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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

UK house prices tipped to rise by up to 4% in 2026 as affordability improves – as it happened

An estate agents window in Richmond, London.
An estate agents window in Richmond, London. Photograph: Jill Mead/The Guardian

Closing post

Time to wrap up…

House prices in the UK could rise by as much as 4% next year but getting on the property ladder may become slightly less difficult, according to forecasts from the lender Nationwide.

Robert Gardner, the chief economist at the building society, said prices were likely to increase by 2-4%.

He said:

“We expect housing market activity to strengthen a little further, as affordability improves gradually via income growth outpacing house price growth and a further modest decline in interest rates.”

Nationwide also reported that the North-South house price gap narrowed this year.

Rival lender Halifax predicted a slightly smaller rise, of 1%-3% next year.

And trade body UK Finance forecast a rise in mortgage lending next year, but a drop in transactions.

The predictions came as new data showed first-time buyers are taking out larger mortgages than ever before as rising wages and looser affordability tests allow them to buy properties that were previously beyond their budget.

The UK’s financial watchdog said it would consult on changes to the mortgage market, including simplifying mortgage rules to allow more flexible products that better reflect different working patterns and income levels at various stages of life.

The FCA is aiming to improve advice to help people “confidently plan for later life”, while encouraging the use of AI to help brokers provide “better and faster advice”.

In other news…

The chances of the European trucking industry hitting zero emissions targets are “dire”, an industry body has warned, as it emerged that only a tiny amount of lorries delivering goods in the EU are electric.

The private equity owners of the AA, Britain’s biggest roadside recovery business, are looking for a potential £5bn sale or stock market flotation, while the owners of the rival RAC are targeting a London listing with a similar valuation.

Over on Wall Street, stocks have opened slightly higher as investors brace for a barrage of economic data that could set the course for interest rates next year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 20 points, or 0.04%, at 48,477.91, while the broader S&P 500 index is flat.

Banks are rallying, lifting the S&P 500 financial sector to an all-time high.

Tomorrow’s delayed US jobs report may give us an indication if America’s labor market is cooling, which could tee up rate cuts in 2026.

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