MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC on ESPN 51.
UFC on ESPN 51 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 4-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 75-59-4
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive. My goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.com. If you’d like more detailed analysis, check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So without further ado …
Josh Fremd (-350) vs. Jamie Pickett (+280)
Even though there were a plethora of lighter-weight fights on the prelims, the UFC matchmakers decided to kick off the main card with a middleweight matchup between Josh Fremd and Jamie Pickett.
I’m kind of surprised to see Pickett still on the roster at this point, but I’m also kind of happy to see the powers that be gave him another opportunity considering the foul he sustained en route to being served up to Bo Nickal.
Still, I’m not so sure I like Pickett’s chances here.
Aside from the fact Pickett looks visibly uncomfortable inside the octagon, Fremd’s forms of offense seem to line up perfectly with what tends to finish Pickett.
I’ll take Fremd to find an opportunistic front choke after landing some hard knees in round two.
Tafon Nchukwi (-152) vs. A.J. Dobson (+128)
Despite having a fight at 185 pounds going down just before this, the UFC matchmakers saw fit to double up on middleweight matchups by putting Tafon Nchukwi and A.J. Dobson on the ESPN portion of the card.
Dobson’s speed and potential improvements make him a live dog in this spot, but I still haven’t seen dynamic enough offense or a reliable enough process to pick him with any confidence.
Add in the fact that Dobson recently switched up his camp, and I’ll side with Nchukwi’s more consistent muay Thai combinations and clinch offerings to earn him a decision win.
Polyana Viana (+154) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-184)
Serving as the lone women’s bout on the main card is a strawweight encounter between Polyana Viana and Iasmin Lucindo.
Viana, who seems to be finally coming into her own, feels like a live underdog in this spot. She showed improved striking in her last outing opposite Jinh Yu Frey and always keeps opportunistic submissions in her back pocket.
That said, I’m not sure that Viana’s offense is as consistent as Lucindo’s.
Lucindo’s aggression has cost her at times, but I suspect that her striking volume and combinations will help her win on the scorecards if she’s able to avoid the early scares from Viana.
I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Lucindo to win by decision.
Khalil Rountree (-178) vs. Chris Daukaus (+150)
Filling out the main card is a light heavyweight matchup between Khalil Rountree and Chris Daukaus.
Rountree, who is a ranked light heavyweight, will be defending his spot from Daukaus – a former ranked heavyweight.
Even though part of me suspects that Daukaus flips the script and wrestles his way to a decision win, it’s hard to pick a fighter to do something that they’ve never done before (at least on the big stage).
Perhaps it’s my admitted bias toward Rountree as someone who’s known him since his heavyweight days, but I think the southpaw striker is a terrible matchup for Daukaus on paper.
The pick is Rountree by first-round knockout.
Hakeem Dawodu (-230) vs. Cub Swanson (+190)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features a striker’s delight at 145 pounds between Hakeem Dawodu and Cub Swanson.
Swanson is coming off of a failed flirtation at bantamweight, while Dawodu will be looking to bounce back from a featherweight loss that he sustained in September of last year.
Although Swanson carries a lot of the stylistic attributes that have traditionally troubled Dawodu, I’m not sure I can count on the WEC veteran’s game and body to hold up at this point of his career.
Add in the fact that Swanson’s style seems to particularly struggle against competent kickers, and it’s hard not to see Dawodu breaking his decision streak this Saturday.
The pick is Dawodu by Round 2 TKO.
Vicente Luque (+100) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (-118)
The main event on ESPN features a potential welterweight war between Vicente Luque and Rafael dos Anjos.
With the elephant in the room being the TBI (brain bleed) that Luque sustained a year ago, I can’t help but stress my wishes for both fighters to be healthy after this affair.
However, when viewing this fight from a stylistic standpoint, I think dos Anjos will have some undeniable edges.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, Luque, in spite of officially standing 3-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws, seems to struggle with left-sided strikes in both victory and defeat.
🪡 #TheSouthpawReport for #UFCVegas78:
• Vicente Luque, who faces RDA, is 3-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (W: Chiesa, Turner, Barberena; L: Edwards, Neal)
Luque prods w/lead hand & leg kicks to draw exchanges and land heavy counters but left-sided strikes are his common culprit pic.twitter.com/eZ30C7CZCm
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) August 11, 2023
Dos Anjos may not hit as hard as one Geoff Neal, but the former lightweight champion didn’t make my top 10 UFC southpaws list for nothing.
Add in the fact that dos Anjos is 14-4 in UFC fights where secures a minimum of one takedown, and I suspect we see his pressuring style thrive inside of the smaller octagon this Saturday.
The pick is dos Anjos by decision.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 51.
