MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 51.
UFC on ESPN 51 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
Vicente Luque (21-9-1 MMA, 14-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 75.5″
- Last fight: Knockout loss to Geoff Neal (Aug. 6, 2022)
- Camp: Kill Cliff FC (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Luta Livre black belt
+ Amateur kickboxing accolades
+ 11 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Consistently attacks the legs
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Scrambles well to feet
+ Slick submissions in transit
^ Dangerous from font-headlock
+/- 3-2 against UFC-level southpaws
Rafael dos Anjos (32-14 MMA, 21-12 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 38 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: Submission win over Bryan Barberena (Dec. 3, 2022)
- Camp: RDA Academy/Nova Uniao (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple Brazilian jiu-jitsu accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Disciplined pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing
+ Hard and accurate Thai kicks
^ Variates well to the body
+ Good takedowns against the fence
^ 14-4 when scoring at least one
+ Strong positional grappler
^ Smashes and passes effectively
+ Solid getup ability
Point of interest: Lookout for the left
The main event in Las Vegas features a fight between two welterweights who are familiar with left-sided strikes.
An inherent pressure fighter, Rafael dos Anjos will steadily stalk his opponents, working behind prodding jabs and feints until finding an opportunity to unleash his potent power shots. Whether dos Anjos is variating hard left hands or kicks to the head and body, he usually counterbalances his attack with a sneaky right hook up high.
Accustomed to having to slip and rip on taller opposition, dos Anjos does well at following his opponent’s strike retractions back into the pocket – a place where he can use his power to bomb from below.
Dos Anjos has also improved on his head movement and boxing fundamentals since his stint with noted striking coach Jason Parillo, further improving the flow of his overall offense. If dos Anjos finds his way into the clinch, the former champion seamlessly frames for knees and elbows while maintaining a strong posture.
That said, dos Anjos is not beyond being caught by hard hooks in exchanges and will need to respect the counters of Vicente Luque.
Indoctrinated in martial arts from a young age, Luque demonstrates his karate base through his natural sense of distance management and quick kicking abilities. Whether he’s working from orthodox or switching to southpaw, the 31-year-old can either deliver with finesse up high or hack Thai-style kicks down low at the drop of a dime.
Since splitting his camps between his home base of Cerrado MMA in Brasilia and Kill Cliff FC in South Florida, Luque’s skills have only improved.
When in open-stance affairs, the spirit of Luque’s game doesn’t change much. Whether he’s prodding with his lead or picking away with leg kicks, Luque is ultimately trying to encourage pocket exchanges that allow him to land hard hooking counters.
🪡 #TheSouthpawReport for #UFCVegas78:
• Vicente Luque, who faces RDA, is 3-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (W: Chiesa, Turner, Barberena; L: Edwards, Neal)
Luque prods w/lead hand & leg kicks to draw exchanges and land heavy counters but left-sided strikes are his common culprit pic.twitter.com/eZ30C7CZCm
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) August 11, 2023
Savvy southpaws and counter fighters have still proven to be a tough stylistic matchup for Luque, but the 14-year pro has been trying to stay more disciplined and defensively responsible amid the chaos that typically takes place in his fights. Even when stunned, Luque is good about staying composed and keeping his eyes open in exchanges, which is, in turn, what allows him to hit devastating counters while in said state.
But given subsequent injuries sustained from his last stoppage loss, I’ll be curious if Luque attempts to fight smarter this time around.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Given the chaos encouraged by the Apex’s smaller octagon, no one should be shocked if one of these fighters elects to take this party to the floor on Saturday.
For my money, that fighter will likely be dos Anjos.
Ever since his closely contested encounter with Gleison Tibau back in the day, we have seen dos Anjos slowly but surely close the gaps in his wrestling ability.
Adding in a level-changing takedown game that fits nicely into his cage-corralling sensibilities, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has proven to be a full-fledged threat. Defensively, dos Anjos has improved his fundamentals from underhooks to hip positioning, as well as wielding an upgraded urgency to his getup game.
Should dos Anjos end up on his back, he’s far from a slouch. The 19-year pro will offer up legitimate threats from kimura sweeps to submissions that Luque will need to be aware of so that he doesn’t fall victim to the positional-based player.
Nevertheless, dos Anjos will still need to be extra mindful of his neck whenever looking to initiate scrambles or look for takedowns.
Having a proven proclivity and proficiency for front chokes, Luque can quickly turn the tide of a takedown attempt or scramble by clamping on to his patented head-and-arm varieties of D’Arce chokes or anacondas.
Luque has also improved his counter wrestling since training stateside, showing the ability to defend or hit reversals in close. And should Luque be the one who shoots in on dos Anjos, then things could get even more interesting.
A strong pressure-passer, Luque’s Luta Livre background shines through in his top game and transitions. But with this bout being scheduled for five rounds, I’m not sure how much energy Luque will be looking to exert in the grappling department.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are ever-so-slightly siding with the former lightweight champion, listing dos Anjos -120 and Luque -102 via FanDuel.
With the elephant in the room being Luque’s sustained TBI (brain bleed) last August, I almost get a strange feeling in the pit of my stomach when trying to prognosticate this fight, as I’m essentially just hoping for both fighters to be healthy when this is over.
Nevertheless, when looking at this pairing from a stylistic perspective, I can’t help but side with dos Anjos given how their games match up.
As seen in the southpaw report provided in a previous section, left-sided strikes to the body and head are clear common culprits that find their way through Luque’s defenses. Dos Anjos may not hit as hard as one Geoff Neal, per se, but the 38-year-old still has power that translates up at welterweight – particularly with his kicks.
Wielding thick legs and giant feet like some sort of enlarged hobbit, dos Anjos throws brutal body kicks to the liver side that will be extra live given Luque’s propensity to lean heavily on a high guard defense.
Don’t get me wrong: Luque will be the much more dangerous fighter on the feet and will also be the more potent finisher in all phases.
However, with dos Anjos being 14-4 in UFC fights where he secures a minimum of one takedown, it’s hard not to like the former champ’s chances as the superior positional grappler in the small cage.
Late-round finishes are on the table for both parties, but I’ll officially side with dos Anjos’ striking and grappling to earn him a competitive but clear win on the scorecards.
