Prime Minister Scott Morrison believes conflict between Russia and Ukraine is “inevitable”. Boris Johnson says Europe is on the brink of its biggest war since 1945. Joe Biden believes the attack could come within days.
Even if that invasion doesn’t ever materialise, it’s no coincidence that as Russian aggression on the Ukrainian border has escalated, so has the Morrison government’s hairy-chested rhetoric on national security. Despite confirming Australia won’t be sending troops, the government has used the crisis as an opportunity to convince voters that a Labor government won’t keep them safe in a volatile world.
While the conflict is a long way from Australian shores, and hardly at the forefront of voters’ minds, it gives the government a springboard for a khaki election and an excuse to talk tough on the other big scary foreign power: China.
Everything is about China
Like most national security and foreign policy issues, there’s pretty much bipartisan support in Parliament for Ukrainian sovereignty in the face of a potential invasion. It’s forced the government to choose more roundabout ways to turn the crisis into an attack.
During question time last week, Morrison repeatedly returned to Beijing’s refusal to condemn Russia’s military build-up. And because Labor is apparently China’s preferred party of government, based on a spurious editorial in the Global Times, the opposition simply can’t be trusted on the Ukraine question.
“My government will never be the preferred partner of a foreign government that has chosen to intimidate this country and has sought to threaten this country,” Morrison said.
“They will not find a fellow traveller when it comes to threats and coercion against Australia in my government. I will never be their candidate.”
Beyond China’s tacit endorsement of Russia’s actions, the situation in Eastern Europe seems far removed from Australia’s region. But foreign policy experts believe a Russian invasion, even the current climate of brinkmanship, could lead to a more assertive China.
And the government doesn’t need to point to any real connection between China and Russia, just use the two foreign powers as a means of gesturing vaguely at the dangerous nature of the world. Last week’s incident, where a Chinese naval vessel aimed a laser at an RAAF surveillance plane within Australia’s exclusive economic zone, was another such opportunity.
While Morrison said there was no connection between the incident and anything happening in Europe, it gave him another opportunity to condemn it as an “act of intimidation”, and to remind journalists that Australians should be nervous about the prospect of a Labor government cutting defence and national security spending. Despite concern from the spies, the government’s politicising of national security doesn’t show much sign of abating.
A toxic khaki election
A potential Russian invasion would give the government even freer rein to run a khaki election campaign, framed around Labor’s alleged weakness on national security and, in particular, amping up the “China threat” narrative.
It would involve more hit pieces based on old speeches, more attacking the opposition for their alleged “complicity” with China. Above all, the national security focus could lead to a very toxic election campaign for Chinese Australians, who’ve already faced hostility as the bilateral relationship has deteriorated under the Morrison government.
University of Sydney professor Tim Soutphommasane, a former race discrimination commissioner, says the rhetoric around national security has already been concerning, and could damage our democratic institutions.
“Let’s hope that we don’t see an indulgence of red-baiting that morphs into a form of race politics,” he said.
“Many Chinese Australians, and indeed Asian Australians, understand all too well how racism works. They know that political appeals that flirt with race can create division and suspicion.”
Osmond Chiu, a research fellow at progressive think tank Per Capita, said trying to use national security as a wedge for Labor could have adverse impacts on Chinese Australians, particularly those trying to break into politics. Labor’s candidates for the Sydney seats of Reid and Banks, Sally Sitou and Zhi Soon, respectively, both have Chinese heritage.
But it’s in seats like these where the government’s whole strategy could unravel. Traditionally, the Chinese Australian community has provided plenty of support to the Coalition. But the intensity of the anti-China rhetoric could harm the government in suburban seats like Reid, Banks, Chisholm and Bennelong, which have high Chinese-Australian populations.
“While it might be red meat for the conservative base, it might also backfire for the Liberals, considering the Chinese communities have been seen as a bedrock,” Chiu said.
Through the last week, Labor has attacked the government’s national security scare campaign as desperate politics. Now, a desperate attempt to win Chinese-Australian voters might be the only thing that pulls the government back.
