MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 234.
UFC Fight Night 234 (ESPN+) takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Last event’s results: 0-0
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2024: 0-0
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Phil Hawes (+108) vs. Bruno Ferreira (-132)
Kicking off the main card in Las Vegas is a middleweight matchup between Phil Hawes and Bruno Ferreira.
Despite Hawes opening north of a 2-1 favorite, public money has come pouring in on Ferreira to flip the betting line.
Although the line movement doesn’t necessarily surprise me, I’m not sure how confident anyone can be in either party.
Ferreira is less proven with a smaller sample size, while Hawes has an undeniable propensity to self-destruct in fantastic fashion.
I’ll reluctantly take Ferreira to find a first-round knockout after surviving a strong start from Hawes.
Ricky Simon (-184) vs. Mario Bautista (+148)
Filling out the main card is a potential banger at bantamweight between Ricky Simon and Mario Bautista.
Forecasting this one can be tricky given how game and well-rounded each fighter is, but I don’t disagree with Simon being favored from a betting perspective.
Even though I believe that Bautista is on his way up, his size and strength could be stymied if Simon’s on-paper advantages in the wrestling department allow him to dictate the action.
Not only is Simon a stud wrestler who can tirelessly scramble, but the American Top Team Portland rep quietly carries a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in his back pocket.
I don’t expect Simon to submit a John Crouch-trained brown belt with ease, but I could see Bautista on the wrong end of takedowns and power strikes.
For that reason, I’ll side with Simon to edge out the scorecards in what I expect to be a competitive affair for fifteen minutes.
Jim Miller (-134) vs. Gabriel Benitez (+110)
Serving as a solid offering at lightweight is a battle between southpaws, Jim Miller and Gabriel Benitez.
Although Benitez is one of my favorite fighters to come off “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America,” Miller is one of my favorite fighters of all time.
With that in mind, you’ll have to forgive me for the obvious bias in my words given that Miller is one of the few fighters who remain from my days of watching this sport strictly as ‘a fan.’
Miller is clearly in the winter of his career, but I still believe that he has enough in the proverbial tank to get the job done here.
Jim Miller tweet: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1440970841718607874?s=20
Despite Miller having the spottier record against fellow UFC-level southpaws (standing at 5-7 opposite Benitez’s 2-0), the American comports himself well in closed-stance matchups.
Not only can Miller access leg kicks and left crosses down the centerline, but the 40-year-old also has a knack for catching kicks and countering with takedowns.
Couple that with the chaos that’s encouraged by the smaller octagon, and I’ll ride with Miller to score another club-and-sub in Round 1.
Magomed Ankalaev (-550) vs. Johnny Walker (+390)
The main event on ESPN+ features a rematch between light heavyweights Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I suspect that the smaller octagon of the UFC APEX will strongly favor Ankalaev from a stylistic perspective.
Although Anakalaev can be maddeningly reluctant to press his obvious grappling advantages, the more confined fighting area of the APEX can encourage chaos and grappling alike.
Johnny Walker, who faces Magomed Ankalaev at #UFC294, is 2-3 opposite UFC-level southpaws (W: Rountree, Cirkunov; L: Hill, Abreu, Prado)
Walker shows a lot of feints/flash in open-stance fights but seems uncomfortable/largely looks to play off rear leg attacks #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/d0p5rEAtmi
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 20, 2023
Add in Walker’s traditional troubles with southpaws, and I’ll side with Ankalaev to force a stoppage via strikes come the second round.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 234.
