the country – there were more than 3,000 in the first three weeks of the year, all of them false.
Britain is about to exploit one of the benefits of Brexit – the freedom to impose sanctions without waiting for the most reluctant member of the EU to be brought on board.
The UK became sovereign over its sanctions policy on leaving the EU, giving London the ability to remain in lockstep with US policy.
Hence the tough policy on Putin’s cronies to be unveiled by the foreign secretary Liz Truss on Monday is likely to be very similar to the package being trailed in the US by the Biden administration.
None of this would be implemented unless and until Russia invaded Ukraine, although there has been a debate in the US about whether some of the measures should be announced regardless of Russian troop movements.
The ability of the UK to set out powerful deterrent sanctions is a sign of UK agility and flexibility post Brexit in stark contrast with the inability of the EU to do the same. Standing alongside the UK defence minister Ben Wallace, the Hungarian defence minister Tibor Benko signalled a looming problem for the EU. He said the prime interest was not sanctions or conflict, but dialogue, before adding various criticisms of the way in which sanctions policy is selectively enforced.
Hungary has been one the countries most critical about sanctions on Russia and could now repeat this role. The manner in which the EU takes decisions in foreign policy – through unanimity – requires the EU to run at the speed of the slowest.
Simon Tisdall, our foreign affairs commentator, has taken a look at what Putin seeks to gain from all the panic – even without an invasion – and what he could lose in the process:
It’s true Putin has succeeded in forcing the US to focus on Russia’s security concerns, including future missile deployments and Nato exercises. He will keep up the military and diplomatic pressure for now, to see what concessions and freebies he can get.
But Washington will not agree to freeze Ukraine out of Nato or remake Europe’s post-cold war security structures, and Putin surely knows it. Meanwhile, his aggressive tactics have rallied the fractious western democracies and stiffened opposition to his regime.
While a watching world is waiting for Putin, Biden is threatening to sanction him personally, as urged in this space last week. Like a thief in the night looking to see what he can grab, Russia’s leader makes a pariah of himself and his country on the global stage.
War or no war, real or imaginary, that look likes defeat.
A group of European parliamentarians have voiced solidarity with Ukraine during a visit to the port city of Mariupol, close to the frontline where Russian-backed separatists hold territory.
David McAllister, a German centre-right MEP who leads the European parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said the Russian military build-up was “a huge concern for all of us in Europe because the country of Ukraine is closely linked to security all over our continent”.
He added:
The European parliament has been very clear in its call on Russia to deescalate the situation. This conflict, this crisis can only be solved by diplomatic means and that is why we call for continued efforts through diplomatic talks in all different formats … The ball is in the Russian court.
He was accompanied by Nathalie Loiseau, an ally of the French president Emmanuel Macron, who chairs the parliament’s subcommittee on security and defence.
She said:
We already see Russia trying to destabilise your country through disinformation, cyber-attacks and diverse manipulations. We will stand firm and we will continue to support Ukraine because nothing about the future of Ukraine can be decided without the Ukrainians.
The European parliament has no formal foreign policy powers, which tends to make it more assertive than EU member governments. In a resolution adopted last month, MEPs said that sanctions should include cutting Russia from the Swift international payments system, as well as blocking the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. In contrast, neither the European Council (of EU leaders), nor the EU council of ministers has spelled out the sanctions Russia could face for invading Ukraine.
The eight-strong delegation of MEPs will be in Kyiv on Tuesday to meet Ukraine’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal, the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, as well as its committees on foreign affairs, EU integration, security and defence.
Updated
The US and the UK, home to leading financial centres, are clearly gearing up to announce a coordinated effort to target members of the Russian elite with economic sanctions if the Kremlin orders an invasion of Ukraine.
The language from today’s US briefing – that economic sanctions will target Russian elite members “in or near the inner circles of the Kremlin” – is almost identical to that used by British foreign secretary Liz Truss on Sunday.
Truss had warned that sanctions could target “oligarchs close to the Kremlin”. However, neither the US nor the UK is yet willing to make any names public, conscious of legal and security risks.
American officials referred to a long list of names drawn up under the Trump administration in 2018, which contains 114 senior government figures and a further 96 “oligarchs” as people who could be sanctioned.
Updated
Ukraine’s foreign minister has unsurprisingly welcomed the UK’s threat of sanctions on oligarchs close to the Kremlin as a deterrent.
Boris Johnson to call Vladimir Putin today
British prime minister Boris Johnson will speak to Russian president Vladimir Putin later on Monday, as London attempts to pressure Moscow over its troop build-up on the border with Ukraine.
“The prime minister is expected to speak to President Putin this afternoon,” Johnson’s spokesman told reporters.
That will be an awkward call. It comes as London is preparing possible sanctions on Putin’s inner circle.
On Sunday, UK foreign minister Liz Truss said legislation to allow Britain to hit banks, energy companies and “oligarchs close to the Kremlin” would be introduced by the government this week.
“The number one thing that will stop Vladimir Putin taking action is if he understands the cost of that action,” she told the BBC.
Truss will make a statement to parliament on the Russia sanctions regime later today, and Johnson and Truss will travel to Ukraine on Tuesday.
Updated
While the west waits anxiously for war, it appears the people of the two countries that would be directly involved in it are less concerned.
In Moscow, as my colleague Andrew Roth has found, US warnings of an imminent attack are not shared.
Roth reports:
As Russia approaches a perhaps even more fateful war, it feels as though the public has barely taken note, despite the warning signs coming from both sides.
He spoke to Konstantin Danilin, 36, who had brought his two daughters to go tubing at Park Patriot, an amusement park just outside Moscow. Danilin said talk of war was “hysteria”, adding: “Putin is aggressive: he takes risks, it’s possible he makes mistakes. But this is all just a negotiation.”
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has talked down the threat of war, despite the 100,000 Russian troops gathered on his country’s border.
Moscow moved in additional troops before major diplomatic negotiations, he said, to build diplomatic pressure and get concessions. “It’s psychological. They want to make believe they are there. They are trying to build up psychological pressure.”
However, Zelenskiy has an interest in playing down any perceived threats. Reports of imminent war, he said, were causing panic in the financial sector, and depleting Ukraine’s gold reserves and currency.
Updated
Russia says UK sanctions would be an 'outright attack on business'
The Kremlin has criticised Britain’s announcement of new legislation to target Russian firms and oligarchs in the event of a war in Ukraine as an “outright attack on business” and has threatened to retaliate.
“The statements made in London are very disquieting. I believe they don’t just make us, our companies worry, they also demonstrate a significant degree of London’s unpredictability, which is a reason for serious concern from international financial institutions and business entities,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said during a telephone briefing.
Peskov did not specifically respond to threats against wealthy Russians close to Putin. But he did describe the threat of sanctions as illegitimate, saying that they would harm both Russian and British business interests.
“We should call a spade a spade: sanctions are something legitimate, formalised by a resolution of the UN security council, while here we are dealing with an outright attack on business,” he said during the call.
Updated
Russia’s state-owned gas company is politely reminding Europe how its liquid gas reserves are at an “all-time low”.
Gazprom just tweeted that Europe’s underground gas facilities hold nearly 30% less gas than they did this time last year. They are around 40% full, it said.
— Gazprom (@GazpromEN) January 31, 2022
The not-so-subtle subtext: don’t rock the boat. Europe is reliant on Russia for energy.
Updated
Britain has also sought to dissuade Vladimir Putin from military action by signalling its willingness to impose severe economic sanctions.
On Sunday, foreign secretary Liz Truss said legislation to allow Britain to hit banks, energy companies and “oligarchs close to the Kremlin” will be introduced by the government this week.
“We absolutely need to stop [an invasion from] happening,” Truss told the BBC. “The number one thing that will stop Vladimir Putin taking action is if he understands the cost of that action.”
The British government has been accused of allowing Kremlin-linked money to flow easily through the City of London - which has been nicknamed ‘Londongrad’.
Truss is travelling to Ukraine this week and has plans to travel to Moscow the week after.
US has prepared list of Russian elites, families to hit with sanctions
The US and its allies have prepared a list of Russian elites linked to Vladimir Putin’s inner circle to hit with economic sanctions should Russia invade Ukraine, a senior US administration official has said.
The official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said the individuals “play a role in government decision-making or are at a minimum complicit in the Kremlin’s destabilising behaviour”.
The sanctions will also target family members, the official said.
Targeting Russian oligarchs is only one part of a plan by the US and its allies to punish Putin should he launch an invasion. Russia denies that it plans to invade Ukraine.
The US official said many of the individuals are particularly vulnerable targets because of deepened financial ties with the west.
“Putin’s cronies will no longer be able to use their spouses or other family members as proxies to evade sanctions. Sanctions would cut them off from the international financial system and ensure that they and their family members will no longer able to enjoy the perks of parking their money in the west and attending elite western universities,” the official added.
On Sunday, a US Senate foreign relations committee said it was on the verge of approving “the mother of all sanctions”.
“Putin will not stop if he believes the west will not respond,” said the panel’s Democratic chair, Bob Menendez of New Jersey. “We saw what he did in 2008 in Georgia, we saw what he did in 2014 in pursuit of Crimea. He will not stop.”
Updated
Aside from the security council meeting, Joe Biden will host the Emir of Qatar at the White House today in the hopes that the gas-rich Gulf nation might offset an energy crisis if Russia invades Ukraine.
Any Russian invasion into Ukraine would almost surely trigger economic sanctions from the US and its European allies. That could lead to oil and gas shortages around the world. There are also concerns Russia will cut supplies to Europe, although Moscow denies this.
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani is expected to tell the US president that his country will explore providing short-term emergency liquid gas to help replace any shortages.
According to the EU’s statistics agency, Eurostat, EU countries draw roughly 40% of their gas imports from Russia. Germany is especially dependent.
As the world’s second-biggest exporter of liquified natural gas – and being a close US ally – Qatar is seen as an option to avoid an energy meltdown.
Updated
Russia, US, and Ukraine to face off at UN security council
The United Nations security council is scheduled to meet later today for what is expected to be a testy confrontation between US and Russian diplomats over Moscow’s troop build-up on the Ukraine border.
It will be the first time the global body will discuss recent threats of a Russian invasion, which has left world governments on edge.
Washington called for the meeting last week. US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, has described it in stark terms as a talk on “Russian aggression”.
“We’re going to go into the council prepared to listen to Russia’s security concerns, but we’re not going to be distracted by their propaganda,” she tweeted.
Russia’s deputy UN ambassador Dmitry Polyansky has been no less assertive, calling the meeting a “clear PR stunt shameful for the reputation of UN security council”.
Under council rules – and adding to tensions – Ukraine will also speak.
While it is possible Russia might attempt to block the meeting with a vote, it will need support from nine of the 15 members.
Good morning readers. Oliver Holmes here. I’ll be your live blogger for what looks to be a lively day of diplomacy.
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