UFC on ESPN 49 predictions: Holly Holm or Mayra Bueno Silva in Las Vegas?

The UFC stays in its Las Vegas home stomping grounds this week with a former champion at the top of the lineup.

UFC on ESPN 49 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

Get pick results from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers, as well as additional analysis, below.

Terrance McKinney vs. Nazim Sadykhov

Terrance McKinney

Records: Terrance McKinney (13-5 MMA, 3-2 UFC) vs. Nazim Sadykhov (8-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC)
Division: Lightweight
Betting odds: Sadykhov -140, McKinney +115
Junkie pick results: McKinney 6, Sadykhov 5
Odds and ends: Our most contentious fight from a picking standpoint opens up the main card. Although McKinney is a slight betting underdog, he has the closest possible edge from our staff pickers. He’s lost two of his past three by knockout. After a contract win on Dana White’s Contender Series, Sadykhov, who trains with Ray Longo and Matt Serra in New York, got a TKO win in his UFC debut in February. He hasn’t lost since his 2018 pro debut and has seven of his eight wins by stoppage.

Chelsea Chandler vs. Norma Dumont

Norma Dumont

Records: Chelsea Chandler (5-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) vs. Norma Dumont (9-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC)
Division: Women’s featherweight
Betting odds: Dumont -145, Chandler +125
Junkie pick results: Dumont 10, Chandler 1
Odds and ends: With no UFC women’s featherweight champion after Amanda Nunes retired, this could be an important fight in the division. It’s long been rumored that the UFC could scrap the weight class entirely – it’s by far the promotion’s least populated and least active division. But an exciting fight from Chandler and Dumont can’t hurt the division’s chances to stay around. Dumont has back-to-back wins and has won five of six since she dropped her UFC debut in 2020. Chandler, a training partner of the Diaz Brothers in Stockton, Calif., won her UFC debut this past October with a first-round TKO of Julija Stoliarenko that earned a $50,000 performance bonus. But despite that promising start to her UFC tenure, only one of our pickers is taking her in a mild upset.

Albert Duraev vs. Junyong Park

Albert Duraev

Records: Albert Duraev (16-4 MMA, 2-1 UFC) vs. Junyong Park (16-5 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
Division: Middleweight
Betting odds: Park -160, Duraev +130
Junkie pick results: Duraev 7, Park 4
Odds and ends: Duraev bounced back from his first UFC loss with a split decision over Chidi Njokuani in March. Even though he’s a slight underdog to Park, he’s got a decent lead in the picks from our staff members. Park has won six of seven and three straight since a Fight of the Night TKO loss to Gregory Rodrigues in October 2021.

Ottman Azaitar vs. Francisco Prado

Ottman Azaitar

Records: Ottman Azaitar (13-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) vs. Francisco Prado (11-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC)
Division: Lightweight
Betting odds: Prado -115, Azaitar -105
Junkie pick results: Azaitar 9, Prado 2
Odds and ends: After a lengthy layoff, Azaitar returned this past November and was knocked out by Matt Frevola midway through the first round. The upset was the first loss of his career after a 13-0 start, so how he rebounds will be interesting. Our staff members seem to have confidence he will. Prado, from Argentina, needs to bounce back, as well. He lost a decision to Jamie Mullarkey in February at UFC 284 in his promotional debut. It was the first loss of his career, as well.

Bassil Hafez vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Jack Della Maddalena

Records: Bassil Hafez (8-3-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (14-2 MMA, 4-0 UFC)
Division: Welterweight
Betting odds: Maddalena -600, Hafez +400
Junkie pick results: Maddalena 10, Hafez 1
Odds and ends: Maddalena had to settle for a short-notice replacement opponent and a fight a week later against newcomer Hafez. Maddalena is the biggest favorite on the entire card. Maddalena is looking to continue the perfect start to his UFC run. The only time he’s gone to a decision in his career came on Dana White’s Contender Series. But since he got to the UFC, he’s 4-0 with four first-round finishes. Hafez will have a tall task trying to break that streak, but he stepped up on short notice to take on the highly touted Maddalena so his trip to Las Vegas last week for UFC 290 – and ultimately a fight cancellation – wouldn’t be wasted.

Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

Holly Holm

Records: Holly Holm (15-6 MMA, 8-6 UFC) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1 MMA, 5-2-1 UFC)
Division: Women’s bantamweight
Betting odds: Holm -175, Silva +145
Junkie pick results: Holm 8, Silva 3
Odds and ends: Holm got back in the win column in March with a unanimous decision over Yana Santos. That gives her three wins in her past four fights since a 2019 loss to former dual champion Amanda Nunes. Her lone loss was a split call to Ketlen Vieira, so a win over Silva in a headliner could have Holm in position to fight for the title she once held. Silva has three straight wins, including back-to-back submissions. In February, she tapped Lina Lansberg with a kneebar for a $50,000 performance bonus.

Preliminary card picks

Viktoriia Dudakova

Although fights on the prelims don’t count toward the standings in the MMA Junkie staff picks, we still pick each fight. Here are some key results:

There are two 11-0 unanimous picks on the prelims from our staff members. Everyone is picking the unbeaten Azat Maksum (16-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC), who is making his UFC debut as a 4-1 flyweight favorite, over Tyson Nam (21-13-1 MMA, 3-4 UFC).

DWCS signee Viktoriya Dudakova (6-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is a 2-1 favorite in her women’s strawweight bout against Istela Nunes (6-4 MMA, 0-3 UFC) and is a unanimous pick at 11-0.

Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) nearly was a unanimous pick in his featherweight fight to close out the prelims against Tucker Lutz (12-3 MMA, 1-2 UFC), but one of our pickers is taking Lutz in a mild upset.

Check out all the main card picks below.

UFC on ESPN 49 picks

	Holm vs. Silva	Hafez vs. Maddalena	Azaitar vs. Prado	Duraev vs. Park	Chandler vs. Dumont	McKinney vs. Sadykhov
MMA Junkie readers’ consensus picks 108-67	Holm (71%)	Maddalena (93%)	Azaitar (66%)	Park (54%)	Dumont (70%)	McKinnney (54%)
Matt Erickson @MattE 110-65	Holm	Maddalena	Azaitar	Park	Chandler	Sadykhov
Nolan King @mma_kings 109-66	Holm	Maddalena	Prado	Duraev	Dumont	McKinnney
Simon Samano @SJSamano 108-67	Silva	Maddalena	Azaitar	Duraev	Dumont	Sadykhov
Matthew Wells @MrMWells 108-67	Holm	Maddalena	Azaitar	Duraev	Dumont	McKinnney
George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 106-69	Holm	Maddalena	Azaitar	Park	Dumont	McKinnney
Mike Bohn @MikeBohn 104-71 2014 Champion	Holm	Maddalena	Azaitar	Park	Dumont	McKinnney
Ken Hathaway @kenshathaway 103-72 2018, 2022 Champion	Silva	Maddalena	Azaitar	Park	Dumont	Sadykhov
Farah Hannoun @Farah_Hannoun 102-73	Holm	Hafez	Azaitar	Duraev	Dumont	Sadykhov
Abbey Subhan @kammakaze 100-75	Holm	Maddalena	Azaitar	Duraev	Dumont	McKinnney
Brian Garcia @thegoze 99-76 2017 Champion	Silva	Maddalena	Azaitar	Duraev	Dumont	Sadykhov
Danny Segura @dannyseguratv 94-81	Holm	Maddalena	Prado	Duraev	Dumont	McKinnney

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 49.