Russia’s actions on the Ukrainian border could lead not only to war in that country but to a much wider conflict, the Guardian’s world affairs editor Julian Borger reports from Washington.
Julian writes that the increased deployment of Russian and Nato forces in the region significantly increases the danger of accidents and unintended consequences.
Danny Sjursen, a former army major and director of the Eisenhower Media Network, tells him: “The risk of something going down like a mid-air collision, or a trigger-happy Russian or American, can really escalate things quickly.”
Read the full story here.
Summary
Here’s a round-up of the day’s biggest developments from the crisis in Ukraine.
- Ukraine has announced a $592m (£437m) fund to help guarantee the continuation of flights through its airspace after a number of airlines signalled they would begin rerouting flights. The prime minister, Denys Shmygal, said the money would be “allocated to ensure flight safety in Ukraine for insurance and leasing companies”.
- The British defence secretary, Ben Wallace, announced he had cancelled a planned long weekend abroad with his family. He said he had taken the decision because the government was “concerned about the worsening situation in Ukraine”.
- The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, held an hour-long phone call with President Biden. Zelenskiy used the call to urge Biden to increase US support to Ukraine and to visit the country as a show of support.
- On the same call, Biden told Zelenskiy the US would respond “swiftly and decisively” to Russian aggression.
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Ukraine has requested talks with Russia and other members of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe within 48 hours.
- The remaining diplomatic staff in the US embassy in Ukraine have been relocated from Kyiv to the western city of Lviv.
- Canada has temporarily withdrawn its military personnel from Ukraine to an undisclosed location in Europe.
- Boris Johnson is planning to hold more talks with world leaders this week as part of attempts to bring Russia “back from the brink”.
- Newly re-elected German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, called on Vladimir Putin to “untie the noose around Ukraine’s neck”.
- US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the world is “in a window when invasion could begin at any time”.
- Zelenskiy asked to see evidence to substantiate claims by Western leaders that Russia could launch an invasion within days.
- Ukraine received further shipments of anti-aircraft missiles and ammunition from the US and Lithuania.
- Preparations are underway in Poland for a possible influx of refugees from Ukraine.
- More than a dozen countries have now advised their citizens to leave Ukraine or to avoid travel to the country.
Updated
The British prime minister, Boris Johnson, is planning to hold more talks with world leaders this week as part of attempts to bring Russia “back from the brink” of invading Ukraine.
The prime minister is understood to be receiving daily intelligence briefings on the situation and to want to work with allies to continue providing support to the government in Kyiv, PA reports.
A statement from Downing Street read: “The crisis on Ukraine’s border has reached a critical juncture.
“All the information we have suggests Russia could be planning an invasion of Ukraine at any moment. This would have disastrous consequences for both Ukraine and Russia.
“There is still a window of opportunity for de-escalation and diplomacy, and the prime minister will continue to work tirelessly alongside our allies to get Russia to step back from the brink.”
The statement didn’t set out which world leaders the prime minister hopes to speak with or where he will be travelling, but he is understood to planning to travel to Europe near the end of this week.
Updated
Pictures show members of the Ukrainian military unloading a consignment of weaponry from Lithuania on Sunday.
The shipment contained US-made Stinger surface-to-air anti-aircraft missiles as well as ammunition, Reuters reports.
It followed another two planes that delivered some 180 tonnes of ammunition from the US earlier in the day.
Officials in Ukraine say the country has been able to significantly increase the capacity of its armed forces with similar shipments from the US, Britain, Turkey, and other allies in recent weeks.
Canada has temporarily withdrawn its military personnel from Ukraine, the country’s defence ministry has said.
Since 2015, Canada has maintained a mission of around 200 troops in Ukraine to help train the country’s soldiers, Reuters reports.
Canada’s defence ministry said on Sunday that armed forces stationed in Ukraine had been moved to an undisclosed location in Europe owing to the “complex operational environment linked to Russia’s unwarranted aggression against Ukraine”.
It comes after the government in Ottawa yesterday announced the relocation of its diplomatic staff from Kyiv to an office in the western city of Lviv.
Canada has the third-largest population of Ukrainian people in the world after Ukraine and Russia.
Updated
Zelenskiy asks Biden to visit Ukraine
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has reportedly asked Joe Biden to visit Ukraine.
The two leaders had a phone call on Sunday morning Eastern Time that lasted roughly an hour.
Zelenskiy used the call to ask Biden to visit Ukraine “as soon as possible”, CNN reports, citing a Ukrainian official who had been briefed on the conversation.
Zelenskiy is also said to have asked Biden to increase current support to “show Putin that the west stands with Ukraine”.
US officials have reportedly cast doubt on the prospect of Biden making a visit to Ukraine.
In a tweet following the call, Zelenskiy said the two had talked about “security, economy, existing risks, sanctions and Russian aggression”.
Updated
Ukraine has asked for talks with Russia and other members of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) within 48 hours to discuss the build-up of Russian forces on its border.
It comes after Ukraine’s invocation of the Vienna document, a series of security and confidence-building agreements between the 57 members of the OCSE, on Friday.
In a series of tweets, the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said Russia had failed to respond to the questions raised within the 48-hour window allowed.
“Consequently, we take the next step,” he said.
“We request a meeting with Russia and all participating states within 48 hours to discuss its reinforcement and redeployment along our border and in temporarily occupied Crimea.
“If Russia is serious when it talks about the indivisibility of security in the OSCE space, it must fulfil its commitment to military transparency in order to de-escalate tensions and enhance security for all.”
Russia failed to respond to our request under the Vienna Document. Consequently, we take the next step. We request a meeting with Russia and all participating states within 48 hours to discuss its reinforcement & redeployment along our border & in temporarily occupied Crimea 1/2
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) February 13, 2022
Updated
Zelenskiy reportedly used a call with Biden on Sunday to ask that the US increase its financial and military support.
The pair spoke by phone for just under an hour on Sunday morning Eastern Time.
Speaking to CNN, a Ukrainian official who had been briefed on the call said that the Ukrainian president sought to offer “concrete ideas to diminish the Russian threat to Ukraine”.
He is said to have asked Biden to up the US’s provision of advanced weaponry and to set out a significant package of financial support.
Updated
Kyiv creates $592m fund to keep airspace open
Ukraine has announced the creation of a $592m fund to guarantee the continuation of flights through its airspace, Reuters reports.
It comes after ongoing tensions prompted a number of airlines to review whether they would continue to send flights into Ukrainian airspace.
Dutch carrier KLM has already cancelled flights to Ukraine, while Germany’s Lufthansa said it was considering suspending air traffic.
Announcing the fund on social media, Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said the money would be “allocated to ensure flight safety in Ukraine for insurance and leasing companies”.
“This decision will stabilise the situation on the market of passenger air transportation and will guarantee the return to Ukraine of our citizens who are currently abroad,” he said.
Updated
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has asked to see evidence to support claims that Russia intends to invade Ukraine within days.
It follows reports that the US has picked up intelligence suggesting an invasion could be launched as early as this Wednesday.
The White House’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, also told CBS’s Face The Nation on Sunday that Putin could give an order for military action “essentially at any time”.
Speaking the same day in a live broadcast, Zelenskiy said: “We understand all the risks, we understand that there are risks.
“If you, or anyone else, has additional information regarding a 100% Russian invasion starting on the 16th, please forward that information to us.”
Updated
The German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has called on Vladimir Putin to “untie the noose around Ukraine’s neck”.
Speaking following his re-election for a second five-year term, Steinmeier said that responsibility for ongoing tensions lay with Russia, AFP reported.
The comments come as the newly-elected chancellor, Olaf Scholz, prepares to travel to Kyiv to meet with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on Monday and then on to Moscow to meet with Putin on Tuesday.
They also follow criticism of Germany by some for its apparent reticence to back measures proposed by its allies in the US and Europe to deter Russian aggression against Ukraine.
“I appeal to President Putin: Lift the noose from the neck of Ukraine,” Steinmeier said.
“We are in the midst of a military conflict, a war in Eastern Europe. Russia is responsible for this.
“People [in Ukraine] have a right to a life without fear and threats, to sovereignty, and to self-rule. No country in the world has the right to destroy it, and we will respond resolutely to anyone who tries this.”
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US will respond "swiftly and decisively" to Russian aggression, Biden tells Zelenskiy
Joe Biden has told the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, that the US will respond “swiftly and decisively” to any further Russian aggression.
The two leaders spoke by phone for just under an hour on Sunday morning Eastern Time, CNN reported.
A White House readout of the call said: “President Joseph R Biden spoke today with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine. President Biden reaffirmed the commitment of the United States to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
“President Biden made clear that the United States would respond swiftly and decisively, together with its allies and partners, to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine.
“The two leaders agreed on the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence in response to Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s borders.”
Updated
The US embassy to Ukraine’s remaining diplomatic staff will work from the western city of Lviv, the online newspaper Ukrainskaya Pravda cited a US diplomatic source as saying on Sunday.
Washington said on Saturday it was ordering most staff at its embassy in Kyiv to leave Ukraine immediately due to the threat of an invasion by Russia.
“This is a temporary decision, the embassy team will return to Kyiv as soon as the security situation allows,” the source was quoted as saying.
Fears of flying over Ukrainian airspace have led some airlines to scrap or divert flights as tensions between the west and Kremlin mount over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Dutch carrier KLM cancelled flights to Ukraine after the Netherlands government issued a travel warning over the risks of flying in the region, while Germany’s Lufthansa said it was considering suspending air traffic.
Read our full story here:
Ukraine has received a consignment of Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems and ammunition by plane from Lithuania, the defence ministry in Kyiv said on Sunday, according to Reuters.
Earlier on Sunday two other planes delivered about 180 tonnes of ammunition from the United States, Oleksii Reznikov said. Ukraine had so far received almost 1,500 tonnes of ammunition delivered on 17 flights, he said on Twitter.
Military officials say Ukraine has significantly strengthened its armed forces with the help of allies, equipping the army, in particular, with American and British anti-tank systems and Turkish drones.
Updated
The Pentagon has said that the latest top-level US-Russian contacts did not provide “any cause for optimism”, AFP reports.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby offered a grim assessment of the one-hour phone conversation on Saturday between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin.
“It’s certainly not a sign that things are moving in the right direction. It’s certainly not a sign that Mr Putin has any intention to de-escalate. And it’s certainly not a sign that he is recommitting himself to a diplomatic path forward,” Kirby told “Fox News Sunday” when asked about the lack of fundamental change after the call.
“So, it does not give us any cause for optimism.”
Summary
Here’s a recap of Sunday’s big developments on the Ukraine crisis.
- US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the world is “in a window when invasion could begin at any time” and warned of likely civilian casualties if war begins. Sullivan said, however, that while the last 10 days have seen an acceleration of Russia’s 130,000 troop buildup, the country could still resolve the crisis through the diplomatic route.
- The US State Department’s Derek Chollet elaborated on what president Joe Biden meant by the “swifts and severe costs” he threatened if an invasion occurs. First, considerable and “crippling” economic sanctions on Russia. Second, bolstering and building up military capacity on Nato’s eastern borders.
- Ukraine advised airlines to avoid flying over the open waters of the Black Sea from Monday to Saturday due to Russian naval exercises.
- Poland is preparing for a possible influx of refugees.
- UK defence secretary Ben Wallace caused controversy in today’s Sunday Times, saying there is a “whiff of Munich in the air” – referring to 1938 appeasement of the Nazis.
- Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, then complained that the alarms being sounded by the west risked playing into Putin’s hands.
- Wallace’s allies in the afternoon emphasised that the comparison to appeasement was intended to apply only if Putin was negotiating in bad faith and always planned to invade.
- Meanwhile, Wallace said he is cutting short a European family holiday overseas due to the Ukraine crisis.
- The US envoy to the UN cancelled a visit to Liberia to focus on New York-based diplomacy.
- Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz will tell Putin of “heavy consequences” if he attacks Ukraine at their meeting this week, but he doesn’t expect results.
- Europe may be on the brink of war, Germany’s vice-chancellor Robert Habeck added.
- Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, accused the country of “hypocrisy” over its refusal to supply defensive weapons to Kyiv.
- At least a dozen embassies have advised their citizens to leave Ukraine, avoid travel or question whether their presence is necessary.
That’s all from me, Jem Bartholomew in London, for today. Bye for now.
Updated
Poland preparing for influx of Ukrainian refugees
Poland is preparing for “various scenarios”, including a possible influx of refugees, if Russia were to attack Ukraine, Poland’s interior minister Mariusz Kaminski tweeted on Sunday.
“It is obvious that due to the situation in Ukraine we are preparing for various scenarios. One of them is the actions of the [provinces] related to the possible influx of refugees from Ukraine who, due to a possible conflict, may seek a safe haven in our country,” Kaminski said.
Poland and Ukraine share a 332-mile border.
🇵🇱🇺🇦 To oczywiste, że w związku z sytuacją na Ukrainie przygotowujemy się na różne scenariusze. Jednym z nich są działania wojewodów związane z ewentualnym napływem uchodźców z Ukrainy, którzy z powodu możliwego konfliktu, mogą szukać w naszym kraju bezpiecznego schronienia.
— Mariusz Kamiński (@Kaminski_M_) February 13, 2022
The mayor of the eastern Polish town of Ciechanow said on Saturday that he was asked by his regional government to prepare accommodation for possible refugees.
“We were asked to indicate the list of accommodation facilities for refugees, the number of people it would be possible to accommodate, the costs involved and the time for adaptation of buildings with a recommendation of up to 48 hours,” Krzysztof Kosinski tweeted.
In late-January, Poland’s deputy interior minister Maciej Wasik said Poland was bracing for up to 1 million Ukrainian migrants.
Updated
Ukraine tells airlines to skirt Black Sea amid Russian drills
Ukraine has advised airlines to avoid flying over the open waters of the Black Sea from Monday to Saturday due to Russian naval exercises taking place there, Reuters reports.
More than 30 Russian ships have started training exercises near the Crimea peninsula as part of wider navy drills, RIA news agency reported.
“From tomorrow, airlines are advised not to fly … over this area, and to plan optimal routes in advance, taking into account the current situation,” Ukraine’s state air traffic service said.
Ukrainian airspace remains open, and earlier on Sunday an adviser to president’s chief of staff said there was “no point” closing the skies.
“The most important point is that Ukraine itself sees no point in closing the sky. This is nonsense. And, in my opinion, it somewhat resembles a kind of partial blockade,” Mykhailo Podolyak told Reuters, after Dutch airline KLM suspended flights to Ukraine.
Updated
Allies of UK defence secretary Ben Wallace sought to clarify the minister’s controversial Munich comments on Sunday afternoon.
They emphasised that the comparison to the failed appeasement of 1938 was intended to apply only if Russia’s president Putin was negotiating in bad faith and always planned to invade Ukraine.
Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK Vadym Prystaiko on Sunday morning complained that the alarms being sounded by the west risked playing into Putin’s hands.
“It’s not the best time for us to offend our partners in the world, reminding them of this act which actually not bought peace but the opposite, it bought war,” the diplomat told the BBC.
It comes after Wallace told the Sunday Times: “It may be that he [Putin] just switches off his tanks and we all go home but there is a whiff of Munich in the air from some in the west.”
Updated
The US envoy to the UN has cancelled a visit to Liberia to focus on New York-based diplomacy over the Russian troop buildup on Ukraine’s borders, Reuters reports.
The US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, was scheduled to lead a presidential delegation to the Republic of Liberia from the 14-16 February.
Updated
US president Joe Biden and Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy will speak on Sunday at 10.45 ET (3.45pm GMT), the White House confirmed.
Zelenski’s spokesperson, Sergii Nykyforov, said on Facebook the two leaders “would discuss the security situation and ongoing diplomatic de-escalation efforts”.
Updated
Why does the west’s diplomacy with Russia keep failing?
This Atlantic article, by Anne Applebaum, is cauing ripples today, arguing the US and its Nato allies are stuck playing by an old rules-based diplomatic playbook while Russia, which only respects hard power, runs rings around them.
Tragically, the Western leaders and diplomats who are right now trying to stave off a Russian invasion of Ukraine still think they live in a world where rules matter, where diplomatic protocol is useful, where polite speech is valued. All of them think that when they go to Russia, they are talking to people whose minds can be changed by argument or debate. They think the Russian elite cares about things like its “reputation.” It does not.
In fact, when talking to the new breed of autocrats, whether in Russia, China, Venezuela, or Iran, we are now dealing with something very different: People who aren’t interested in treaties and documents, people who only respect hard power.
Applebaum suggests measures like stopping Russian oligarchs laundering money in London or Miami, ending reliance on Russian energy in Germany, or banning Russian political donations in France should be considered.
Now we are on the brink of what could be a catastrophic conflict. American, British, and European embassies in Ukraine are evacuating; citizens have been warned to leave. But this terrible moment represents not just a failure of diplomacy, it also reflects a failure of the Western imagination; a generation-long refusal, on the part of diplomats, politicians, journalists, and intellectuals, to understand what kind of state Russia was becoming and to prepare accordingly. We have refused to see the representatives of this state for what they are. We have refused to speak to them in a way that might have mattered. Now it might be too late.
Read the full story here.
Updated
Invasion could begin any time and would provoke innocent casualties, US's Jake Sullivan says
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke to CNN’s State of the Union about the crisis in Ukraine, saying the world is “in a window when invasion could begin at any time” and warning of likely civilian casualties if war begins.
Sullivan said, however, that while the last 10 days have seen an acceleration of Russia’s 130,000 troop build-up, the country could still resolve the crisis through the diplomatic route.
Commenting on reports Russia could attack Ukraine as early as Wednesday, Sullivan said:
We cannot perfectly predict the day, but we have now been saying for some time that we are in a window when an invasion could begin at any time, a major military action could begin by Russia in Ukraine any day now.
Asked why US citizens are being urged to leave the country, Sullivan said:
What we’ve seen just in the last 10 days or so is an acceleration of that build-up and the movement of Russian forces of all varieties closer to the border with Ukraine in a position where they could launch a military action very, very rapidly.
Sullivan said Russia is laying the ground-work for a “false flag” attack which it could use as a pretext for invading Ukraine. He added this intellgience has been shared with Nato allies who share the US’s conclusions.
This is consistent with the Russian playbook. We have seen them do this before.... If you look at the Russian media, they are laying the groundwork for a potential pretext by raising the possibility of attacks by Ukrainian forces on either Russians themselves or Russia’s proxy-forces in the Donbas.
Sullivan said civilian casualties were likely:
If there is a military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, it’s likely to begin with a significant barrage of missiles and bomb attacks. Those are never as precise as any army would like them to be ... so innocent civilians could be killed regardless of their nationality.
It would then be followed by an onslaught of a ground force moving across the Ukrainian frontier, again where innocent civilians could get caught in the crossfire, or get trapped in places that they could not move from.
Sullvian reiterated the US message that an invasion’s costs for Russia would be swift and severe, adding the US is drawing up lists of Russian economic elites and would potentially ship gas cargos to Europe if Russia “turns down the taps”.
We are prepared to respond immediately and decisively, flanked by our allies and partners. If Russia moves forward, we will defend Nato territory, we will impose costs on Russia and we will ensure that we emerge from this as the West stronger, more determined, more purposeful than we have been in 30 years, and that Russia ultimately suffers a significant strategic cost for military action.
Updated
Europe may be on the brink of war, Germany’s vice-chancellor Robert Habeck said on Sunday.
“We may be on the verge of war in Europe,” Habeck told broadcaster RTL/NTV. “It is absolutely oppressive and threatening.”
Meanwhile, chancellor Olaf Scholz will tell Russia’s president Vladimir Putin at their meeting this week of “heavy consequences” if he attacks Ukraine, but he doesn’t expect results.
Updated
Cyprus has joined the growing list of countries advising citizens to leave Ukraine. In a statement citing escalating tensions, the Mediterranean island’s ministry of foreign affairs also urged Cypriots to avoid any unnecessary travel to the country.
“On account of information regarding further possible escalation of tensions in the area, the ministry recommends Republic of Cyprus citizens to avoid travelling to Ukraine,” the statement said.
The ministry also encouraged citizens residing permanently in the country to either register on the online platform Connect2Cyprus or contact the EU member state’s embassy in Ukraine. “If their presence in the country is not necessary, Cypriot citizens are encouraged to leave,” the statement concluded.
Updated
Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz will tell Russia’s president Vladimir Putin of “heavy consequences” if he attacks Ukraine at their meeting this week, but he doesn’t expect results.
That’s according to this Reuters report citing a German government source:
Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Kyiv on Monday to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and to Moscow on Tuesday to meet Putin as part of diplomatic efforts to ease tensions. ...
“The chancellor will make clear that any attack on Ukraine will have heavy consequences ... and that one should not underestimate the unity between the European Union, United States and Britain,” the German government source said.Scholz would tell Putin the troop buildup could “only be interpreted as a threat”, the source told a briefing with journalists, adding: “I do not expect concrete results but these direct talks are important.” ...
A moratorium on any Ukrainian accession to NATO was not part of Scholz’s “tool kit”, the source said, adding that “what happens on the ground” would determine whether Russia was de-escalating.
“The current situation is per se already a destabilising situation that can get out of control,” the source said.
Updated
Ukrainian ambassador accuses Germany of 'hypocrisy' over no weapon supplies
Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, accused the country of “hypocrisy” over its refusal to supply defensive weapons to Kyiv.
“NO weapons for Ukraine‘s self-defence against Russian military invasion BUT 366 million € (!) (German) exports of dual-use goods to Russia in 2020 alone which can be destined to boost weapons production (Nr. 4 on export list). Irrespective of EU santions (sic)‼️”, Melnyk said on Twitter.
Last month, Germany’s defence secretary Christine Lambrecht said the country was supplying 5,000 helmets and medical training to Ukraine, but said: “The German government has very clearly agreed that we will not send any lethal weapons, or arms deliveries to conflict areas because we do not want to fuel these conflicts further”.
German Hypocrisy
— Andrij Melnyk (@MelnykAndrij) February 13, 2022
👉🏻NO weapons for Ukraine‘s self-defence against Russian military invasion
BUT
👉🏻 366 million € (!) 🇩🇪exports of dual-use goods to Russia in 2020 alone which can be destined to boost weapons production (Nr. 4 on export list). Irrespective of EU santions‼️ https://t.co/LsxfSw7wUI
Updated
Pope Francis led crowds in a silent prayer for Ukraine during his weekly Sunday blessing, appealing to politicians to seek peace.
“The news from Ukraine is very worrying,” the head of the Catholic Church told thousands of people in St Peter’s Square, Vatican City.
“I entrust every effort for peace to the intercession of the Virgin Mary and the consciences of responsible politicians.”
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UK defence secretary cuts short European holiday over crisis
The UK defence secretary Ben Wallace said he is returning from a family holiday overseas due to the Ukraine crisis.
“As events worsen the secretary of state has cut short a planned long weekend with his children for half term,” a senior defence source said.
Wallace was holidaying in Europe, PA reports, with his wife and children.
Wallace said on Twitter: “having returned from Moscow early on Saturday morning and because we are concerned about the worsening situation in Ukraine i have cancelled a planned long weekend abroad with my family and will be returning.”
It marks a departure from then-foreign secretary Dominic Raab’s decision to stay on his family jaunt in Crete as the Taliban seized Afghanistan – a call many believe later led to Raab’s sacking.
having returned from Moscow early on Saturday morning and because we are concerned about the worsening situation in Ukraine i have cancelled a planned long weekend abroad with my family and will be returning.
— Rt. Hon Ben Wallace MP (@BWallaceMP) February 13, 2022
Updated
Ukrainian ambassador: UK's reference to Nazi appeasement unhelpful
Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, said UK defence secretary’s Ben Wallace’s comparison of diplomatic efforts with Russia to the Nazi appeasement of the 1930s was unhelpful.
“It’s not the best time for us to offend our partners in the world, reminding them of this act which not brought peace but the opposite – it brought war,” Prystaiko told BBC Radio 4.
Wallace told the Sunday Times there is a “whiff of Munich in the air” – seeming to refer to the 1930s appeasement of Nazi Germany, specifically the 1938 Chamberlain-Hitler brokered deal letting Germany annex the Sudetenland but ultimately failing to prevent the second world war.
The UK’s Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis attempted to defend the comments on the broadcasting round this morning.
Updated
Here’s a list of many of the countries urging their citizens to leave Ukraine, avoid travel or consider whether they need to remain:
- The US – leave the country.
- The UK – leave the country.
- Germany – leave the country.
- Australia – leave the country.
- Ireland – leave the country.
- Italy – leave the country.
- Sweden – leave the country.
- Jordan – leave the country.
- The Netherlands – leave the country.
- Kuwait – leave the country.
- Iraq – leave the country.
- Cyprus – leave the country.
- Finland – leave the country.
- Saudi Arabia – avoid travel to Ukraine and contact embassy to facilitate immediate departure.
- UAE – avoid travel to Ukraine.
- Turkey – avoid travel to Ukraine.
- Slovakia – avoid travel to Ukraine.
- Poland – avoid non-essential travel to Ukraine.
- Greece – keep in touch with the Kyiv embassy.
- Lithuania – assess whether continued presence is necessary.
- China – “pay close attention” but not told to leave.
Updated
Ukrainians in the UK are plagued by anxiety and fear for relatives amid talk of an imminent Russian invasion, my colleague Shanti Das reports.
Oksana Riwnyj remembers life under Soviet rule. “When I was at university, I wasn’t allowed to speak up and say what I think. We couldn’t go to church or celebrate Christmas. It was very tough, especially for the young people,” the 58-year-old primary schoolteacher said.
Now, the news of Russia assembling troops on the Ukrainian border triggers memories that bring her to tears. “I never thought something like this could happen. It’s too horrible to even think about,” she said.
Riwnyj is one of about 70,000 Ukrainians living in the UK who are watching anxiously to see what will unfold over the coming days.
The mother-of-two lived for the first two decades of her life in western Ukraine, then part of the Soviet Union, which was toppled in 1991.
She moved to the UK after meeting her husband, Stefan, a gas engineer, 25 years ago, and has a happy life in London, where – as a teacher at St Mary’s Ukrainian Saturday school – she is at the heart of the expatriate community.
But while safe on UK soil, as the crisis in her home country intensifies, she is struggling to carry on with life as normal.
“I’m trying to go about daily life but it’s a very stressful and worrying situation,” Riwnyj said. “I can’t sleep because all my family are over there.”
Helplessness and fear are the feelings that emerge from UK-based Ukrainians in this Observer report. Read the full story below:
Updated
US staff at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the world’s largest regional security organisation, began leaving by car from the rebel-held city of Donetsk in east Ukraine on Sunday, Reuters reports.
The OSCE conducts civilian monitoring operations in the self-proclaimed separatist republics – such as Donetsk and Luhansk – where war since 2014 has killed 14,000 people. The OSCE has not commented on the US staff withdrawals.
A 4 February OSCE report on the conflict in eastern Ukraine found, in 2021, there were 93,902 ceasefire violations, 91 civilian casualties (including 16 fatalities), 851 freedom of movement restrictions and 1,133 explosions attributable to weaponry fire.
Denmark’s OSCE staff also left, Reuters reports.
Updated
Ukraine sees no point closing airspace - adviser to president's chief of staff says
Ukraine sees no point in closing its airspace amid Russian tensions and the build-up of 130,000 troops on the border, an adviser to Ukrainian president’s chief of staff said on Sunday.
“The most important point is that Ukraine itself sees no point in closing the sky. This is nonsense. And, in my opinion, it somewhat resembles a kind of partial blockade,” Mykhailo Podolyak told Reuters.
It comes after Dutch airliner KLM said on Saturday it would immediately stop flights to Ukraine. (196 Dutch people died when 298 passengers were killed over eastern Ukraine, in 2014, after a Malaysia Airlines flight was shot down.)
German airliner Lufthansa said on Sunday no decision has been taken but a suspension is being examined.
Updated
As geopolitical headwinds continue to swirl around Ukraine, my colleague Shaun Walker in Kyiv has this dispatch on how life is humming along mostly as normal.
As news of the latest grim White House briefing on Ukraine broke late on Friday evening in Kyiv, the bars and restaurants were as full as on any other Friday night, the atmosphere remained jovial, and anyone without access to a Twitter feed would have struggled to divine any sense of foreboding.
While US officials and the Washington journalists briefed by them prophesied a “horrific, bloody” campaign to be launched against Ukraine imminently, nobody except journalists was paying much attention to what, to many in Kyiv, seems like just the latest in a line of apocalyptic briefings ...
Of course, underneath the surface calm, many Ukrainians are making contingency plans, some to fight off an invasion, others to flee for safer places. It is not possible to buy an electricity generator in the city, and many discuss what they would do if the worst does happen ...
But for many people here, the idea of a full-fledged invasion remains something outlandish and implausible. Many Ukrainians, up to and including the president, say they are well aware of the risk Russia poses but do not quite believe the American insistence that the threat is imminent.
“I’m beginning to get pretty annoyed with this,” said one former Ukrainian MP, who asked not to be named. “I am very pro-western, but the way this invasion news is coming out reminds me of [unverified rumours on] Russian Telegram channels, about unnamed sources and backroom information.
Read the full story here.
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The UK’s Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis said the world has to be “cognizant of the reality that [Russia] could move very quickly” to invade Ukraine if it desires, as 130,000 troops sit on the borders.
Lewis reiterated the UK’s focus on a “diplomatic solution” opposed to any possible Nato miliatry action.
He said the UK embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, which is encouraging British citizens to leave, is assisting people leave the country. “There is a threat … therefore safest thing to do is leave now,” he said.
Lewis also had a second go at explaining UK defence secretary Ben Wallace’s statement that there is a “whiff of Munich in the air”, after his comments on Sky News.
Lewis told the BBC’s Sunday Morning: “If you look back to that period of time [late-1930s], there was a lot of diplomatic engagement. There was an optimism at the time actually, that there may be a diplomatic way through that eventually proved not to be the case.”
Lewis said Wallace was drawing parallels to the frustrations of diplomacy between western allies and Russia today.
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Labour’s shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper has called for a “very strong and united international response” to potential Russian belligerence.
“We shouldn’t underestimate the importance of the kind of economic and financial sanctions that could be imposed,” Cooper told the BBC’s Sunday Morning, reiterating Labour’s commitment to Nato.
The sanctions could cover the financial system, trade, energy and more.
But Cooper urged the Conservative government to go further with potential sanctions, for instance looking into “golden visas” and other measures against Russia, but appeared to rule out British ground troops in Ukraine. (The UK has provided military armaments and training to Ukrainian forces.)
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US warns Russia it will face 'crippling' sanctions and greater Nato build-up
The US State Department’s Derek Chollet has elabroated on what president Joe Biden meant by the “swifts and severe costs” he threatened if an invasion occurs.
Chollet, on the BBC’s Sunday Morning, said the response would come in two main ways:
- Considerable and “crippling” economic sanctions on Russia – bringing economic hardship.
- Bolster and build up military capacity on Nato’s eastern borders – diplomatically isolating and providing a strategic military setback for Russia.
Speaking about the nature of a potential Russian invasion, Chollet said:
Whatever form it takes [airstrikes, ground incursion, etc.] if it is as large as we fear it will be, the circumstances will be profound for Ukraine and quite dangerous.
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UK defense secretary: 'Whiff of Munich in the air'
The UK’s Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis tried to clarify comments from defense secretary Ben Wallace in today’s Sunday Times, that there is a “whiff of Munich in the air”, on Sky News this morning.
Lewis told Sky: “In the run up to world war two there was lots of diplomatic work, people thought that was progressive but of course it turned out not to be.”
I think what the defence secretary quite rightly was doing is drawing the comparison and being clear there’s a lot of diplomatic work going on … the Russian state is saying that it is not planning to invade but when you have 100,000, now 130,000, we estimate, troops on the border that would indicate there’s a possibility of an incursion.
It’s that balance and that decision and that interpretation of the difference of what we hope will be a diplomatic outcome but a realistic possibility that something much more tragic could occur.
Lewis will also appear on BBC’s Sunday Morning shortly.
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Russia is plotting a “false flag” operation to provoke war with Ukraine, the Telegraph reports.
While Russia’s comments it has no plans to invade could be taken in good faith, a Whitehall source said, the country is “hoping to create the circumstances where they say they are responding to Ukrainian or Western aggression”.
It follows US intelligence about a Russian “false flag” operation discussed on Thursday at the White House.
Russia has insisted invasion fears are western “hysteria” – and accused the US of propaganda to seek cover for a Ukrainian attack on Russian-backed separatists in the country’s east.
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What does Putin want?
My colleague Simon Tisdall has this helpful explainer on Russia’s potential motives.
Why is Russia threatening to invade Ukraine?
Russian spokespeople daily deny any intention to invade. So, too, did Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, when he met the French leader, Emmanuel Macron, last week, and when he spoke to US president Joe Biden on the phone. There are two problems with this. First, given Putin’s Johnsonian relationship with truth, few western governments believe the denials. Second, Putin has not explained why, if his intentions are peaceful, more than half of Russia’s armed forces, including 130,000 troops, are massed on Ukraine’s borders. It could all be a bluff. But who would bet the house on that?
So what drives Putin?
There are numerous theories. Putin is said to want to rebuild a Russian sphere of influence in eastern Europe, principally embracing former Soviet republics such as now independent Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine. He has frequently bemoaned their “loss” after the Soviet Union collapsed. Putin may also hope to demonstrate to the west (and Russians) that the country is still a superpower, even though by most measures (nuclear weapon stockpiles and geography apart) it is a failing medium-sized power.
Why Ukraine?
Putin fears strategically important Ukraine, commanding Russia’s south-western flank, is assimilating into the west. He objects to its growing closeness to Nato. He also opposes Kyiv’s developing links with the EU. Worse still, from his point of view, Ukraine is a democracy, with free speech and free media, which freely elects its leaders. In practice, Russians enjoy no such freedoms – if they followed Ukraine’s example, Putin would not last long. More broadly, Putin is a nostalgic revisionist who regards Ukraine as an integral part of historical Russia and its loss as a symbol of Russia’s cold war defeat.
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Biden warns Putin: you’ll pay a heavy cost if you attack Ukraine
US president Joe Biden on Saturday night warned Russian president Vladimir Putin that the US would “impose swift and severe costs on Russia” if his forces invaded Ukraine.
In a phone call that lasted more than an hour, the US president said an invasion would “produce widespread human suffering and diminish Russia’s standing”.
According to a White House readout, Biden stressed “while the United States remains prepared to engage in diplomacy, in full coordination with our Allies and partners, we are equally prepared for other scenarios.”
Meanwhile, the UK defence secretary Ben Wallace said there is a “whiff of Munich in the air” – seeming to refer to appeasement, specifically the 1938 Chamberlain-Hitler brokered deal letting Germany annex the Sudetenland but ultimately failing to prevent the Second World War in 1939.
“It may be that [Putin] just switches off his tanks and we all go home but there is a whiff of Munich in the air from some in the West,” Wallace told the Sunday Times, referring to a sense of frustration that British diplomatic efforts have not swayed Russia’s apparent intent.
Wallace added an invasion is “highly likely” and could now come at any time.
A UK diplomatic source also told the Times: “We obviously have a close intelligence-sharing relationship with the US and agree with them on the seriousness of the situation and risks of Russian military action. We believe the Kremlin have made no final decision over whether to invade Ukraine but the outlook does look bleak.”
Good morning, this is Jem Bartholomew in London bringing you the latest developments on the Ukraine crisis today. Do get in touch with tips and thoughts:
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