British voters head to the polls this Thursday, with the opposition Labour Party projected to secure a landslide victory. However, experts suggest that the vote is driven more by fatigue from over a decade of Conservative rule marked by erratic policy decisions, political chaos, and a deteriorating economy, rather than strong support for Labour's platform.
John Barry, a political scientist at Queens University in Belfast, predicts that the Conservative Party will "suffer a massive defeat".
He explains, "There is a palpable sense of exhaustion within the Conservative Party, and the public has simply had enough of 10 years of Conservative rule."
Key points of discontent include "the disaster of Brexit, the chaos within the Conservative Party under four prime ministers, the disgraceful behavior of former PM Boris Johnson during the COVID period," and the failed policies of former PM Liz Truss.
For the past two years, polling has indicated that Labour is 20 points ahead of the Conservatives, and no amount of campaigning has managed to shift the dial.
Both the Conservative program and the Labour Party Manifesto present plans aimed at improving economic conditions for the population.
The Conservatives propose tax cuts as the core of their strategy to stimulate economic growth while also aiming to reduce borrowing and debt.
Labour, on the other hand, focus on wealth creation, pledging to be "pro-business and pro-worker" and to introduce a new industrial strategy that will put an end to short-term economic policies.
On healthcare, the Conservatives have pledged to increase funding for the National Health Service (NHS) above inflation every year and to recruit 92,000 more nurses and 28,000 more doctors.
Labour, meanwhile, promise to cut waiting times by adding 40,000 more appointments every week and doubling the number of cancer scanners.
Regarding defence, both parties aim to spend 2.5 percent of the UK's gross domestic product.
On immigration, the Conservatives want to maintain the controversial scheme of sending illegal Channel crossers to Rwanda.
Labour plans to reform the points-based system by introducing visa restrictions and training workers where there are domestic shortages.
They vow to scrap the government's Rwanda plan, focus on stopping people-smuggling gangs, and strengthen border security.
Brexit still an issue?
In 2016, then-Conservative MP and party leader David Cameron triggered the Brexit referendum, which resulted in a 52-48 percent vote in favour of leaving the European Union.
Fast forward eight years, and a report issued by Cambridge Econometrics, commissioned by London's Mayor Sadiq Khan last January, indicated that the UK economy had shrunk by €165 billion as a result of Brexit.
The report projected that the average Briton was nearly €2,358 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was over €4,000 worse off last year due to Brexit.
It also calculated that there are nearly two million fewer jobs overall in the UK because of Brexit, with almost 300,000 fewer jobs in the capital alone.
The public have simply had enough of ten years of Conservative rule.
REMARKS by John Barry, Political scientist with Queens University Belfast
A projection for 2035 is even gloomier: by then, the UK is expected to have 3 million fewer jobs, 32 percent lower investments, 5 percent lower exports, and 16 percent lower imports than if it had remained in the EU, according to the study.
Another report, published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in July 2023, supports this negative outlook.
It states that "Brexit has had a large and continuing negative impact on UK exports, with a particularly large impact on smaller firms" and that "the best estimate of Brexit's negative impact on UK GDP to date is two to three percent."
While the Conservatives grapple with the Brexit fallout – and Nigel Farage's staunchly pro-Brexit Reform Party advocates for an even harder Brexit – Labour refrains from discussing reversing the decision.
"The Labour Party has ruled out rejoining the single market because they aim to win over the northern England constituencies that voted for Brexit," says Barry.
"These constituencies then voted for Boris Johnson. Labour wants to win them back."
According to Barry, Labour might be thinking about "at least two terms in office. The first term is about correcting the mistakes of the Conservative Party, implementing policies in energy and healthcare."
If successful, a second Labour government might "consider reopening the debate around Europe" – but Labour leader Keir Starmer has been adamant that he doesn't see the UK joining the European single market or customs union in his lifetime.
Rise of the far-right in Europe
The UK election takes place between the first and decisive second rounds of the French legislative elections.
In the first round, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) secured 33 percent of the vote, while President Macron's Renaissance party was reduced to just 20 percent.
However, Barry believes that Europe's shift to the right – with far-right controlled governments in the Netherlands, Italy, and Hungary – won't significantly influence UK voters.
"What's happened in France would probably harden positions in the UK," he says.
"If you're very right-wing oriented, you'd probably be more likely to vote for Farage and that anti-immigrant sentiment, which Le Pen's party also represents. For Labour Party voters, it would make them more likely to vote for Labour."
While there might be a "sigh of relief within a lot of European capitals" if Labour wins, Farage's Reform party (polling at 16 percent on June 26) and hard-core Brexit proponents united in groups like the ultra-Conservative, pro-leave Bruges Group will be inspired by the surge of far-right sentiments within the EU.
"Farage is appealing to those hard-core Brexit voters, some of whom are currently voting for the Conservative Party," Barry explains.
"We will see many Conservative voters who want more Brexit switch to Reform, and they will do well in parts of Britain where the leave vote was very strong," he concludes.
