Closing post
Time to wrap up…
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose by as much as 5% to $118.43 a barrel after Donald Trump told allies to buy US jet fuel or “take it” from the strait of Hormuz.
The US president wrote on his social media platform Truth Social:
I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.”
UK house prices increased at the fastest rate in almost 18 months in March, although surging mortgage rates amid the Iran war are likely to lead to a market slowdown, according to Nationwide.
The UK’s biggest building society said the price of a typical UK home increased by 0.9% month on month in March, the largest increase since December 2024.
The increase, which compares with a 0.3% rise recorded in February and is ahead of economists’ expectations of 0.6% growth, means the average price of a UK home now stands at £277,186. Annual house price growth picked up to 2.2% in March, from 1% in February.
Unilever has agreed to combine its food business with US-based McCormick in a $44.8bn deal that will give the Marmite-to-Hellmann’s mayonnaise owner majority control of a food empire.
Under the agreement, McCormick will pay London-listed Unilever $15.7bn in cash and the equivalent of $29.1bn in shares for most of the Anglo-Dutch company’s food arm.
Unilever will control 65% of the new spin-off, which will combine brands such as Knorr and Pot Noodle with McCormick’s condiments and spices including French’s mustard, Old Bay seasoning and Cholula hot sauce.
However, the combined company will be led by McCormick executives, with senior management representation from the ranks of Unilever’s food business.
US stock market opens higher
The US stock market has opened higher today, with the blue-chip S&P 500 share index rising by 1.2% at the open. The tech heavy Nasdaq composite index is up 1.5%.
Meanwhile Brent crude oil is now trading up 5.2% to $118.6 a barrel, within touching distance of $119.50 a barrel, its previous high since the war in Iran started a month ago.
Oil price tops $117 a barrel
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, is now up 4% to $117.50 a barrel after Donald Trump told allies to buy US jet fuel or “take it” from the strait of Hormuz.
The US president wrote on his social media platform Truth Social:
I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.”
Meanwhile US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has told reporters this afternoon that the US military has “more and more options” for the war in Iran. He reiterated Trump’s tirade against allies for not joining the conflict:
We will make sure Iran is it knows that very clearly is not just the United States of America problem set.
But it’s not just us. So ultimately, I think other countries should pay attention when the president speaks. He’s proven that when he speaks, he means something.
And he’s pointing out, you know, you might might want to start learning how to fight for yourself. It’s something some of us have been saying for quite some time.
You can’t just have flags. You have to have formations. You can’t just have a few ships. You have enough to affect change. Those things matter in a dangerous world with ascendant adversaries.
Updated
Unilever seals $60bn deal with US rival McCormick
Unilever, the consumer goods business behind Hellman’s mayonnaise and Horlicks, has sealed the deal to merge its food business with its US rival McCormick.
The deal will combine McCormick with Unilever’s food unit, in a move that will create a business worth more than $60bn.
Unilever will receive $15.7bn in cash as part of the deal, and the company and its shareholders will control 65% of the new business.
The deal will exclude Unilever’s operations in India, Nepal and Portugal; its lifestyle and nutrition business; its Buavita fruit juice business; and its Lipton ready-to-drink business.
Brendan Foley, chairman, president and chief executive at McCormick, said:
This transformative combination accelerates McCormick’s strategy and reinforces our continued focus on flavour. The Unilever Foods business is one we have long admired, with a portfolio that complements our existing business, capabilities and long-term vision. Together, we will be better positioned to accelerate growth in attractive categories. This combination will create a diversified flavor leader with a robust growth profile that remains differentiated by its focus on flavoring calories while others compete for them.”
Fernando Fernández, chief executive of Unilever, said:
For Unilever, this transaction is another decisive step in sharpening our portfolio and accelerating our strategy towards high-growth categories as a €39 billion pureplay HPC company with a proven sector-leading growth profile. We are unlocking trapped value through a growth-led separation of Foods, creating a scaled, global flavor powerhouse.
By combining Unilever Foods’ iconic leading brands and global reach with McCormick’s exceptional portfolio, category expertise and capabilities, we are establishing a focused, high-quality business with significant top line growth and value creation potential.”
This is a combination built on strong strategic and cultural alignment, providing exciting opportunities for our people and ensuring our Foods brands continue to thrive as part of a global flavor leader. Our retained ownership stake reflects our conviction in the strength of the combined company and its future prospects.”
Trump tells UK: "go get your own oil!"
Trump has singled out the UK in a warning that countries should either buy its jet fuel from the US or “go get your own oil”.
He warned that other countries should “start learning how to fight for yourself” because America “won’t be there to help you anymore”.
The US president wrote in a Truth Social post:
All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.
You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT.
The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, is up 1.86% to $114.88 a barrel today.
Microsoft faces competition probe in UK over business software
Microsoft is facing an investigation by the UK’s competition watchdog over its business software ecosystem across Windows, Word, Excel, Teams and Copilot.
The Competition and Markets Authority has said it will launch a strategic market status investigation into Microsoft, starting in May.
The regulator, which noted that thousands of UK businesses and public sector organisations use Microsoft software, said it is concerned that the company’s use of software licensing reduces competition in cloud services.
It said in a statement that the probe “would also provide a route to ensuring a level playing field among providers at a critical moment, as AI-driven innovation reshapes competition in productivity software”.
The CMA added that both Microsoft and Amazon had agreed to set out actions on “cloud egress fees” (charges levied by cloud providers to move data out of their network) and interoperability to support greater choice for businesses and public sector organisations. It believes this will reduce the cost and effort for UK customers when using more than one cloud provider.
Sarah Cardell, chief executive of the CMA, said:
We’re using the regime in a flexible, pragmatic way to deliver real impact, as quickly as possible, for UK customers. This announcement shows we’re not just responding to today’s concerns but getting ahead of emerging issues too. Cloud remains central to our approach – we’ve seen real progress through our engagement with Microsoft and Amazon to drive meaningful improvements on egress fees and interoperability and we expect more action from them over the coming months.
At the same time, we’re taking action now, deciding to launch an investigation into Microsoft’s business software ecosystem. An SMS designation would enable us to tackle remaining concerns around Microsoft’s licensing practices in cloud and would also enable us to ensure a level playing field as AI is rapidly embedded into everyday business software tools.
Through this package of actions, we’re driving changes across cloud and business software to make sure these markets are competitive and resilient for UK businesses and the public sector.”
US gasoline tops $4 per gallon as fears grow Trump has 'lost control’ of Iran war
Over in the US, fuel prices have now surpassed $4 per gallon (£3.03) for the first time in four years, a milestone that is expected to pile more pressure on Donald Trump to find a resolution to the war in Iran.
The nationwide average hit about $4.02 on Tuesday, according to data from the AAA, compared with $2.98 just a month ago. It is now at its highest level since August 2022.
Drivers in some states are paying far higher than the national average: in California, drivers are paying an average of $5.89 per gallon. In Washington state, the average is $5.35.
It comes as fears grow around Trump’s handling of the conflict in the Middle East. This morning the City bank Peel Hunt warned that the US president appeared to have “lost control” of the situation.
Kallum Pickering, chief economist at the bank, wrote:
Donald Trump may have lost control of the situation, which makes a quick (unilateral) resolution harder and increases the risk that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked even once fighting ends.”
He added the energy shock “appears to be spreading from west to east – with shutdowns already in place in parts of Asia and Australia. If Europe is next, this will amplify global recession fears.”
Updated
Cost of filling up a family car hits £100 for first time since 2022
It now costs £100 to fill up a typical 55-litre family car, as the crisis in Iran drives up fuel prices in the UK.
The average price of a litre of diesel at UK forecourts on Tuesday was 182.77p, according to the services company the RAC. That is 28% higher compared with before the war began, at 142.4p on February 28 before the war began.
Average petrol prices are now at 152.83p per litre, a rise of 15% from 132.8p over the same period.
Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, said:
Diesel has now climbed to an average of 182.77p a litre which means the cost of filling a typical 55-litre family car has breached £100 (£100.52) for the first time since early December 2022.
With petrol now at 152.83p, a full tank is setting drivers back £84. Unleaded has increased 20p a litre since the start of the conflict and diesel by 40p, making a full tank £11 and £22 more expensive respectively.
Separate analysis from the RAC Foundation suggests that drivers in the UK are facing more than £500m in higher fuel prices due to the oil crisis.
It estimated that pressure on pump prices since February 28 has already led to drivers paying an extra £544m in petrol and diesel (made up of £409m for diesel and £135m for petrol).
Steve Gooding, director of the RAC Foundation, said:
The pump price premium paid by drivers since the war started now totals well north of half a billion pounds and is currently rising by about £37 million a day.
At this rate the war will have cost motorists at least a billion pounds at the forecourt within the next couple of weeks.
He added that three-quarters of the “war premium” is paid by diesel drivers, partly because more diesel than petrol is sold in the UK. It also reflects the record gap between the prices of petrol and diesel now seen at the pumps, he said.
Updated
Fitness band maker Whoop hits $10bn valuation
Whoop, the company behind the popular fitness bands, has hit a valuation of more than $10bn in its latest fundraising round.
The company, which was founded in 2012 and is backed by footballer Cristiano Ronaldo and basketball player LeBron James, raised $575m in a round led by the New-York based venture capital firm Collaborative Fund.
The fundraising was also backed by the Qatar Investment Authrotiy, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company and Affinity Partners, the private equity firm led by Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law.
Whoop’s fitness bands monitor exercise, sleep, stress and heart health, with devices bundled into memberships that an range from $149 to $359 per year in the US.
The latest fundraise means that Whoop’s valuation has almost tripled since 2021, when it was valued at $3.6bn after a $200m funding round.
Wall Street futures are up ahead of the market open in the US, as investors welcome a report that signals a potential de-escalation in the Middle East.
Futures for the S&P 500 are up 0.9%, while futures for the Nasdaq are up 0.8%.
It comes after the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that President Donald Trump told aides he was willing to end the US military campaign against Iran, even if the strait of Hormuz stays closed.
Regulator rejects Heathrow's plan to increase landing fees
The UK aviation regulator has partially rejected plans by Heathrow to significantly raise its landing fees to fund a multi-billion pound upgrade, arguing the airport can still invest without steep hikes to ticket prices.
The Civil Aviation Authority said the average charge per passenger should rise from £28.40 to £28.80 between 2027 and 2031.
Last year, Heathrow proposed a 17% increase to £33.26, which resulted in criticism from airlines who said it would lead to higher ticket prices for passengers.
The CAA said its average charge per passenger would instead rise by 1%. That increase is £5.40, or 16%, lower than the changes proposed by Heathrow but significantly higher – £5.80 or 25% – than the changes wanted by the airlines.
Eurozone inflation jumps to 2.5% in March
Eurozone inflation jumped to 2.5% in March, as rising oil and gas prices pushed it ahead of target.
It is a stark rise against a rate of 1.9% in February, but below expectations of 2.6%.
Energy costs are expected to have risen by 4.9% in March, according to official estimates from Eurostat, compared with a 3.1% fall in February.
When stripping out energy, inflation fell slightly from 2.4% in February to 2.3% in March, Eurostat said.
Updated
Personal computer maker Raspberry Pi is the standout in the FTSE All-Share today, with its share price surging by 26%.
The company said its annual sales rose 25% to $323m (£244m) due to demand from US and Chinese customers. Pre-tax profit was up 63% to $26.5m.
Over in the FTSE 100, the best performer is the miner Antofagasta, which is up 2.7%. JD Sports Fashion is a close second, up 2.3%. The telecoms company Airtel Africa is the worst performer on the index today, down 1.8%.
While energy prices are widely expected to rise this summer, Martin McCluskey, minister for energy consumers, has put out a statement this morning reiterating that, at least for the April to July period, bills will fall.
Action taken by this government on bills will see the energy price cap coming down from tomorrow. This reduction is fixed until the end of June, protecting millions of households with lower bills this spring.
Tackling the affordability crisis is our number one priority and I know many families will be thinking about how events in the Middle East might impact the cost of living at home.
We will continue to fight people’s corner through this crisis and, as the energy secretary has said, if it’s necessary to intervene, we will.”
Energy bills forecast to rise by £288 a year from July
Household energy bills could rise by £288 a year starting from July, as rising gas prices triggered by the war in Iran threaten to push up Ofgem’s price cap.
Leading forecaster Cornwall Insight has predicted that the energy regulator’s price cap from July to September will be £1,929 for a typical dual fuel household. That represents a £288 rise, or 18%, compared with April’s cap, which will come into effect tomorrow.
The new estimate for July is however slightly lower than previous expectations of a £332 rise, as forecasters said there had been a “partial steadying in wholesale markets” after a pause in energy infrastructure strikes.
However, Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said energy markets were still experiencing a kind of volatility not seen since 2022.
While prices may have calmed a little over the past few days, prior to the conflict our forecasts pointed to a relatively stable price cap through the summer, now we are forecasting rises of 18%.
With Ofgem’s price cap announcement just weeks away, infrastructure damage and continued disruption to marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are limiting the potential for any meaningful wholesale price fall. As a result, some of the increase is already effectively baked in. A rise in July is pretty much unavoidable, but how high prices go remains to be seen,
There is some relief in the timing, summer is when energy demand is at its lowest, which should soften the impact on household energy expenditure.
If higher wholesale prices continue, it will be the effects on the October cap that have the most impact, and that is when the question of government support for households is likely to be revisited.
Updated
Unilever nears £11.9bn deal to merge food business with McCormick
Unilever, the consumer goods group behind Hellmann’s mayonnaise and Horlicks, has said it is in late stage talks to merge its food business with its US rival, McCormick.
The FTSE 100 company said in a statement this morning that it was in “advanced discussions” with McCormick, which makes Cholula hot sauce and French’s mustard, as well as other spices and seasoning brands.
A deal is expected to involve combining Unilever’s food business with McCormick for about $15.7bn (£11.9bn) of cash upfront, as well as equity in McCormick. It means Unilever and its investors would own 65% of the combined company once the deal is complete.
Unilever said that the deal could be reached today but there was “no certainty that a transaction will be agreed”.
Nevertheless, its shares have ticked up 0.9% this morning, and McCormick is up 2.3% in pre-market trading in the US.
The company released the statement after a story by The Wall Street Journal, which reported that the deal would create a new food business worth roughly $60bn, including debt.
Last year Unilever spun off its ice cream business to create the Magnum Ice Cream Company, which it floated with a primary listing in Amsterdam and secondary listings in New York and UK.
UK grocery inflation at 4.3% in March
People are facing a jump in a raft of household bills next month – and food prices are rising too, according to the researcher Worldpanel by Numerator.
It found that UK grocery inflation came in at 4.3% in the four weeks to March 22. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as fresh unprocessed meat, skin care and chocolate confectionery, it said, and falling fastest in chilled butter and spreads, household paper and sugar confectionery.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel by Numerator, says conflict in the Middle East is likely to drive up price rises even further:
Financial anxiety among British consumers was already running high before the conflict began. And with grocery inflation likely to increase and fuel costs rising sharply, the conditions that make shoppers feel vulnerable are only intensifying.
Fast rises in chocolate prices will be unwelcome news for those looking to pick up an Easter egg this week – which now costs an average of £3.27, up 9% compared with last year, Worldpanel found.
It has also been a good month for Waitrose in particular – sales grew 5.6%, its fastest rate in five years. Its market share increased to 4.7%, up from 4.6% last year and its highest level in three years. Ocado was the fastest growing grocer again, with sales up 12.3%, although it only accounts for 2.2% of the market. Tesco has retained the biggest market share, at 28%.
Updated
European markets are subdued this morning: the UK’s FTSE 100 is pretty flat rising only slightly by 0.1%. France’s Cac 40 and Germany’s Dax are also both up by 0.1%. The Italian FTSE MIB is down 0.3%.
Oil prices are edging higher, with the international benchmark Brent crude rising by 0.6% to $113.43 a barrel.
Updated
Lenders shares rise after car finance scandal compensation scheme announced
Shares in lenders involved in the car finance scandal are rising this morning, after the City regulator released the final details of its plans for a compensation scheme last night.
Lloyds Banking Group is up 0.5% in early trading. Barclays is up 0.7%, and the specialist lender Close Brothers is up 0.8%. Santander, which is listed in Spain, is also up 0.8%.
The Financial Conduct Authority announced details last night for its redress programme for victims of the car finance scandal, who were overcharged for loans as a result of commission payments between lenders and car dealers.
It has narrowed down the number of loan agreements eligible for payouts from 14m to 12.1m contracts – however that tweak, which covers loans agreed between 2007 and 2024, is expected to result in a higher payout for each contract, up from £700 to £830, including interest.
Updated
Turning back to house prices: most regions in the UK grew in the first quarter of the year, apart from outer South East (down 0.7% year-on-year) and East Anglia (down 0.4%), according to Nationwide.
But on the other side of the spectrum, Northern Ireland has continued to outperform, with house prices up 9.5% year-on-year in the first quarter – more than six times the rate recorded by the UK as a whole.
Robert Gardner, chief economist at the lender, adds:
England saw a further slowing in annual house price growth to 0.9%, from 1.2% in Q4. Average prices in Northern England (comprising North, North West, Yorkshire & The Humber, East Midlands and West Midlands) were up 1.5% year on year, with the North West (which includes areas such as Cheshire, Lancashire & Greater Manchester) remaining the top performing region in England – with prices up 3.3% year on year.
By property type, detached properties performed the strongest, with prices up 2.4% year-on-year over the last 12 months. Terraced properties grew by 2.1%, with semi-detached slightly weaker at 1.5%. Flats fell by 0.5%.
Updated
Confirmation that the UK “limped over the line” at the end of 2025 will not be a surprise to many, says Jonathan Raymond investment manager at Quilter Cheviot, but it shows just how exposed the economy was entering 2026.
Growth was already fragile, and while there were tentative signs of life at the start of the year, the latest bout of geopolitical turmoil has quickly snuffed them out.
The UK has narrowly avoided the recession some feared would have arrived at some point in the past 18 months, but that should not be mistaken for strength. This is an economy stuck in stagnation.
After a promising start to the year, momentum faded as businesses paused investment in response to tax changes and households grew increasingly cautious about what comes next. Inflation, meanwhile, has remained stubbornly above target, keeping interest rates higher for longer and tightening the squeeze on activity.
Inflation held steady at 3% in February, which was in line with expectations but still well above the government’s 2% target.
Looking ahead, higher energy prices are beginning to impact economic activity, raising the risk of softer demand as consumers and households retrench just as inflationary pressures re‑emerge.
…For the Bank of England, this presents an uncomfortable trade‑off. In normal circumstances, prolonged stagnation would argue for looser policy to support growth. But with inflation likely to rise again, the scope to cut rates is limited.
Markets may be overestimating how far policy needs to tighten with expectations for at least 2 quarter-point interest rate rises this year, but the Bank will have to remain agile in responding to this energy shock if it is to prevent today’s weakness from hardening into something more lasting.”
Introduction: UK house prices rise again in March
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Nationwide, the building society, is kicking the day off by reporting that UK house prices have risen by 0.9% in March compared with the prior month, and by 2.2% on an annual basis.
Robert Gardner, the chief economist at the lender, says that the pick up in growth suggests the market has regained momentum after a slow end to 2025. But this could be the calm before the storm, he says:
The sharp rise in global energy prices in response to developments in the Middle East represents a significant shock to the global economy, clouding the outlook.
In the near term, UK economic growth is likely to be slower and inflation higher than previously expected, although ultimately the impact will depend on the duration of the shock as well as the policy response. The outlook for interest rates is particularly uncertain and dependent on whether the demand or supply side of the economy is more adversely affected.
In the first quarter of the year, the average price of a house in the UK was £274,930, up 1.5% compared with same period in 2025.
Gardner adds that interest rates have changed dramatically since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Towards the end of March, three interest rate increases were priced in over the next twelve months, compared to two rate cuts being anticipated before the strikes on Iran. This shift has resulted in a sharp rise in longer term interest rates (swap rates) that underpin fixed rate mortgage pricing.
If sustained, this could reverse some of the improvement in housing affordability that has taken place in recent years. With consumer sentiment also likely to be dented by the uncertain outlook and the prospect of rising energy costs, housing market activity is likely to soften.
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at the estate agent Knight Frank, adds that the fact mortgage offers last for six months means the effect of higher borrowing costs will filter into the market this spring and summer, which could put “downward pressure on prices and transaction volumes”.
The longer-term impact hinges on the intensity and length of the conflict. That said, one mitigating factor is the amount of equity in the system and the fact more homes are now owned outright than with a mortgage.”
Elsewhere this morning, official stats confirm that the UK economy barely grew at the end of last year.
The Office for National Statistics confirmed that gross domestic product grew by just 0.1% in the October to December quarter. That followed growth of 0.1% in the preceding three months too.
However, the ONS did revise annual growth for the whole of 2025 up slightly, from 1.3% to 1.4%.
The figures for the final quarter are not very inspiring, but the Treasury has put out this statement:
In an uncertain world we have the right economic plan. The decisions we have taken have put us in a better position to protect the country’s finances and family finances from global instability.
We were the fastest growing European economy in the G7 last year and now we’re going even further by using regional growth, AI and a closer relationship with the EU to get our economy growing.”
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at the audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, takes a more critical stance:
GDP growth for Q4 was unchanged at 0.1% q/q, suggesting that the economy entered the current crisis with very little momentum, even though growth in 2025 as a whole was revised up slightly.
Of course, backward looking is an understatement for Q4 data, the outlook for growth is now materially weaker for this year and 2027 as higher energy prices will squeeze real incomes and further weigh on an already weak employment market.
The agenda
8am BST: Kantar grocery inflation figures
10am BST: Eurozone CPI for March
