The UK could experience its first large-scale blackout in decades this winter if gas shortages combine with particularly cold weather. That’s according to the government’s “reasonable worst case scenario”, a warning which was dismissed by a No 10 spokesperson.
For blackouts to happen, many different factors would have to line up. The UK has control of some of these factors, such as the day-to-day running of the energy system or policies to try and reduce demand for gas and electricity at peak hours (the two are linked since about a third of the UK’s electricity is generated by burning natural gas).
Other factors are only controlled over much longer timescales and so won’t have much impact this winter – we can’t insulate millions of homes overnight, or suddenly build new power plants. And then there are factors that are largely beyond the control of those charged with keeping the lights on in the UK: climate change, weather patterns, a major gas-producing country going to war.
