Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has all but conceded he will lose the blue-ribbon seat of Kooyong to independent Monique Ryan.
Mr Frydenberg suffered a swing against him in excess of 10 per cent, with more than half of votes counted in the inner-east Melbourne seat late on Saturday.
Alongside his wife Amie, the deputy Liberal leader admitted prospects of holding the seat were slim.
“There’s still thousands of postal votes to be counted. So while it’s mathematically possible that we win in Kooyong, it’s definitely difficult,” Mr Frydenberg told the crowd at the Grace Park Hawthorn Club.
Mr Frydenberg won the Melbourne seat in 2010 but saw his margin dwindle to 5.7 per cent in 2019.
The current projected swing leaves him trailing Dr Ryan by 4.4 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.
Polling had indicated the seat was under serious threat, with Mr Frydenberg standing at pre-poll centres instead of campaigning elsewhere in the final weeks.
If ousted, he would become the first sitting treasurer to lose his seat since Labor’s Ted Theodore in 1931.
“To the people of Australia I say thank you. Thank you for giving me the privilege to be your treasurer,” Mr Frydenberg said.
“Dignity is what drives me, integrity is what drives me and serving my community is what drives me. There’s a lot left in this tank.”
Mr Frydenberg was swamped by sombre supporters at his election party and warmly embraced former Victorian premier Ted Baillieu before leaving.
Not long after, Dr Ryan’s campaign party was in raptures when the former paediatric neurologist addressed her supporters at the Auburn Hotel in Hawthorn.
The Climate 200-backed challenger campaigned on climate action, the establishment of a federal integrity commission, safety for women and healthcare reform.
“We have walked the streets in pairs and we have knocked on 55,000 doors,” she said.
“We have chopped a lot of wood and we’ve carried a lot of water.”
Robert Baillieu, the son of the ex-premier and one of Dr Ryan’s 2000-odd supporters, was seen celebrating during the speech with a rainbow flag raised above his head.
“Kooyong is never going to be quite the same again. We’ve come together to create change in the last six months,” Dr Ryan said.
In his speech to concede the election to Labor, Liberal leader Scott Morrison described Mr Frydenberg as a friend and a brother.
“I want to thank Josh for his tremendous economic leadership and support over the time that we have been in government,” he said in Sydney.
Kooyong has been a Liberal seat since 1945 and counts former prime minister Robert Menzies and ex-opposition leader Andrew Peacock among its past MPs.
