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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

UK may avoid 2022 recession after growing 0.1% in November – as it happened

ING Recession United Kingdom JP Morgan Apple Tim Cook Economy World Cup James Smith Jamie Dimon
Buildings in the financial district of The City of London.
Buildings in the financial district of The City of London. Photograph: Neil Hall/EPA

Closing post

Time to wrap up, after a busy day in which the UK economy showed a little more strength than expected. A shame we can’t have the World Cup every month.

Here are today’s stories, first on the November GDP report:

Goodnight, and have a lovely weekend. Back next week, when it’s the World Economic Forum in Davos… GW

It’s been a busy week for retail news, with a flurry of updates from major shopping chains and supermarket giants.

Several did better than expected, despite the squeeze on incomes, while online specialists suffered from postal strikes and shortages of van drivers

My colleague Sarah Butler has looked at the things we’ve learned, here.

JP Morgan investment bankers suffer 30% bonus cut as takeover deals slump

As well as predicting a ‘mild recession’, JP Morgan has also slashed bonuses for investment bankers by 30% after a slump in takeover deals.

Wall Street’s largest lender reported a 22% drop in full-year profits to $38bn (£31bn) on Friday, having suffered the ripple effects of the economic slowdown linked to the war in Ukraine, my colleague Kalyeena Makortoff writes.

Some of its largest losses for 2022 were recorded in its investment bank, with a 58% drop in fees from dealmaking in the fourth quarter alone, contributing to a 29% decline in the division’s annual profits to $15bn.

JP Morgan’s chair and chief executive, Jamie Dimon, said investment banking fees were “down significantly in a challenging environment”. More here.

The UK recession is delayed, not cancelled, fears Paul Dales of Capital Economics.

Following the better-than-expected 0.1% growth in November, Dales says:

It’s starting to feel like a recession will never happen, but it will.

Admittedly, the government may be absorbing more of the hit to national income from the surge in the cost of energy imports than we expected. The total reduction in national income may be smaller than we previously thought too.

But we know that the surge in inflation and rise in interest rates will eventually hurt households and businesses.

As such, we still think there will be a recession. It’s just starting later than we thought and may be a bit smaller.

Updated

Wall Street opens lower, after FTSE 100 touched four-year high

In the markets, the UK FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares touched its highest level since May 2018 this morning.

The FTSE 100 traded as high as 7847, nearing the record high of 7,903 set on 22nd May 2018, led by healthcare, financials, industrials and basic materials stocks.

Hopes that the global inflation shock has peaked have lifted global markets this week.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, says:

“A decent showing on Wall Street following news that US consumer prices dropped in December helped to lift investor sentiment in Asia and Europe on Friday.

Investors are desperate for inflation to ease back so that central banks no longer have a reason to keep putting up interest rates

Smashing through the alltime high would give overseas investors another reason to start looking more seriously at UK stocks, Mould explains:

“After the Brexit vote, UK stocks were off the menu for many international investors and valuations plummeted. This remained the case for some time until some canny players realised the opportunities to be had, leading to a wave of takeovers – decent businesses picked up on the cheap.

Wall Street isn’t making such a decent showing today, alas, after JP Morgan said it now expects a mild recession.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just fallen by 250 points, or 0.7%, at the open to 33939 points, with the broader S&P 500 share index down 0.77%.

JP Morgan says mild recession is now ‘central case’

Wall Street bank JP Morgan has revealed that a ‘mild recession’ is now the central case in its macroeconomic outlook.

Announcing its latest financial results, JP Morgan says it has set aside another $1.4bn to cover credit losses.

It says:

The net reserve build in the current quarter included $1.0 billion in Consumer and $343 million in Wholesale, driven by a modest deterioration in the Firm’s macroeconomic outlook, now reflecting a mild recession in the central case.

CEO Jamie Dimon said the US economy currently remains strong with consumers still spending excess cash and businesses healthy.

But he warned that the economy faces headwinds, including from inflation and the Ukraine war:

However, we still do not know the ultimate effect of the headwinds coming from geopolitical tensions including the war in Ukraine, the vulnerable state of energy and food supplies, persistent inflation that is eroding purchasing power and has pushed interest rates higher, and the unprecedented quantitative tightening.

We remain vigilant and are prepared for whatever happens, so we can serve our customers, clients and communities around the world across a broad range of economic environments

The UK economy is still under “immense strain”, despite the pick-up in growth in November, says Craig Erlam, senior market analyst for UK & EMEA at trading firm OANDA.

He fears the recession is only ‘delayed’ by the pick-up in activity in November.

The optimists may put to some of the recent data as an indication of some resilience in the economy but I’m not convinced.

Take the UK, for example. It may not be in a technical recession afterall, with spending around the World Cup enabling a better performance in November, delivering growth of 0.1% after a 0.5% gain in October.

Aside from the fact that December could be worse as a result, or some of those gains could be revised out, those numbers don’t change the reality of the cost-of-living crisis and if accurate, it more likely reflects shifted spending patterns as opposed to a more willing consumer. A recession may be delayed but the economy is still under immense strain.

The Apple chief executive, Tim Cook, is expected to have his pay cut by almost 50% this year to about $49m (£40m) after the billionaire boss asked the company to “adjust his compensation” in the light of feedback from shareholders disappointed at the fall in the company’s share price.

Cook, 62, who became CEO after the death of the co-founder Steve Jobs in 2011, was paid $99.4m in 2022 and $98.8m in 2021. But the company said in a regulatory filing late on Thursday night that it had set a “target compensation” of $49m for 2023.

“The compensation committee balanced shareholder feedback, Apple’s exceptional performance, and a recommendation from Mr Cook to adjust his compensation in light of the feedback received,” Apple said in the filing.

Cook’s annual base salary and bonus will remain unchanged at $3m and $6m respectively. But the “targeted” amount he will be given in share-based bonuses will fall from $75m last year to $40m this coming year.

The amount given in share bonuses will also be more dependent on Apple’s share price performance than it was last year. Now 75% of the share bonus is dependent on Apple’s stock market performance, up from 50% last year.

Apple’s shares have fallen by 23% over the past 12 months to $133.41 at the close on Thursday, raising concerns among some shareholders. More here.

In another encouraging economic sign this morning, Eurozone industrial production rose more than expected in November.

Industrial production jumped by 1.0% in the euro area, statistics body Eurostat reports, which is twice as fast as economists predicted.

With Germany possibly avoiding a recession this winter (see earlier post), this could indicate Europe’s economy ended 2022 a little stronger than feared.

Separate data this morning shows that the eurozone’s trade deficit in goods narrowed month-on-month in November, as energy prices fell.

Ken Wattret, head of European analysis and insights at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says it’s now a close call whether the eurozone can avoid recession.

Activity data, surveys and nowcasts all suggest it’s a close call. However, whether GDP is slightly up or slightly down is not so important.

The key point, thankfully, is that the risk of a severe recession, and its numerous knock-on effects, has markedly diminished.

Today’s UK GDP figures once again underline the importance of hospitality in driving economic growth and recovery, says UKHospitality chief executive Kate Nicholls.

Nicholls adds:

“The World Cup provided a significant boost in November, with pubs and bars reporting sales up 30-40% on matchdays. This once again shows the power of big sporting events, even in the winter, and the important role our venues play in bringing communities together.

“However, the figures also highlight the impact strike action had on the sector and the cost of lost sales is likely to be set out more starkly in next month’s figures.

ING: Warnings over Britain’s ‘long’ and ‘deep’ recession are exaggerated

The UK outlook “undoubtedly looks bad”, but ING’s developed markets economist James Smith cautions against “overdoing the pessimism”.

Smith predicts that the economy may be flat in the last quarter of 2022 – avoiding a technical recession. But, he forecasts a decline in growth in the first quarter of 2023, with a ‘mild recession’ likely.

Smith writes:

Growth of 0.1% in November means that overall fourth-quarter GDP will most likely come in flat, though this says more about distortions and extra Bank Holidays than economic outperformance. First-quarter data is likely to show a more meaningful decline in output.

“Predicting the depth of any recession is difficult – not least because so-called ‘non-linearities’ tend to kick in when past excesses are exposed or job cuts begin to spread across industries. But for now, we agree with those looking for a mild recession by historical standards.

“We’re looking for a peak-to-trough fall in GDP of a little more than 1.5%, which would match closest with the early 1990s recession in terms of scale, if not the surrounding circumstances. And despite the UK’s many woes, particularly in the jobs market, we aren’t convinced Britain will be a serious outlier from the rest of Europe on the hit to GDP this year, even if it probably does sit in the bottom half of the pack.

“Our forecasts show the UK is likely to be towards the bottom of the pack this year when it comes to growth, for many of the reasons discussed here. But we’d emphasise that it doesn’t look like an extreme outlier either.

Our growth projections for later in 2023 – measured by 3Q23/3Q22 year-on-year growth – show Britain (-1.4%) underperforming the eurozone as a whole (-0.7%) but with a lower hit than Germany (-1.8%).”

Analysis: The UK may avoid a recession for now but it won’t feel like it for many

Jeremy Hunt’s response (see here) to this morning’s GDP data suggests the chancellor is not getting carried away by the performance of the economy in November, and wisely so, our economics editor Larry Elliott writes:

As the Treasury pointed out, the International Monetary Fund is predicting that a third of the world economy will be in recession this year and the UK could clearly be one of the countries affected.

Even if the economy has so far avoided recession – and that remains touch and go – it doesn’t mean it will necessarily continue to do so in the face of rising interest rates and higher taxes over the coming months.

There is also the little matter of the brutal squeeze on living standards caused by wages rising less quickly than prices. The Resolution Foundation thinktank says typical household disposable incomes are on course to drop by 7% – or £2,100 – this year. So even if the economy is not actually in recession, for many people it will still feel like it.

Here’s Larry’s analysis:

Updated

UK's top economic adviser, Clare Lombardelli, to join OECD

The UK government’s most senior economic adviser has been hired by the OECD as its chief economist, in the first time a British person has held the role for 30 years.

Clare Lombardelli, the chief economic adviser to the Treasury, will take the position at the Paris-based club of wealthy nations after the Spring budget.

Representing 38 of the world’s leading economies, the OECD acts as a powerful forum for developing economic policy and setting international standards, including efforts to combat tax evasion and agreeing a global minimum corporation tax.

Lombardelli will lead the OECD’s economic work, replacing France’s Laurence Boone, who left the organisation last summer to join Emmanuel Macron’s government as Europe minister after four years in the role.

Her appointment comes as many of the world’s leading economies slump into recession amid sky-high inflation fuelled by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the fallout from the Covid pandemic, including in Britain.

Taking the role will come with delicate subjects for the outgoing top civil servant to handle, with the OECD among leading international bodies to highlight the self-inflicted economic damage of Brexit and Britain’s lacklustre growth performance on the world stage in recent months.

She also departs the Treasury after a period of intense political pressure, as a focal point for criticism of under Liz Truss’ brief premiership, before the disaster of the mini budget.

The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said Lombardelli was an “exceptional civil servant” who provided clear and level-headed advice.

Hunt said:

“I congratulate Clare on her well-deserved appointment. It’s great to have a Brit in the role and look forward to working with her in the future.”

A former Bank of England economist, Lombardelli has worked in government since 2005, including as principal private secretary to the chancellor, to the prime minister, and budget director. She has also worked as a technical adviser to the International Monetary Fund.

Strike action will have hit UK GDP in December, points out Sam Miley, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

Miley also flags that manufacturing contracted (by 0.5%) in November, while construction stalled.

“The UK economy unexpectedly grew in November, driven by an expansion in the services sector. Beneath the headline growth, there remains evidence of various headwinds impacting the economy, with a sharp monthly decline in manufacturing output being accompanied by a flatlining construction sector.

Despite monthly growth in both October and November, a quarterly contraction in Q4 is still a possibility. In addition to continuing consumer and business pressures, the wave of industrial action witnessed at the end of 2022 will also have a downward effect on December’s GDP figures.”

NIESR, the economic thinktank, predict the UK economy shrank slightly in December, but not by enough to pull the economy into a recession.

We also have new economic data from Germany, showing that Europe’s largest economy probably stalled in the last quarter of 2022.

The German economy likely stagnated in the final quarter of last year and grew by 1.9% over the full-year 2022, the Federal Statistics Office said on Friday.

That suggest Europe’s largest economy may just escape a recession over the winter, despite the economic pain from higher energy prices.

The 1.9% rise in Germany’s GDP in 2022 is slightly above forecasts – a Reuters poll of economists predicted 1.8% growth last year.

FTSE 100 highest since May 2018 with record high in sight

In the City, the UK’s FTSE 100 share index has hit its highest level since May 2018.

The blue-chip share index has hit 7847 points, up 0.7% this morning, approaching the alltime intraday record high of 7903 set on 22 May 2018.

Industrial technology firm Rolls-Royce are the top riser, up 2.4%. Banks and mining companies are also in the top risers,

European equities are also rallying, after data yesterday showed that US inflation had cooled last month. US CPI fell to 6.5% in the year to December, down from 7.1% in November, bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest-rate hikes.

Neil Wilson of Markets.com says markets are beneiftting from China’s relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, which may spur demand for energy and commodities.

A fresh all-time high for the index in this kind of macro environment probably reflects a bit of defensiveness among global investors, a hunt for yield, relative cheapness and a weaker pound (in dollar terms we are a long way off the all-time high), a belief the Fed is almost done with rate hikes as inflation peaks, and hopes that China’s reopening will drive the commodity and energy sectors.

Investors have also trimmed their forecasts for how high UK interest rates will rise this year. They are now seen peaking below 4.5%, up from 3.5% at present. A lower peak would support economic growth.

So far this year, the FTSE 100 has already gained over 5%. In 2022 it gained almost 1%, while global markets tumbled around 20%.

UK "likely to have avoided a 2022 recession"

The UK is likely to have avoided a 2022 recession thanks to the “surprise economic growth” of 0.1% in November, says the Resolution Foundation.

But they also warn that “the risk of recession still looms large” as the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility both forecast the economy will shrink in the first half of 2023.

Resolution also points out that family incomes are still shrinking, with typical household disposable incomes on track to fall by 7% – equivalent to £2,100 per household – over this financial year and the next one.

James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation, explains:

“Surprise economic growth in November – driven by the UK’s dominant services sector – means Britain has likely avoided a rapid return to recession in 2022.

“But while GDP may not have been shrinking, household incomes certainly were – and are – as families experience a deep living standards downturn.”

Updated

Full story: UK economy grew by only 0.1% in November

The UK economy grew by 0.1% in November as consumers headed to the shops in the run-up to Christmas and pubs and bars enjoyed a boost from the World Cup.

It was a slowdown compared with 0.5% growth in October, when the economy rebounded from a weak September, when many businesses closed for the Queen’s funeral. It was, however, better than forecasts, with City economists predicting the economy would shrink by 0.2 % in November.

The onset of a recession in the manufacturing sector limited the strength of the economy and meant that over the three months to November the economy contracted by 0.3%, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The ONS said mining and construction also offset the effect of the decline in manufacturing.

The Bank of England has warned that the UK is probably set for a long recession, as defined by two consecutive quarters of contraction. The economy shrank by 0.3% in the third quarter between July and September, and figures for the October to December period will be published next month, confirming whether or not the economy entered recession at that point.

Thomas Pugh, economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, says the UK’s recession has been delayed, not cancelled.

And he points out that a 0.1% rise in GDP doesn’t feel much different than a fall of 0.1%:

‘The surprise 0.1% m/m rise in GDP in November (consensus -0.3% m/m) means there is now a chance that overall growth in Q4 might be positive if GDP falls by less than 0.4% m/m in December. That would mean the official definition of a recession of two consecutive quarters of negative growth might not be met until Q2 of this year.

‘Of course, that doesn’t change much on the ground. For businesses operating in the real economy a rise in GDP of 0.1% doesn’t feel much different to a drop in GDP of 0.1%. But a milder recession would mean that unemployment rises more slowly, wage growth stays strong and domestically generated inflation falls more slowly than expected. This could result in the Bank of England (BoE) raising rates by more than expected.

Labour’s shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is concerned that growth was ‘on the floor’ in the three months to November, with GDP falling by 0.3% during the period.

That contraction was partly caused by the bank holiday in September for Queen Elizabeth’s state funeral. GDP fell by 0.8% in September.

Updated

Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, thinks the Bank of England could be spurred to raise interest rates again next month by the surprise growth in November.

Ussher says:

“This is stronger activity than was expected for November and so will further contribute to the improvement in market sentiment we have seen in the last few weeks. Given we know the economy also grew in October – albeit driven by a rebound from the period of state mourning – it is no longer certain that the economy will meet the technical definition of a recession when the final data for 2022 is in.

“Today’s better-than-expected data will be encouraging for businesses, but may also cause a cautious Bank of England to continue raising rates unnecessarily when they meet in early February.

The risk now is that rates will rise too far if inflation is already on a downward path due to changes in global energy prices.”

Updated

A drop in Covid-19 vaccinations weighed on UK economic growth in November.

The ONS reports that NHS Test and Trace and COVID-19 vaccination programme activity fell by 63% in November 2022, following increases in September and October.

This was driven by a fall in vaccine activity as the autumn booster programme slowed down. It began in early September.

Overall, NHS Test and Trace and the COVID-19 vaccination programme contributed an estimated negative 0.2 percentage points to monthly GDP growth, the ONS explains.

Economist Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at financial services giant Allianz, tweets there are three key messages from the UK GDP report.

Namely, growth was higher than expected; the services sector is driving it; and the jobs market looks relatively tight:

The surprising rise in GDP in November suggests that the economy is proving more resilient than many had feared, says Suren Thiru, economics director at ICAEW (the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales):

But, Thiru fears November’s growth will only delay the recession, saying:

A strong boost to consumer activity from the World Cup helped lift overall activity.

The positive November outturn delays rather than diminishes the prospect of recession with soaring inflation, higher unemployment, rising interest rates and taxes likely to suffocate activity for much of this year.”

Capital Economics: GDP resilient, but still set for contraction in Q1 2023

Capital Economics’ senior UK economist, Ruth Gregory, says the UK may avoid a recession in 2022, thanks to the “undeniably encouraging” news that the economy grew slightly in November.

The small 0.1% month-on-month gain in real GDP in November suggests the economy “was not as weak in Q4 as we had previously thought”, Gregory says. But 2023 will still be tough, she adds:

But even if the economy does a bit better than expected in Q4, it is at best stagnating.

And it is too soon to conclude the economy will be able to get through this period of high interest rates and high inflation largely unscathed. We still think a recession is on its way in the first half of 2023.

Updated

Does the unexpected growth in November mean the UK could have avoided falling into recession at the end of last year?

It all depends on how the economy fared in December.

ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan has told Radio 4’s Today programme that if GDP falls by 0.6% or more in December, that would mean the economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2022.

That would be the second quarterly contraction in a row – a technical recession.

Morgan says:

If all else is equal, so no revisions to earlier months, for quarter four to be negative the economy has to fall by at least 0.6% [in December].

The ONS will release GDP data for December, and for the fourth-quarter of 2022, on February 10th, Morgan adds.

ONS: The economy grew a little in November, but strikes hit economy

Growth at telecommunications and computer programming companies helped the UK economy to expand, just 0.1%, in November, says ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan.

Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games, he explains, with England and Wales both playing in Qatar.

But this was “partially offset” by further falls in some manufacturing industries, including the pharmaceutical industry (where output can be erratic).

Strikes also hit the transport and postal sectors, Morgan says, adding:

“Over the last three months, however, the economy still shrank – mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September.”

Hunt: Bringing down inflation will get economy growing

Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, says:

“We have a clear plan to halve inflation this year - an insidious hidden tax which has led to hikes in interest rates and mortgage costs, holding back growth here and around the world.

“To support families through this tough patch, we will provide an average of £3,500 support for every household over this year and next - but the most important help we can give is to stick to the plan to halve inflation this year so we get the economy growing again.”

UK GDP November 2022

UK GDP: the details

The UK’s services sector grew by 0.2% during November, with the men’s World Cup in Qatar providing a boost to pubs and bars, as supporters gathered to watch games.

But manufacturing continued to struggle, with its output falling by 0.5%.

The construction sector stagnated.

Here’s the details of how the UK economy performed in November, from the Office for National Statistics:

  • The services sector grew by 0.2% in November 2022, after growth of 0.7% (revised up from a growth 0.6% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contributions came from administrative and support service activities and information and communication.

  • Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% in November 2022, following growth of 1.5% (revised up from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contribution to growth came from food and beverage service activities in a month where the FIFA World Cup started.

  • Production output decreased by 0.2% in November 2022, after a fall of 0.1% (revised down from flat in our previous publication) in October 2022; manufacturing was the main driver of negative production growth in November 2022, partially offset by a positive contribution from mining and quarrying.

  • The construction sector was flat in November 2022 after growth of 0.4% (revised down from growth of 0.8% in our previous publication) in October 2022.

Updated

Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.3% below its pre-Covid-19 levels in February 2020, the ONS says.

GDP: UK economy grew by 0.1% in November

Breaking: the UK economy grew slightly in November, better than City economists expected [they had forecast a 0.2% contraction].

The Office for National Statistics reports that UK GDP rose by 0.1% in November, a slowdown on the 0.5% growth recorded in October.

But “looking at the broader picture”, the ONS adds, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.

Updated

Here’s Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, on the UK GDP data due in around 10 minutes…

This morning we get the latest November GDP numbers for the UK economy, which are expected to point to the UK economy already being in a modest recession. With the economy contracting in Q3, it is quite likely we might see a further contraction in Q4.

Monthly GDP in October rose by 0.5%, although on a rolling 3-month basis the economy contracted by -0.3%. This rolling 3-month figure isn’t expected to change in this morning’s November numbers with another figure of -0.3%, while the monthly number is expected to decline by -0.2%.

All sectors of the economy are forecast to show a contraction in November, manufacturing and industrial production are expected to slow by -0.2%, construction output by -0.3% and index of services of -0.1%.

This is perhaps why the pound has underperformed in recent days, in that markets feel the Bank of England doesn’t have as much scope to raise rates given how fragile the UK economy appears to be, with both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank considered to have more headroom.

Updated

Introduction: UK's November GDP report coming up

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

We’re about to learn how well, or badly, the UK economy fared in November, as the recession looms.

The Office for National Statistics is due to release its GDP monthly estimate for November at 7am. Economists predict the UK economy shrank by around 0.2% in November, after better-than-expected growth of 0.5% in October.

A fall in GDP in November wouldn’t officially put the UK into a technical recession – defined as shrinking for two consecutive quarters – but it could signal that one is close.

UK GDP did fall in the third quarter of 2022, by 0.3%, so a contraction in the October-December quarter would mean a recession (we’ll get Q4 data in a month’s time).

Soaring energy prices have hit the economy, weakening consumer spending as the cost of living crisis left consumers with less to spend.

Alvin Tan of RBC Capital Markets told clients:

We expect that GDP contracted again in November.

Retail sales have provided a good guide to the pattern of activity of late, and they fell by 0.4% m/m in November.

Analysts at investment bank Nomura also predicted a month-on-month contraction in November, saying:

“We think that GDP is due a fall bearing in mind the weaker surveys and higher inflation, and as such forecast a 0.3 per cent m-o-m drop in November.”

UK housebuilders have warned this week that demand slowed last autumn, as the turmoil following the mini-budget.

The agenda

  • 7am GMT: UK GDP report for November

  • 7am GMT: UK trade report for November

  • 9am GMT: Full Year GDP growth report for Germany

  • 10am GMT: Eurozone trade balance for November

  • 3pm GMT: University of Michigan index of US consumer sentiment

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