Tory government ‘worst in postwar era’, claims expert study – as it happened

Composite of five Tory prime ministers: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak Composite: House of Commons / PA

5.54pm BST

Afternoon summary

• John Swinney has doubled down on the Scottish National party’s core commitment to independence, telling voters that the general election is an opportunity to “intensify the pressure” on Westminster for a referendum.

• A police officer working as part of the prime minister’s close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, Chris Mason from the BBC is reporting.

• A study of the record of the Tory government over the past 14 years has concluded “it is hard to find a comparable period in history of a Conservative, or other, government which achieved so little, or which left the country at its conclusion in a more troubling state.” (See 1.51pm.)

• “Red wall” Conservatives candidates are becoming increasingly dismayed and disillusioned with the central party for in effect cutting them adrift, as the Tory campaign focuses instead on defending safer seats in the south of England.

• Three MRP polls have been published this afternoon, all suggesting Labour is on course to win by a landslide, but offering very different figures for what its majority might be. More in Common has it on course to win with a majority of 162, YouGov suggests a majority of 200, and Savanta says the majority could be 382. (See 5.36pm.)

5.36pm BST

Three MRP polls published, suggesting Labour on course for majority of 162, or 382, or 200

There is better news for the Conservative party from YouGov. They have also published an MRP poll this afternoon (their second of the campaign), and it suggests Labour is on course for a majority of 200 (up from 194 when it published its last one).

Savanta has Labour getting a majority of 382. (See 5.23pm) The More in Common one, also out this afternoon, has Labour heading for a majority of 162. (See 4.26pm.)

This is what YouGov says in its summary of its poll.

Labour – 425 seats: The most seats in the party’s history; Labour is poised to win the most seats in each area of Great Britain

Conservatives – 108 seats: 14 ministers who attend cabinet set to lose their seats including Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Mel Stride, Alex Chalk, and Mark Harper

Liberal Democrats – 67 seats: Party set to comfortably overtake Conservatives in South West

SNP – 20 seats: Party set to lose half its seats but leader Stephen Flynn set to be returned to Westminster

Reform – 5 seats: Nigel Farage, Richard Tice, Lee Anderson, Stephen Conlay and Rupert Lowe all projected to win

Plaid Cymru– 4 seats: Including beating Government Chief Whip Simon Hart in Caerfyrddin

Green – 2 seats: Party set to hold Brighton Pavilion and gain Bristol Central from Labour

Labour projected to beat Jeremy Corbyn in close-fought contest in Islington North