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Australia’s prime minister Scott Morrison has warned Russia the world will be moving together to counteract any violence it inflicts on Ukraine.
The Australian Associated Press reports the prime minister told reporters in Melbourne on Sunday:
It is unacceptable because it is unwarranted, it’s unprovoked in terms of the threats of terrible violence that Russia is imposing on Ukraine.
He said while there has never been any contemplation of Australian troops being deployed to eastern Europe, the government has been working with its allies to directly support Ukraine, whether it be in cyberspace or things of that nature.
The world will be moving together to seek to counteract what would be a terrible act of violence.
Should they follow through on their acts of violence against Ukraine, we will follow through with sanctions together and in partnership with all of our other allies and partners.”
US President Joe Biden’s confidence about Russian military action came from US intel about an order given to Russian subordinates to proceed with a full-scale attack, according to senior administration officials.
The Washington Post writes:
US intelligence that provided Biden with the confidence to make the assertion came from an order given to Russian subordinates to proceed with a full-scale attack, according to several people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. The United States obtained intelligence on the order as Russian military and security officials were taking steps to implement it, and did so very recently, the people said.”
Some European allies have questioned the United States’ conviction that Moscow will launch an attack, saying that they have not seen direct evidence suggesting Putin has committed to hostilities.
Zelenskiy continues to assert Ukraine will not respond to any provocations from Russia after speaking with reporters from the Munich security conference.
We’re not panicking. We’re very consistent that we are not responding to any provocations.
We’ve been in this tension for many many years now. We do not think we need to panic.
While the Ukrainian president acknowledged that the risks posed by the build-up of Russian forces encircling his country was “indeed very high”, he asserted it would be a “very big risk if we respond [to provocation].”
We need to preserve our stability. We need to keep calm and be adults. In these terms, the Ukraine army is more adult than others.
We are not really living in delusion. We understand what can happen tomorrow ... just putting ourselves in coffins and waiting for foreign soldiers to come in is not something we are prepared to do.”
Zelenskiy has also asked Nato partners to clarify a timeline on which Ukraine could join the military alliance.
Ukraine needs security guarantees.
We are smart people, we are not narrow minded. We understand there are lots of different risks because of Nato, there is no consensus around other allies, everyone is saying there is some distance that we need to go between Ukraine and Nato that we need to walk.
All we are saying is tell us how much time does it take to complete this distance?”
Sanctions on Russia should be made public before possible invasion: Zelenskiy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said that sanctions on Russia should be made public before and not after a possible invasion of Ukraine occurs.
In an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, he said:
Even the question of just making it public, preventably, just a list of sanctions for them, for us and to know what will happen if they start the war, even that question does not have the support.
We don’t need your sanctions after the bombardment will happen and after our country will be fired at or after we will have no borders, or after we will have no economy or part of our countries will be occupied... why would we need those sanctions then?”
Updated
Russia's allegations of Ukrainian attack have 'no grounds', Borrell says
Josep Borrell, high representative on behalf of the EU, says there are “no grounds for allegations” coming from the Russian-backed Donetsk and Luhansk regions of a possible Ukrainian attack.
The EU council also said it is witnessing an “intensification of information manipulation” efforts to support such objectives.
The EU sees no grounds for allegations coming from the non-governmental controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of a possible Ukrainian attack.
The EU urges Russia to engage in meaningful dialogue, diplomacy, show restraint and de-escalate.”
The EU condemns the use of heavy weaponry & indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas.
— Josep Borrell Fontelles (@JosepBorrellF) February 19, 2022
No grounds for allegations coming from the non-governmental controlled areas of Donetsk &Luhansk regions of a possible Ukrainian attack.
We urge Russia to de-escalatehttps://t.co/y4Kd2gO4yy
EU council commends Ukraine's 'restraint in the face of continued provocations'
The European council has called upon Russia to de-escalate and withdraw military forces, while commending Ukraine’s “posture of restraint in the face of continued provocations and efforts at destabilisation”.
In a statement, Josep Borrell, high representative on behalf of the EU, said:
Russia’s massive build-up of armed forces in and around Ukraine remains of grave concern.
The EU urges Russia to de-escalate by a substantial withdrawal of military forces from the proximity of Ukraine’s borders.
Borrell writes the escalation is now “compounded by the increase in ceasefire violations” in eastern Ukraine in recent days. The EU condemns the use of heavy weaponry and indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas, which constitute a clear violation of the Minsk agreements and international humanitarian law.
We commend Ukraine’s posture of restraint in the face of continued provocations and efforts at destabilisation.
The EU is extremely concerned that staged events, as noted recently, could be used as a pretext for possible military escalation.
Updated
Hostilities in eastern Ukraine have disrupted water services to more than 1 million people in the region, according to the international committee of the Red Cross.
The committee called on all sides to spare infrastructure that is essential for the survival of communities. A statement reads:
The recent intensification of the fighting in eastern Ukraine has again put certain key essential services at risk of coming to a full stop.
In the last two days, at least two major pumping stations in the Donetsk region serving more than 1 million people on either side of the line of contact with water, including hospitals and other crucial services, were “rendered inoperable by the hostilities”, the ICRC said.
Civilian infrastructure providing essential services are protected under International Humanitarian Law, Florence Gillette, the ICRC’s head of delegation in Ukraine, added.
Sir Richard Branson has come out in support of Ukraine, denouncing Russia’s “unacceptable aggression” and urging the world to “stand up for Ukraine’s sovereignty”.
The British billionaire and Virgin founder writes in a recent blog post:
The world must support Ukraine. We must not abandon a country that voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons in return for peace, and is now on the verge of being invaded by the very country that persuaded it to do so.”
Hello it’s Samantha Lock with you as my colleague Lauren Gambino signs off.
US state department spokesperson Ned Price says more evidence of Russian disinformation is being used for false-flag operations aimed at discrediting the Ukrainian government.
“We are seeing more evidence of Russian disinformation being used as pretext for a potential Russian attack on Ukraine. Today, locals in Donetsk reported calm despite Russian claims of a car bomb,” Price said.
We are seeing more evidence of Russian disinformation being used as pretext for a potential Russian attack on Ukraine. Today, locals in Donetsk reported calm despite Russian claims of a car bomb. https://t.co/TpxzqDUJAo
— Ned Price (@StateDeptSpox) February 19, 2022
Evening summary
From Munich to Moscow, it’s been a turbulent day of warnings and preparations, statements and speeches. Here’s what’s happened this evening.
- British foreign minister Liz Truss told Munich security conference on Saturday that Ukraine could face the “worst-case scenario” of a Russian invasion as soon as next week, and Europe faced one of its most perilous security situations since the early 20th century.
- Speaking in Munich, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Vladimir Putin to meet with him to find a resolution to the conflict. “I don’t know what the president of the Russian Federation wants, so I am proposing a meeting,” he said.
- Nato has relocated staff from Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, to Lviv and Brussels, according to multiple reports. It follows decisions by several countries to move their embassy operations out of Kyiv amid rising tensions with Russia.
- Joe Biden will convene the national security council on Sunday to discuss the evolving situation in Ukraine, the White House announced on Saturday.
- A joint statement from the foreign ministers of the G7 nations urged diplomacy but warned it would “judge Russia by its deeds”.
- A Reuters journalist reported hearing explosions overnight in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
- Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, said it was unhelpful to try to predict what Russia might do. She said it remained unclear whether Putin had yet made a decision about Ukraine.
- Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday he had an “urgent” phone call with French president Emmanuel Macron to discuss the potential for immediate “de-escalation & political diplomatic settlement” in eastern Ukraine.
- Observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on Saturday reported more than 1,500 ceasefire violations in east Ukraine in a single day, the highest number recorded this year.
That’s all from me, Lauren Gambino. Over to my colleagues. Thanks for reading.
Updated
Biden to convene national security council on Sunday to discuss Ukraine
Joe Biden will convene a meeting of the national security council on Sunday to discuss the situation in Ukraine, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement on Saturday evening.
The US president received regular updates from his national security team about events on the ground in Ukraine, amid mounting reports of ceasefire violations on Saturday.
His security team “reaffirmed that Russia could launch an attack against Ukraine at any time,” Psaki said.
Biden maintained a relatively low public profile on Saturday, while Kamala Harris and Anthony Blinken represented the US in Munich. He left the White House to have lunch with his granddaughters in Washington and later to attend mass.
Updated
Shaun Walker files this moving report from Stanytsia Luhanska, once a suburb of the city Luhansk, but since the war, has been separated from it by a frontline.
Raisa Malashenko was trundling her rusty bicycle, laden with bags of food, through the centre of Stanytsia Luhanska on Saturday afternoon. The 81-year-old did not flinch as booms of artillery sounded in the distance.
Her five children have all left this frontline town, some for Russia and others for safer parts of Ukraine. “It’s just me and my cow now,” she said mournfully.
Like many older people in eastern Ukraine, Malashenko said she missed the Soviet period, and said she blamed the Ukrainian army and Kyiv’s western backers for the current escalation. But she also said she was terrified of a Russian invasion.
“God forbid the Russians come, and then with them their Cossacks and Chechen fighters will come. Imagine what a hell it will be then,” she said, a tear glistening in one of her eyes.
Walker was among a group of journalists who joined the Ukrainian military on a visit to the town. Their goal was to help dispel what Ukraine has said is a false Russian narrative that the Ukrainian army has been behind the recent uptick in violence.
Ukrainian soldier playing chess on his phone, during a helicopter ride to a spot close to the front lines in the east of the country today. pic.twitter.com/93OpAKxhDD
— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) February 19, 2022
There they observed rubble still scattered on the floor of the Fairy Tale kindergarten, which was hit by fire on Thursday, injuring two people.
Multiple explosions could be heard overnight in the centre of the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, according to a Reuters journalist in the area.
The origin of the explosions was not clear, the agency said. There was no immediate comment from separatist authorities or from Kyiv.
Ukraine’s interior minister was forced to dive for cover during a visit to the frontline of the eight-year conflict with pro-Russian separatists on Saturday.
Reporters accompanying the minister, Denys Monastyrsky, said the area came under “surprise mortar barrage” during the visit to meet with troops and inspect the trenches near Novoluganske, in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
Le ministre de l’Intérieur ukrainien sous les tirs de mortiers. Couché à terre et protégé par ses gardes du corps. Nous y étions. Notre reportage ce soir dans le journal de 20h.@stef_guillemot
— Maryse Burgot (@MaryseBurgot) February 19, 2022
@YanKadouch@infofrance2 pic.twitter.com/U75IJ2gBrJ
According to AFP, Monastyrsky, his entourage and reporters scrambled for cover as several mortar shells landed in nearby fields. No one was hurt and Monastyrsky later said he did not believe he had been targeted.
The tour was intended to underscore for journalists the escalating danger along the frontline. Their experience left little doubt.
Updated
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday he had an “urgent” phone call with French president Emmanuel Macron to discuss the potential for immediate “de-escalation & political diplomatic settlement” in eastern Ukraine.
International observers and the Ukrainian government have reported a sharp rise in ceasefire violations by Russia-backed separatists as the US and UK warn that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent.
In a tweet, Zelenskiy said he informed Macron of the “aggravation on the frontline, our losses, the shelling.”
Had an urgent conversation with President @EmmanuelMacron. Informed about the aggravation on the frontline, our losses, the shelling of 🇺🇦 politicians & international journalists. Discussed the need and possible ways of immediate de-escalation & political-diplomatic settlement.
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 19, 2022
Updated
G7 foreign ministers: ‘We will judge Russia by its deeds’
The G7 foreign ministers on Saturday said they remain “gravely concerned” about the build up of Russian forces along its border with Ukraine.
The statement, signed by the foreign ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US and the High Representative of the EU, urged diplomacy and de-escalation, but warned: “We will judge Russia by its deeds.”
“Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified massing of military forces, the largest deployment on the European continent since the end of the Cold War is a challenge to global security and the international order,” the statement said.
It continued: “While we are ready to explore diplomatic solutions to address legitimate security concerns, Russia should be in no doubt that any further military aggression against Ukraine will have massive consequences, including financial and economic sanctions on a wide array of sectoral and individual targets that would impose severe and unprecedented costs on the Russian economy.”
Updated
Observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on Saturday reported more than 1,500 ceasefire violations in east Ukraine in a single day, the highest number recorded this year.
The report covered attacks on Friday, in which monitors registered 975 breaches in Luhansk and 591 in neighbouring Donetsk, two regions partly controlled by the pro-Russian separatists. The observers also said it had logged 860 explosions in Luhansk and 553 in Donetsk.
The OSCE confirmed one civilian was injured in the government-controlled area of Donetsk.
The eight-year conflict has seen a sharp uptick in violence over the last week, as the west fears Russia is creating false pretexts for an attack on Ukraine while amassing troops on the Ukrainian border.
The Ukrainian military said on Saturday two soldiers were killed and four wounded in shelling by pro-Russian separatists, while Russia opened a criminal investigation into reports that Ukrainian shells exploded in Russia’s border region of Rostov, charges Kyiv has flatly denied.
Updated
During a frenetic day of speech-making and behind-the-scenes negotiating in Munich, US secretary of state Antony Blinken sat for an interview with Dozhd TV, an independent Russian TV channel, to denounce the Kremlin’s claims that it is Ukraine, not Russia, acting as the aggressor.
“Unfortunately what we’re seeing is playing out exactly as I said a few days ago at the United Nations security council,” Blinken told Ekaterina Kotrikadze of Dozhd TV. “There is the fabrication of provocations that would be then used as a justification for Russian military intervention in the Donbas and in Ukraine more broadly.”
Blinken called claims by Moscow of a “genocide” in Donbas “absolutely wrong and frankly offensive”. He said Ukraine had eight years to try to recapture Donbas and said it “defies any logic” to accuse it of trying to do that now with 150,000 Russian troops massed at the border.
Blinken said he is still prepared to meet his Russian counterpart, foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, next week in Europe, assuming that “Russia does not invade Ukraine in the meantime”.
Asked if there was anything the US could offer that would de-escalate tensions, Blinken said there were many areas where the two world powers could work together to “improve everyone’s security”.
“But doing that as well with a gun pointed to Ukraine’s head – 150,000 Russian forces to the north, to the east, to the south – it’s very difficult to make progress in that environment,” he said.
Questioning the quality of information Putin was receiving, Blinken said public sentiment in Ukraine had shifted sharply away from Russia since it invaded Crimea in 2014. “If [Putin] believes that Russian forces would be accepted with open arms in Ukraine, I think he’s profoundly wrong,” Blinken said.
Citing “concerns and confusion” within Russia about the US’s recent assessments, Kotrikadze, asked Blinken to describe the “level” of intelligence the country receives. “All I can tell you is this,” he replied. “We’re very confident in the information that we have.”
Updated
Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov on Saturday thanked Canada’s military for sending rifles, machine guns and surveillance equipment.
Weapons for @ArmedForcesUkr from our close 🇨🇦 friends ✅ We received military aid in the form of rifles,machine guns with optical sights,night vision&surveillance devices&military equipment.Thank you for this important & timely decision! @AnitaAnandMP special thank to You 🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/JgaK4iPqId
— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) February 19, 2022
“Thank you for this important & timely decision,” Reznikov wrote on Twitter.
Updated
Moscow correspondent Andrew Roth is on the ground near the Russian border with Ukraine, where tents have been set up to house evacuees from the Donbas.
“If it was up to me, I would have stayed.” Tent camp in Russia on border with Ukraine where women and children are evacuated. Many said they disagreed with evacuation orders despite tense situation. Chaotic situation, left here and no one knows where they’re being taken next. pic.twitter.com/RsqdQPnS6k
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) February 19, 2022
Lots of police and military activity in Rostov region as evacuations ongoing, likely a pretext for Russian intervention. Convoy of about 20 buses heading from the Ukraine border toward Taganrog just now. pic.twitter.com/vdwP9FwwTz
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) February 19, 2022
Reuters: Nato relocates Ukraine staff from capital for safety reasons
Nato is relocating staff based in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, to Lviv in the west of the country and to Brussels for safety reasons, according to Reuters, citing a Nato official. The decision was first reported by Norwegian daily VG.
“The safety of our personnel is paramount, so staff have been relocated to Lviv and Brussels. The Nato offices in Ukraine remain operational,” the official to Reuters, without providing an estimate of the people and positions that had been moved.
This follows decisions by the US and the UK to relocate their Ukraine embassy operations from Kyiv to Lviv. Several other nations have moved diplomats and services out of the capital as well.
Updated
The World Bank Group is prepared to quickly disburse up to $350m to Ukraine, action that will be considered by the group’s board before the end of March, according to a statement from the organisation on Saturday.
According to a readout of a meeting between the World Bank president, David Malpass, and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Malpass said the group will continue to support the Ukrainian people and economy for its “short and long-term financing needs”.
Pleased to meet with President @ZelenskyyUa at @MunSecConf & reaffirm @WorldBank Group support for the people of Ukraine.
— David Malpass (@DavidMalpassWBG) February 19, 2022
We discussed the WBG’s Ukraine program in the face of immense costs to Ukraine, Russia & the Black Sea region.
Readout: https://t.co/36ufY1TCks
The statement said the $350m disbursement “would be followed by further budget support and additional reforms, including in the energy and climate areas.”
Malpass and Zelenskiy also discussed the World Bank’s “robust pipeline of planned projects for Ukraine, including energy efficiency, infrastructure, railways, and strengthening the economy and job opportunities in eastern Ukraine,” it said.
Updated
Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, warned that it remained unclear whether Vladimir Putin had yet made a decision about Ukraine, tamping down Washington’s urgent warnings of an imminent invasion.
“We do not know yet if an attack has been decided on,” she told reporters on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, according to AFP. She added that the “threat against Ukraine is very real”.
On Friday, Joe Biden said he was “convinced” that Putin had “made the decision” to attack Ukraine.
Pressed on whether Germany shared the US assessment, Baerbock replied: “In crisis situations, the most inappropriate thing to do is to somehow guess or assume.”
“My urgent appeal to all is that we look closely at the facts on the ground,” she continued, warning against the risk of “targeted disinformation”.
According to the news agency, Baerbock made her remarks after hosting a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, which has been dominated by the Ukraine crisis this year. She said the nations were “united” and prepared to respond in the event Russia invades Ukraine.
To Putin, she said: “Pull your troops back, avoid damage to Russia and Ukraine and let us talk.”
Updated
China has seized on the crisis in Ukraine to criticise Nato, which last year branded Beijing as a “systemic challenge”.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said of Nato’s expansion: “If Nato keeps expanding eastward, is it conducive to maintaining peace and stability in Europe?”
He also called on Nato to “adapt”. “Since the cold war is long gone, Nato, a product of the cold war, needs to adapt itself to the changing circumstances,” he said.
At the same time, Wang said “all countries’ sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity should be respected and safeguarded”, and that “Ukraine is no exception to the principle”. He also urged a return to the Minsk II agreement “as quickly as possible”.
Wang’s comment did not go down well with Nato.
“[F]or the first time, we now see Beijing joining Moscow in calling on Nato to stop admitting new members,” said Nato’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg. “It is an attempt to control the fate of free nations. To rewrite the international rulebook. And impose their own authoritarian models of governance.”
But perhaps there’s another reason why Beijing is keen to talk about Nato, analysts say.
Last year, Nato leaders declared China presents a security risk at their annual summit in Brussels. It was the first time the traditionally Russia-focused military alliance had asserted the need to respond to Beijing’s growing prowess. Beijing was furious.
Read Vincent’s analysis for a deeper look at the complicated relationship between China and Nato.
Updated
Amid the grim assessments and growing fears of an imminent Russian invasion that have consumed the security conference in Munich, the Ukrainian president offered an unexpected moment of levity.
Tapping his headset, Volodymyr Zelenskiy joked that it might have been hacked by Russia.
“I think, cyberattack,” he said with a wry smile, before explaining that the translation had stopped working.
As he waited for a replacement, he deadpanned: “See, Russia’s not here, but they’re here.”
The audience roared with laughter.
Updated
Speaking on a panel at the security conference in Munich, Truss also warned that the “global security architecture that we have at the moment isn’t sufficient to deal with the new challenges we face”.
She said there must be more advancements in the areas of space and new technology, such as hypersonic weapons. Looking ahead, she said it was imperative to make the current system of collective security more global.
“Any future arms control needs to also include China,” Truss said. “We can’t be in a situation where only one part of the world that is constrained and the rest isn’t.”
“Euro-Atlantic security is not divisible from Indo-Pacific security,” she added, pointing to the joint statement from Putin and Xi.
Updated
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy challenged the west to explain why it had not done more to protect Ukraine, not just now that the country was under the threat of invasion by Russia, but during the onslaught over the past eight years. Describing the policy as one of appeasement, he called for world leaders to meet to create a new security architecture.
He also called for Nato to give an indication of how long it would take for Ukraine to be given membership, and in the meantime for the country to be given security guarantees.
Flying to Munich from Kyiv with America warning a Russian attack on his capital was imminent, Zelenskiy said he had left his country in good hands with its soldiers and people. “I had my breakfast in Ukraine and I will have my dinner in Ukraine,” he reassured the audience.
He used much of his 20-minute address to challenge the west about what had happened to its promise of Nato membership, and asked what message the west had for the two soldiers killed on the frontline on Saturday.
He said he did not know what Vladimir Putin wanted, which was why he proposed a meeting, saying he was willing to discuss the Minsk agreements with him.
“We do not need your sanctions after our country has been bombarded and we have lost our borders.”
He added that if Russia pulled back its troops there would be no sanctions, but then said he feared “if the west cannot even disclose what will happen to whom when the war starts then I doubt it will be triggered at all after it happens”.
He insisted his army was keeping calm, resilient and adult in the face of cynical Russian attacks on the territory it controls, he nevertheless acknowledged that the risks were high and one provocative shell fire could yet spark war. He said his country could not secure stability if there were constant predictions of war the next day.
“Ukraine is longing for peace. Europe is longing for peace. The world is saying it does not want any war and Russia is claiming it does want to intervene. Someone here is lying.”
He said: “We are told that the doors of Nato are open but for the moment we are told that it is not possible. Are these doors really open? You have an open door but strangers do not seem to be allowed.
“Open doors are good, but we need answers,” he said. “If you don’t want to see us there, be honest about it. All these questions require answers.”
Recalling the recent attacks on a kindergarten in eastern Ukraine, he said the “kids were not turning to Nato, they were going to their classrooms”.
He opened by asking: “Has our world completely forgotten the mistakes of the 20th century and where does the appeasement policy usually lead to? These are horrific history lessons. How did we get to this point in the 21st century where the war is being waged and where people are dying how did we end up in the biggest security crisis since the end of the cold war?”
He added: “The security architecture of our world is brittle, obsolete and the rules that were agreed dozens of years ago are no longer working. The security system is slow and failing us time and time again.”
He blamed “egotism, arrogance and irresponsibility at the global level. Some countries resort to crime and others resort to indifference”.
“It is too late to fix the current architecture. It is high time for a new one before we pay with millions of casualties.”
He vowed his country would support itself with or without the help of its partners.
Updated
Truss: Ukraine could face 'worst-case scenario' as early as next week
Ukraine could face the worst-case scenario of a Russian invasion as soon as next week, and Europe faced one of its most perilous security situations since the early 20th century, British foreign minister Liz Truss told Munich security conference on Saturday.
“We need to prepare for the worst-case scenario and that worst case scenario could happen as early as next week,” she said. “The reality is that Russia does want to turn the clock back – they want to turn the clock back to the 1990s and before.”
She continued: “In the last week alone, we’ve seen a doubling of disinformation, and we’ve seen false-flag operations in the Donbas region. I’m afraid that Russia has shown that they are not serious about diplomacy.”
She added: “We need to be strong because that is the only thing that Russia understands.”
Updated
Saturday Summary
It’s been a hectic day of developments on the Ukraine crisis. Here’s Saturday’s top headlines so far.
- The US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said Russia is “poised to strike” Ukraine, echoing president Joe Biden’s comments yesterday that he believed the decision to invade had already been taken.
-
US vice-president Kamala Harris warned of “significant and unprecedented economic costs” if Russia invades, telling Russian president Vladimir Putin not to underestimate the strength of the west.
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Ukraine’s military reported intense shelling on Saturday morning from Russian-backed separatists against Ukrainian civilians. They released video footage showing shelling in areas close to rebel-held territories, saying there was a “gross” violation of ceasefires.
- Russia, meanwhile, is accusing Ukraine’s military of shelling Russian territory, claims Ukraine dismisses as false – as western leaders warn of potential Russian false-flag plots and disinformation campaigns as a pretext for invasion.
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Russia tested nuclear-capable ballistic missiles on Saturday – as part of annual drills that were pushed back – which many interpreted as a display of strength warning Nato not to get involved in Ukraine.
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Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said “no matter what, we are going to protect our beautiful land”, and blasted the international security architecture as fragile and needing reform.
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UK prime minister Boris Johnson said an Ukraine invasion would “echo around world”, in a speech warning of “a long and hideous period of reprisals and revenge and insurgency” if Putin invades. He said Russia was seeking to sow confusion for its own sake, but also said he still held out hope for a diplomatic resolution.
- The German foreign office called on all German nationals to leave Ukraine immediately. Meanwhile, airline Lufthansa suspended flights to Kyiv.
- The Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis called for stronger military defence of the Baltic states and Poland, amid fears over potential Russian aggression in the region.
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Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz said Putin would be making a “severe error” if he invades Ukraine, adding he hoped a diplomatic solution could still be reached, and dismissed Russian claims of genocide in the Donbas region as “ridiculous”. Russia hit back at Scholz on that last point – as western leaders warned of Russia disinformation and staged grievances before invading.
- Russian officials said evacuated civilians have arrived in Russia’s Rostov region from the Donbas – after accusing Ukraine of an imminent invasion, which it dismisses – but western officials warned Moscow was seeking to create a pretext in eastern Ukraine to invade its neighbour.
- Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, said international “peace cannot be taken for granted” and warned that Putin “will only get more Nato” on his borders amid aggression against Ukraine.
That’s all from me, Jem Bartholomew. I’ll be back tomorrow, over to my colleague Lauren Gambino. Bye for now.
Updated
The European Union has delivered emergency medical equipment to Ukraine following a request from Kyiv amid an escalation of the crisis with Russia.
Reuters reports the details from Brussels:
The request was made by Ukraine on Tuesday, amid rising fears of an imminent Russian invasion.
So far emergency aid has come from France, Romania, Slovenia, Ireland and Austria, the commission said.
France has sent a field hospital, medicines and hundreds of tents, blankets, sleeping bags. Additional aid, including medical equipment and power generators, were deployed by the other EU countries. More help is expected in coming days.
“Following a request from the government of Ukraine for emergency assistance due to the threat of further escalation, the European Commission is coordinating the delivery of essential supplies to support the civilian population,” said an EU statement.
When the scale of an emergency overwhelms the response capabilities of a country, it can request assistance via the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, which coordinates assistance from EU and other European countries.
Updated
Speaking now at the Munich Security Conference: the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, Finland president, Sauli Niinistö, Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, and the US senator Amy Klobuchar.
More to follow.
Updated
In Stanytsia Luhanska, a Ukrainian-controlled town on the outskirts of Luhansk, one of the Russia-backed separatist capitals, repeated thuds of incoming fire were audible on Saturday afternoon
Ukrainian officials in the town said there had been frequent bursts of incoming fire over the past few days. The Ukrainian military took a group of journalists into Stanytsia Luhanska by helicopter and armoured vehicles on Saturday to help dispel what it said was a false Russian narrative that the Ukrainian army has been behind the recent uptick in violence.
A kindergarten in the town was hit on Thursday morning while children were inside, and misinformation about the attack quickly spread on social media, with some pro-Russian accounts claiming the kindergarten was inside separatist territory and had been shelled by Ukrainian forces.
“Please only use verified information, especially when it comes to things that could cause panic and distress,” said deputy prime minister Iryna Vereschuk, speaking to journalists inside the kindergarten on Thursday.
“We don’t want escalation, we want peace,” she said. “It’s very important for everyone to understand that it’s the Russian Federation that’s behind this. Ukraine has no offensive plans,” she said.
Confusion over the kindergarten attack increased after observers from an international monitoring mission run by the Organisation for Security in Europe (OSCE) said in their daily report that they had been denied proper access to the site by a law enforcement office.
“This is incorrect. Our military says this did not happen,” said Vereschuk.
Serhiy Haidai, governor of Luhansk region, said plans had been drawn up to arrange for the evacuation of Stanytsia Luhanska and other settlements close to the front, however they would not be put into place unless there was a significant escalation of violence, despite the increased shelling in recent days.
“I’ve been getting a lot of calls in recent days from western Ukraine offering hotels and other places for evacuees to stay. We are thinking about it, and maybe in the coming days we will order an evacuation. But if we do it too quickly it will cause panic”.
Ukrainian military personnel said they, like everyone else, were left guessing what Putin will do next. “I dont know what’s going on in his head. It’s very hard to tell,” said colonel Oleksiy Vukolov, deputy commander in charge of the Luhansk section of the front line.
Updated
Fear of false flag ahead of invasion as Russia investigates 'Ukrainian shelling' which Ukraine denies
Russia opened a criminal investigation on Saturday into reports that Ukrainian shells exploded in Russia’s region of Rostov, as the west and Kyiv warn Moscow is looking to create a pretext to invade its neighbour.
A number of reports carried by Russian state news agencies earlier in the day said that at least three shells exploded in Russia’s border region of Rostov on Saturday.
Russian prosecutors said in a statement that according to their investigation “on 19 February 2022, from 5 to 6am, unidentified persons on the territory of Ukraine, using a multiple launch rocket system, shelled the border area of the Tarasovsky district of the Rostov region”.
Ukraine, which has repeatedly stated it had no intention to attack the pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas, quickly denied it was responsible for the shellings, calling for an independent investigation into the incidents.
“Ukraine did not carry out any such attacks. We call for an immediate and impartial international investigation into the incidents reported by the Russian media,” the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said.
One of the shells hit a Russian village house near the Ukrainian border, damaging its roof but hurting no one, the TASS news agency said. No casualties have been reported.
Updated
A group of international journalists came under artillery fire this afternoon during a visit to Novoluganskoe, just north of the rebel-held city of Horlivka.
The village has been shelled since morning. The journalists took refuge in a basement. No one was hurt.
Ukraine’s joint command escorted reporters to several locations which have come under separatist fire, including a kindergarten hit on Thursday by a shell, which injured three people.
Updated
Ukraine's president: No matter what we will protect our beautiful land
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said on Saturday “no matter what, we are going to protect our beautiful land”, striking a defiant tone as tensions with Russia reach unprecedented levels.
Zelenskiy, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, said he wanted a diplomatic resolution to the crisis, but called the global security architecture “cough syrup” compared with a vaccine and demanded a less fragile system.
The president also spoke of “massive shelling” in the last two days, in violation of the Minsk agreement, and said it was important that access for OSCE observers to occupied territories was not disrupted.
The president called on Nato members to be honest about whether they want Ukraine to become a member.
Zelenskiy said he did not know Russian president Vladimir Putin’s intentions, and proposed to meet him.
Updated
'Gross' ceasefire violation – Ukrainian military releases shelling video
Ukraine’s joint command has released video footage showing shelling at the Shchastia crossing point north of the rebel-held city of Luhansk this morning.
Several puffs of smoke can be seen as missiles land at and on the road. The footage was taken at 11.30am local time.
The foreign ministry in Kyiv said Russia was targeting a humanitarian convoy from the office of the United Nations commissioner for refugees, as it returned from separatist-controlled territory.
The attack represented a “gross violation” of ceasefires agreements, it said.
On Saturday, the Ukranian foreign ministry also said armed formations have unleashed provocative firing along the entire length of the contact line in the Donbas region, significantly aggravating the already tense security situation.
It said the following Ukrainian areas had been shelled from the Russian-backed rebel-held occupied territories, damaging civilian infrastructure and causing injuries to civilians and Ukrainian military: Stanytsia Luhanska, Shchastia, Pivdenne, Svitlodarsk and Bohdanivka six times or over, and Novotoshkivske, Zolote, Popasna, Pisky, Mariupol and Hranitne five times or under.
Updated
Germany calls on citizens to leave Ukraine, Lufthansa suspends flights to Kyiv
The German Foreign Office has called on all German nationals to leave Ukraine immediately, as western fears of a Russian military invasion into Ukraine continue.
“Warnings are given against travelling to Ukraine. German nationals are urged to leave the country now,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement posted on its website. A raft of other countries have previously urged their citizens to leave the country.
The country’s flagship airline Lufthansa also announced that it was suspending flights to and from Kyiv.
“This affects all departures from Monday, 21 February until 28 February 2022,” Lufthansa said.
Austria on Saturday also urged all of its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, with the exception of those currently residing in western Ukraine.
Updated
The Kremlin has hit back at earlier comments from Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz, when he blasted Russia’s claim of genocide in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region as “ridiculous”.
“This is not for German leaders to make a joke of genocide issues,” the Russian foreign ministry said, according to Interfax.
It comes after western leaders including the UK prime minister Boris Johnson and US vice-president Kamala Harris said at the Munich security conference on Saturday that Russia would attempt to spread disinformation and stage provocations as a pretext for invasion.
Updated
Shaun Walker, the Guardian’s central and eastern Europe correspondent, has taken a trip with the Ukrainian military to Stanytsia Luhanska, on the outskirts of the separatist capital of Luhansk.
Walker says: “It’s been receiving artillery fire for the past few days. We flew by helicopter landing in a field outside town and drove in.”
He quotes Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Iryna Vereschuk, speaking to journalists inside a kindergarten that was damaged, apparently by a strike from the other side of the lines, on Thursday.
Vereschuk said:
We don’t want escalation, we want peace. It’s very important for everyone to understand that it’s the Russian federation that’s behind this. We have no offensive plans.
Updated
Russia’s top diplomat has told France’s foreign minister that ignoring Moscow’s security demands was bad for stability in Europe and elsewhere, Russia’s foreign ministry said.
Reuters reports that in a phone call today Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, warned France’s Jean-Yves Le Drian that all countries should comply with their commitments to ensure the principle of “equal and indivisible security”, the ministry said.
In a statement it said:
Ignoring Russia’s legitimate rights in this area adversely affects the stability not only on the European continent, but also in the world.
Le Drian said that dialogue was still possible and that France was committed to work for it, but it was up to Russia to make that choice.
“Today, Russia’s actions and words are out of step,” Le Drian’s ministry said in a statement.
Boris Johnson reiterated the UK’s “unequivocal support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” during a meeting with the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in Munich.
The two insisted there was “still time for President Putin to choose the path of peace and diplomacy”.
According to PA Media a Downing Street spokeswoman said:
The leaders discussed the increasing tensions on Ukraine’s borders. The prime minister condemned recent Russian aggression including shelling in Donbass and cyberattacks against the Ukrainian government.
The prime minister underscored the UK’s unequivocal support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. President Zelenskiy thanked the prime minister for the UK’s assistance, including through Operation Orbital and financial support to Ukraine.
The prime minister told Zelenskiy that the UK continues to cooperate closely with international partners to make clear that any Russia incursion will be met with strength, including significant economic consequences.
The leaders agreed that any further Russian incursion into Ukraine would be a profound miscalculation which would be met with fierce resistance from Ukraine.
They agreed there was still time for Putin to choose the path of peace and diplomacy.
Updated
Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said Ukraine and the US would spare no diplomatic effort to protect Ukraine, after Kuleba met US secretary of state Antony Blinken at the Munich security conference.
Reuters reports that Kuleba tweeted:
Grateful to @SecBlinken for sharing additional data and assessments on Russia’s aggressive plans,” Kuleba tweeted. “Ukraine is now even better prepared for any further scenarios. Ukrainian and American diplomacy will spare no effort to protect Ukraine. The US stands by Ukraine resolutely.
Grateful to @SecBlinken for sharing additional data and assessments on Russia’s aggressive plans. Ukraine is now even better prepared for any further scenarios. Ukrainian and American diplomacy will spare no effort to protect Ukraine. The U.S. stands by Ukraine resolutely. pic.twitter.com/FZD7TrBOyb
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) February 19, 2022
Updated
Russia tests nuclear-capable ballistic missiles on Saturday
Russia successfully test-fired its nuclear-capable ballistic and hypersonic missiles as part of the annual strategic Grom exercises on Saturday, the Kremlin said, which some observers say was intended to send a message to Nato.
“All the missiles hit their targets, confirming their performance objectives,” a statement read, adding that the drills included nuclear submarines and Tu-95 bombers.
Russian state news agency Ria Novosti on Saturday published a photograph showing Putin watching the drills from a command centre alongside the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. Ria Novosti also published a number of videos showing the test launch of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile hitting land-based targets as well as the test launch of a RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile.
Russia’s defence ministry announced a day earlier that the Grom drills would take place “under the supervision of Russian armed forces supreme commander-in-chief, Vladimir Putin”, amid the worst tensions between Russia and the west in decades.
Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday that the Russian president was not expected to make any statements following the drills.
While the drills are annual with Putin frequently overseeing them, observers pointed to the fact that Russia this year delayed the exercises to a later date.
“The timing of the exercises this year is significant,” said Rob Lee, a Russian military expert and fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute.
“It looks the Grom exercises are a signal to Nato not to interfere if Russia decides an attack,” Lee said.
Updated
Boris Johnson: Ukraine invasion would 'echo around world'
Russia must fail and be seen to fail if it overruns Ukraine using brute force, UK prime minister Boris Johnson said on Saturday, adding the omens for an imminent disaster at this 11th hour are grim.
Giving a sombre vision of the consequences of invasion – including the loss of thousands of lives and a protracted conflict – he said if Russian president Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine, the “shock will echo across the world”.
In the most hardline speech given to the Munich security conference, Johnson said: “If dialogue fails and Russia chooses to use violence against an innocent and peaceful population in Ukraine, and to disregard the norms of civilised behaviour between states, and to disregard the charter of the UN, then we at this conference should be in doubt that it is in our collective self-interest that Russia should ultimately fail and be seen to fail.”
Johnson warned if Putin invaded “the war would be followed by a long and hideous period of reprisals and revenge and insurgency”, adding: “Russian parents would mourn the loss of young Russian soldiers, who in their way are every bit as innocent as the Ukrainians now bracing themselves for attack.
“After a generation of freedom in Ukraine we are now staring at a generation of bloodshed and misery. I believe Russia would have nothing to gain from this catastrophic adventure, and everything to lose.”
Johnson vowed that if Russia invades, it will no longer be able to raise finance on London’s capital markets. He also promised to open up the Russian dolls of shady corporate entities to find the ultimate beneficiaries within.
“We have to steel ourselves for a protracted crisis and we must together refuse to be worn down,” he said. “What Europe needs is strategic endurance.
“We will open up the Matryoshka dolls of Russian-owned companies and Russian-owned entities to find the ultimate beneficiaries within,” he vowed, in a pledge to clean up so-called “dirty” Russian money in Britain.
Johnson added: “Every time we have visited Ukraine we say we stand foursquare behind them, how hollow, how meaningless, how insulting those words would seem if at the very moment their sovereignty and independence were threatened we looked away.”
The speech was well-received, but Johnson immediately faced questions about his call for unity given the breakaway symbolised by Brexit.
The prime minister said an invasion would be a shock that echoed around the world – including in east Asia and Taiwan – saying the effect will be felt in every domain. The conclusion that would be drawn is that might is right and aggression pays.
He said if Nato’s forces are closer to the Russian border it is because it is a response to Vladimir Putin and the tensions he has created.
“We all agreed legal obligations to protect the security of every country in Europe,” he went on, saying the fall of the Berlin wall was an incredible moment. Countries at the heart of our continent “regained their liberty” and the “sovereign right to control their own destiny and seek their own alliances. We will not abandon the hope and impulse of that era made possible by the courage of millions of Europeans.”
He said the West cannot allow Nato’s open door to be slammed shut.
Updated
The Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis has called for stronger military defence of the Baltic states and Poland, amid fears over potential Russian aggression in the region.
Landsbergis met US defence secretary Lloyd Austin in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius today, with Austin warning Russia is “poised to strike” Ukraine.
Reuters reports from Vilnius:
Lithuania’s foreign minister called on Saturday for a stronger military defence of the Baltic states as well as Poland amid fears in the region of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“We have to be serious not about deterrence but about defence, we have to be ready to defend Baltic states and Poland,” Landsbergis told a joint news conference with US defence secretary Lloyd Austin in Vilnius.
Updated
US's Kamala Harris warns of 'unprecedented' economic sanctions and says 'do not underestimate west's strength'
Significant, swift and unprecedented costs will be placed on Russia’s finance houses, strategic industries and those Russian complicit politically if any invasion of Ukraine occurs, Kamala Harris, the US vice-president, vowed on Saturday.
Speaking at the Munich security conference she asserted the west was at a defining moment, with the foundation of European security under direct threat, saying: “life sometimes challenges us with reasons for being”.
Harris said: “I hope diplomacy does not lead to a dead end, but we are clear eyed there will be consequences and they will be swift and severe.
“I can say with absolute certainty if Russia further invades Ukraine the US together with its allies and partners will impose significant and unprecedented economic costs”.
Making a rare foray into the field of foreign policy, Harris said: “the economic measures will be swift, severe and united. We will impose far reaching financial sanctions and export controls. We will target Russia’s financial institutions and key industries and we will target those who aid and abet this unprovoked invasion. Make no mistake, the imposition of these sweeping and coordinated measures will inflict great damage on those that must be held accountable.”
Harris also vowed to strengthen Nato’s eastern flanks.
Giving a message on behalf of the US President that Europe and the US are in absolute lockstep over the threat posed by Russia she insisted “we have engaged in good faith. Russia continues to claim it’s ready for talks whilst at the same time it narrows the avenues for diplomacy, Their actions simply do not match their words”.
She said Russia was following a familiar playbook of Russian aggression. “Russia will plead ignorance and innocence. It will create false pretexts for invasion. It will mass troops and fire power in plain sight. We now see reports of provocations and we see Russia spreading lies, disinformation and propaganda”.
Her primary message was to reassure Europe of America’s “ironclad” commitment to Nato’s Article 5 – that demands all its members will commit themselves to the principle of collective self-defence. She said: “You should not underestimate our strength,” which is based on the west’s unity.
Out of the second world war she said “a consensus had been created “in favour of order, not chaos; security not conflict ... so laws and treaties we together established - a set of rules norms that have governed ever since”.
It meant “Europe has enjoyed unprecedented peace and security through a commitment to these principles including that “people have a right to form their own government, that nations have a right to choose their own alliances and there are inalienable rights that governments must protect.”
Updated
US defence secretary: Russia 'poised to strike' Ukraine
The US defence secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday appeared to compare Russia’s military to a snake that was uncoiling and preparing to strike Ukraine, after a massive military buildup that has stoked the biggest east-west crisis since the cold war.
Austin, speaking on a trip to Lithuania, said he agreed with president Joe Biden’s Friday assessment that Russian president Vladimir Putin has made a decision to stage a new invasion of Ukraine.
“They are uncoiling and are now poised to strike,” Austin told a news conference in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, ahead of talks with increasingly anxious Baltic leaders.
Updated
Germany's Olaf Scholz: Putin making 'severe error' if he invades Ukraine
It is unacceptable that Europe is facing a war about an issue that is not even on the agenda, the German chancellor Olaf Scholz said – underlining Russian president Vladimir Putin had no reason to believe the entry of Ukraine into Nato membership is likely.
Scholz said he did not understand why Russia had decided to make Ukraine’s potential membership of Nato as a casus belli since the issue was not even “pending” or on the table. “It will not happen the next time. It will not happen in the near time. Putin knows that,” he said.
But he said the West had to be open about this fact whilst on the other hand the EU and Nato could never reject the principle that its organisations are not closed to new eligible members.
Referencing the chances of new members joining Nato he predicted “there will not be too many movements in the future” pointing out that in principle the US is open to new members, but said apart from Puerto Rico this was unlikely.
Scholz has landed himself in trouble with some Nato partners in the past by speaking frankly that Ukraine’s chances of joining Nato are remote. Only four months into the job, and largely schooled in economic affairs, Scholz has found himself thrust into a massive geostrategic crisis.
He added Germany will not be naive in calling for further diplomacy in a bid to stop a war in Europe in its tracks. He said “there is nothing that justifies the deployment of well over 100,000 soldiers on Ukraine’s borders.
Scholz described Putin’s story that there was a genocide in Donbas as ridiculous, adding he refused to take seriously Putin’s historic claims that Russia and Ukraine are one people. He said if he took Putin’s claims seriously there would be little reason for optimism, but he did not.
Speaking at the Munich security conference on Saturday, Scholz said he urged “as much diplomacy as possible”, but he would not accept the Russian imposition of changed borders. “No country should be the backyard of another”, he said
He said western actions did not give Putin any reason to claim he was threatened by Nato, revealing that ijn his discussions last week in Moscow Putin kept citing Nato aggression in the Balkans, something Scholz said he had rejected.
Scholz added he had told Putin he would be making a severe error if he invaded Ukraine. He told Putin “any further violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty would come at a high price in political, economic and geostrategic terms”. His watchword , he said, was “as much diplomacy as possible without being naive - that is what we strive for”.
He added the West “had to have the confidence to differentiate between untenable demands and legitimate security concerns” by which he meant Nato should be prepared to negotiate with Russia over arms controls, and transparency, but not rolling back the borders of Nato.
He defended Germany’s decision not to send arms to Ukraine saying Germany is the largest supplier of economic help to Ukraine, adding “it would be nice that if more countries that acknowledged this fact in private would do so in public”.
Referencing the rise of China he said a new multilateral order is inevitable and welcome, but only so long as it is based on a willingness to cooperate with “everyone even strong play by the rules”.
Democracy, he insisted, was “not an exclusive western aspiration but a deeply universal human one”.
Updated
Evacuees arrive in Russia from separatist-held eastern Ukraine as west warns of false flags
Russian officials said on Saturday morning that more than 1,600 people have so arrived in Russia’s Rostov region from the Donbas, as part of the mass evacuation of citizens announced by the leaders of pro-Russia proxy states in eastern Ukraine on Friday evening.
Separatists of the two pro-Russia unrecognised republics on Friday evening called for the evacuation of women and children in the region, citing fears of an imminent Ukrainian military invasion, while western officials warned Moscow was seeking to create a pretext in eastern Ukraine to invade its neighbour.
Shortly after the evacuation announcement, photographs from Donetsk posted by Russian state media showed buses lined up for the evacuation.
State Duma deputy Viktor Vodolatsky told Russian state news agency Tass that he expected “the arrival of around 25,000 civilians evacuated from the Donbas” in the Rostov region by Saturday afternoon. Leaders of the two pro-Russia separatists proxy states said they plan to evacuate more than 700,000 people in total.
Russian state media on Friday released a number of videos showing temporary shelters set up for the citizens arriving from the Donbas in the Rostov region. Long traffic jams on border checkpoints into the country have also been reported overnight.
While the majority of the Donbas citizens will be placed in the southern Rostov region, a number of other regions across the country said they were ready to accommodate the evacuees.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also announced on Friday his government would pay 10,000 rubles (£95) to every “refugee” arriving in the country.
Some Donetsk residents said they were confused by the orders to evacuate and did not intend to leave for Russia.
“I am staying put. Donbas is my home. I have three small children, we don’t know what awaits us in Rostov,” Donetsk resident Kseniya Vasilyeva told the Guardian on Saturday.
Others said they decided to leave following a number of explosions in the two breakaway proxy states on Friday night.
Kyiv denied taking any hostile action in the Donbas and Ukrainian intelligence had earlier said infrastructure in the Donbas regions had been mined to provide a pretext for a Russian invasion.
“I am scared for my family, I have no choice but to leave,” said Oksana Pulkova who was planning to take a bus to Russia later in the day from Donetsk.
The evacuation comes as observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have said there was a “dramatic increase” in the number of attacks along the frontline in eastern Ukraine.
On Saturday morning, Ukraine’s armed forces and Moscow-backed rebels accused each other again of ceasefire violations. Ukraine also announced that one soldier has been killed during the fighting with Moscow-backed rebels.
Updated
Ukrainian military reports Russian-backed separatist shelling against Ukrainian civilians
Ukraine’s joint forces command is reporting intense shelling on Saturday morning from Russian-backed separatists against Ukrainian civilians.
It released photos showing artillery strikes in the past hour on the village of Novoluganskoe, in the Donetsk region, just north of the rebel-held city of Horlivka. A cloud of white smoke can be seen above houses and a line of trees.
The separatists attacked with 122mm artillery shells, Ukraine’s military said.
Its joint forces command said it had to deal with 17 incidents caused by shelling over the past 24 hours. It had put out multiple fires.
There were 74 cases of artillery attacks across the line of control from the separatist side, with 39 settlements affected in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts or regions, it added. Five villages had lost electricity, it said.
Updated
Explosions heard in Donetsk, Reuters reports
Reuters is reporting that multiple explosions could be heard on Saturday morning in the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk. The origins of the blast in the north of the city was not clear. There was no immediate comment from the Moscow-backed government in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).
The explosions follow repeated warnings by the Biden administration that Russia is preparing “false flag” operations to justify an invasion of Ukraine, including an attack on the capital, Kyiv. Ukraine foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has said the country’s forces are acting with restraint, despite intensive artillery bombardment since Thursday across the frontline in the east from separatist positions.
In a further development, Russian state media claimed a Ukrainian shell had landed inside Russian sovereign territory in the Tarasovsky district of the Rostov region, close to the village of Mityakinskaya. No one was hurt. Kremlin media photos showed a small crater, about a kilometre from the international border with Ukraine.
Источник сообщил о взрыве снаряда на территории Ростовской области. Он разорвался в километре от границы с Украиной, пострадавших нетhttps://t.co/zanoUTCf73 pic.twitter.com/WGEevHWqet
— РИА Новости (@rianru) February 19, 2022
Overnight the DNR accused the Ukrainian military of opening fire on the southern Donbas water pipeline. Kyiv denies the claim.
Updated
Nato secretary general: Russia will get more Nato on borders from aggression
Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, said international “peace cannot be taken for granted” and warned that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, “will only get more Nato” on his borders amid aggression against Ukraine.
Speaking at the Munich security conference, Stoltenberg said: “If the Kremlin’s aim is to have less Nato on its borders, it will only get more Nato. And if it wants to divide Nato, it will only get an even more united alliance.”
“Nato is a defensive alliance, we are not threatening Russia or anyone else. But we will take all necessary measures to protect and defend all our allies,” he added.
He went on: “The current crisis is about much more than Ukraine,” it is about “how we wish to organise relations between states. Moscow is attempting to roll back history and to stop admitting new [Nato] members,” an attempt by Russia to exert control over western security strategy.
Here’s who’s speaking later today:
- 9.30am GMT – Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz
- 10.30am GMT – US vice-president Kamala Harris
- 11.45am GMT – UK prime minister Boris Johnson
- 2.30pm GMT – Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy
- 3pm GMT – UK foreign secretary Liz Truss, Finland president Sauli Niinistö, Poland’s prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki and US senator Amy Klobuchar.
Updated
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said “we cannot let this stand” but there is “still hope that peace will prevail and that diplomacy will take us there.”
She said western leaders are ready to respond with financial and economic sanctions against a Russian invasion, and that gas reserves are “on the safe side” even in the event of full Russian gas supply disruption.
Von der Leyen said western allies are aligned and united, supporting democracy in Ukraine against its seven-year onslaught from Russia, she added, such as disinformation, cyber attacks and hybrid war.
Updated
Lithuania’s president called for boosting the security of the Baltic states with US troops, Reuters reports, after meeting with US defence secretary Lloyd Austin in Vilnius on Saturday.
“The Russian military buildup at the eastern Nato border is changing the security situation,” president Gitanas Nauseda said in a statement published after the meeting.
“It is critically important to strengthen the (Baltic states) regional security with additional troops from the United States and quicken cooperation in military procurement,” he added.
Saturday Morning Summary
Here are the latest key events you need to know.
- US president Joe Biden said on Friday he’s “convinced” Russian president Vladimir Putin has “made the decision” to invade Ukraine in the coming days. “We believe that they will target Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million innocent people,” he said. It marked a change in rhetoric from Biden and top national security aides who previously said they were not sure Putin would follow through.
-
Meanwhile, the UK said it is continuing to reserve judgement about whether Putin has decided to invade. Prime minister Boris Johnson has urged western leader to show unity, ahead of his speech in Munich, Germany Saturday afternoon. “There is still a chance to avoid unnecessary bloodshed, but it will require an overwhelming display of western solidarity beyond anything we have seen in recent history,” Johnson said. (Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US vice-president Kamala Harris will also attend.)
- The US said on Friday Russia’s troop build up is between 169,000 and 190,000 near Ukraine’s borders. That’s compared to 100,000 on 30 January. The assessment, from the US mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, is “the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War.”
- Russia has repeatedly said talk of invasion plans are western “hysteria,” and said some of its military drills were over and troops were returning to their bases. (Western powers saw no evidence of withdrawal.)
- Russian-backed separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine have ordered a full military mobilisation. It comes after separatists called for evacuation of women and children in the region, citing fears of an imminent Ukrainian military invasion. Ukraine’s ministry of defence said that claim was a false ploy intended to provide Russia with a pretext to invade.
This is Jem Bartholomew in London taking charge of the Ukraine crisis blog for today. Do get in touch via email or Twitter with tips and thoughts.
Updated
Here is the Guardian’s latest report on the Ukraine crisis:
Updated
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to attend Munich security conference on Saturday
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, will travel to Germany for the Munich security conference on Saturday, his office confirmed to Reuters. He will return the same day.
Joe Biden said last night that it may be wise for Zelenskiy to instead remain in Ukraine, given the mounting fears Russia is preparing to mount an offensive. There was earlier some uncertainty over whether Zelenskiy would chose to travel.
Zelenskiy will meet with various Western leaders in Munich, including US Vice President Kamala Harris.
Updated
The Kremlin has confirmed that Russian leader Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron will speak by phone on Sunday, the TASS news agency reported.
A second separatist leader, Leonid Pasechnik of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), has signed a decree calling for a full military mobilisation, according to Reuters.
Denis Pushilin of the pro-Russian separatist government in the Donetsk region issued a similar call earlier.
Updated
The Ukrainian military said it had recorded 12 ceasefire violations by pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine on Saturday morning, after 66 cases over the previous 24 hours.
Separatists opened fire on more than 20 settlements, using heavy artillery, which have been prohibited by Minsk agreements, the military said on its Facebook page.
The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine said in an earlier statement that it has observed “a dramatic increase” in ceasefire violations over recent days.
Updated
Separatist leader in eastern Ukraine orders troop mobilization
A separatist leader in eastern Ukraine has ordered a full military mobilization, Associated Press reports.
Denis Pushilin, the head of the pro-Russian separatist government in the Donetsk region, released a statement on Saturday announcing a full troop mobilization and urging reservists to come forwards.
“I urge my fellow citizens who are in the reserves to come to military conscription offices,” Pushilin said in a video statement.
On Friday, separatist authorities in Donetsk and Luhansk announced a mass evacuation of women, children and the elderly to neighboring Russia. Shortly after the evacuation effort started, several explosions hit the rebel-controlled areas.
Updated
Kamala Harris to warn of 'most severe sanctions ever levied against Russia' - reports
US Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to warn Russia that it will face huge financial costs if it further invades Ukraine when she speaks at the Munich security conference on Saturday, Associated Press reports.
The vice president will argue that the West has “strength through unity” and that an invasion would likely lead to an even bigger NATO footprint on Russia’s doorsteps, according to a senior administration official who briefed reporters on Harris’ diplomatic efforts.
Here is AP’s report:
In addition to talking to European allies and Americans at home, Harris has a message intended for Putin: step back from the precipice of war or suffer the most severe sanctions ever levied against Russia. But as the brewing crisis gets more complicated by the day, Biden and other administration officials have offered increasingly dire warnings that the window for diplomacy is narrow.
Biden on Friday told reporters he believes Putin has decided to invade in the coming days, taking military action that could go far beyond the disputed Donbas region and include the capital of Kyiv.
As Harris makes a late-inning push to Putin to pull back, she aimed to hit hard on the argument that the US will emerge stronger from a conflict while Russia will emerge weaker, a Biden administration official said.
Ahead of the speech, Harris sought to rally allies.
In addition to her meeting with the Baltic leaders, the vice president on Friday met with Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, briefed a bipartisan group of US lawmakers attending the conference about the rapidly changing situation, and consulted with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was also in Munich.
Harris was scheduled to meet after her speech on Saturday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
As mentioned previously, it is not yet clear if Zelenskiy will travel to Munich.
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The Russian embassy in the US has rejected US allegations that it is behind cyber attacks on Ukraine, calling them “purely anti-Russian” and baseless.
We have taken note of purely anti-Russian statements of Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger, who accused the Russian special services of cyberattacks on Ukrainian defense agencies and banks. pic.twitter.com/AVuyQ8swWl
— Russian Embassy in USA 🇷🇺 (@RusEmbUSA) February 19, 2022
We categorically reject these baseless statements of the administration and note that Russia has nothing to do with the mentioned events and in principle has never conducted and does not conduct any "malicious" operations in cyberspace.
— Russian Embassy in USA 🇷🇺 (@RusEmbUSA) February 19, 2022
The White House and the UK government said on Friday they believed that Russia was behind cyber attacks this week that temporarily shut down the websites of two of Ukraine’s biggest banks and its ministry of defence.
Ukraine’s deputy prime minister said at the time that the denial of service attack – attempts to overwhelm a website by flooding it with millions of requests - were the largest of its type ever seen.
“Russia has nothing to do with the mentioned events and in principle has never conducted and does not conduct any “malicious” operations in cyberspace,” the Russian Embassy in the US said.
Updated
It is not yet clear if Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy will go ahead with plans to travel to Germany for the Munich security conference on Saturday. He was expected to meet with various Western leaders to build support, including with US Vice-President Kamala Harris.
On Friday night, Joe Biden said that it was up to Zelenskiy to choose whether or not he would leave the country to travel to Germany. But he added that “in the pursuit of a diplomatic solution, it may be the wise choice” for him to stay.
Zelenskiy was still considering his travel plans last night, according to reports.
The Munich security conference was founded in 1963 as a way for Western leaders to discuss the most pressing international security issues. Russia is not attending this year’s gathering - the first time it has missed the conference since 1999.
Updated
Leading gas producers will meet in Qatar from Sunday to discuss how to meet frantic world demand, but Russian president Vladimir Putin is expected to stay away as Ukraine tensions escalate.
Here is a report from AFP on the developments:
The 11-member Gas Exporting Countries Forum will hold its annual summit as the Ukraine crisis sends prices ever higher, and Europe fears for its supplies from Russia.
The group that includes Russia, Qatar, Iran, Libya, Algeria and Nigeria - accounting for more than 70% of proven gas reserves - has faced mounting pressure as Europe has sought alternative suppliers to Russia.
But most say they are already at or near maximum production and can only send short term relief supplies to Europe if existing customers agree.
Diplomats who took part in preparatory meetings said the group - which does not include key producers Australia and the United States - will discuss ways to increase production in the medium term.
“But their hands are tied, there is next to no spare gas,” said one, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Putin is not expected to take up his invitation to attend despite his country’s importance, diplomats said.
Thierry Bros, a professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris who specialises in the gas industry, said Russia has a dominant role in the industry as its Gazprom giant is the only enterprise with spare capacity.
“So it is Putin who decides and he decides at the Kremlin.”
Updated
More than 40% of Russian forces on Ukraine border in attack position - US official
More than 40 percent of the Russian forces on the Ukraine border are now in position for attack and Moscow has begun a campaign of destabilization, a US defense official said on Friday, according to a report by Agence France-Presse.
The official, who spoke to reporters anonymously, said the US had observed significant movements since Wednesday. The US estimates that Russia has stationed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders.
“Forty to fifty percent are in an attack position. They have uncoiled in tactical assembly in the last 48 hours,” the official told reporters.
Here is some further detail from AFP’s report:
Tactical assembly points are areas next to the border where military units are set up in advance of an attack.
The official said Moscow had massed 125 battalion tactical groups close to the Ukraine border, compared to 60 in normal times and up from 80 at the beginning of February.
The increase in clashes between pro-Russian separatists and Ukraine government forces in the southeastern Donbas region of Ukraine, and inflammatory claims by officials in Russia and Donbas, show that “the destabilization campaign has begun,” the official said.
Washington has warned for weeks that Russia could provoke or fabricate an incident in the area to serve as a pretext for invading Ukraine.
Updated
Welcome
Hello everyone. I’m Rebecca Ratcliffe and welcome to our rolling coverage of the Ukraine crisis.
Vladimir Putin is expected to personally oversee major military drills along Ukraine’s borders on Saturday, amid intensifying fears of an looming Russian invasion.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy is reportedly considering travelling to Germany for talks with Western leaders - though Joe Biden has cautioned that it “may not” be wise for Zelenskiy to leave his country.
Here is a recap of the key events so far:
- Biden warned in a speech late on Friday that he is “convinced” Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and target its capital, Kyiv, which he said would be a “catastrophic and needless war of choice”. Biden said that until the attack began “diplomacy is always a possibility”. The invasion could come in the next days or week, he said.
- Biden said that the US and its European allies were ready to impose “severe” economic sanctions on Russia in response to an attack, but that it would not send troops to fight in Ukraine. His comments on Friday evening followed a day of fast-moving events in and around Ukraine.
- Leaders of Russian-backed breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk claimed to be under attack from Ukraine and ordered the mass evacuation of civilians.
- As the US and its allies warned of “false flags” that would give a pretext for a Russian attack, a gas pipeline in Luhansk caught fire after explosions, and a second blast hit the city about 40 minutes later. Earlier on Friday, a car bomb detonated in an empty lot in Donetsk.
- Biden called out Russian “disinformation” and said that claims in the Russian media that Ukraine was the aggressor and planning a major attack “defies basic logic” of what a country would do with over 150,000 troops arrayed at its borders.
- Satellite imagery showed new Russian military movements, with helicopters and tanks moving closer to the border in multiple sites around the Ukraine border.
