MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 232.
UFC Fight Night 232 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 4-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 112-78-6
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Uros Medic (+120) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-142)
Kicking off the main card is an impromptu welterweight fight between Uros Medic and Myktybek Orolbai.
With Jonny Parsons being forced to withdraw on fight week, Medic will now meet UFC newcomer Orolbai.
Although I don’t usually make a habit of siding with short-notice replacements, I couldn’t help but be impressed by the footage I saw on Orolbai.
A native of Kyrgyzstan who trains with Team Alpha Male, Orolbai is a solid and smart fighter in all areas. From his persistent bodywork to his high percentage wrestling choices, Orolbai appears to be the complete package (with hands of stone attached).
Don’t get me wrong: Medic is an exciting and improving southpaw striker who could certainly deliver another highlight-reel knockout this Saturday. I just suspect that Orolbai will also have ample opportunities to either take Medic down or clinch him inside the smaller cage of the UFC Apex.
For that reason, I’ll pick Orolbai to survive the early storm in order to bank Rounds 2 and 3 to secure a win on the scorecards.
Amanda Ribas (-265) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+200)
Serving as one of this card’s two ranked matchups is a strawweight fight between Amanda Ribas and Luana Pinheiro.
Despite part of me being happy that Ribas is moving back down to strawweight, I can’t help but wonder if her suspect durability will start to, once again, rear its head.
Pinheiro feels like a live underdog at her current price tag, but I still have to side with the superior skills and offensive output that Ribas possesses.
So long as Ribas can avoid getting stung by something early, I see her pulling away down the stretch to earn a dominant decision win.
Payton Talbott (-700) vs. Nick Aguirre (+480)
Filling out the main card is a bantamweight attraction between Payton Talbott and Nick Aguirre.
Even though this betting line has gotten completely out of hand, I fully expected the general public to eat up a prospect like Talbott.
From flashy flips to strikes alike, Talbott shows the athletic ceiling of a fighter with serious potential. That said, the 25-year-old is still a bit raw and leaves a bit to be desired in the head movement department.
I’m not sure if Aguirre will be the guy to tax Talbott for these tendencies, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see an entertaining affair play out for 15 minutes.
The pick is Talbott by unanimous decision.
Chase Hooper (-235) vs. Jordan Leavitt (+180)
In what’s easily one of the more intriguing fights on this card, Chase Hooper will take on fellow Contender Series product, Jordan Leavitt.
Despite both fighters having mixed records against fellow southpaws, I’d probably give a slight striking edge to the more thoughtful defense and offense of Leavitt.
Chase Hooper, who faces fellow southpaw Jordan Leavitt at #UFCVegas82, is officially 1-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (W: Barrett; L: Garcia, Caceres)
He also beat a southpaw in Kawaihae on DWCS, but Hooper struggled with striking on all levels in those fights. #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/GnwZwz8HSu
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) November 17, 2023
That said, the dynamic of this fight likely comes down to Hooper’s offensive striking volume and scrambling vs. Leavitt’s savvy counters and sticky grappling.
Couple that with the fact that both men are also incredibly opportunistic finishers, and what we have is a very tricky fight to call.
Even though I can understand why Hooper is favored to win, I’ll lean a bit into my biases here by picking a fellow-trained Neil Melanson grappler in Leavitt to edge out the scorecards via striking damage and superior positioning.
Michael Morales (-310) vs. Jake Matthews (+230)
The co-main event at the Apex features a potential welterweight war between Michael Morales and Jake Matthews.
Even though I typically tend to favor experienced fighters over hyped prospects, I still find myself siding with the favorite in this spot.
Morales is still a bit raw with striking defense that leaves a ton to be desired, but the 23-year-old Ecuadorian carries undeniable athleticism and an aptitude for fighting that really jumps off the page.
I suspect that Morales’ superior wrestling ability will allow him to dictate where this fight takes place, but he’ll need to respect the improved boxing and bodywork of Matthews.
I’m expecting violence either way, but the pick is Morales to force a stoppage by strikes in Round 2.
Brendan Allen (-440) vs. Paul Craig (+310)
The main event in Las Vegas features a matchup between ranked middleweights, Brendan Allen and Paul Craig.
Although I can understand why Allen is favored to win, the betting spread listed above feels a bit wide for my liking.
As we’ve often seen in middleweight MMA, we tend to either get weird fights or lackluster striking affairs whenever two strong grapplers get paired together. Add in the chaos that can be encouraged by the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex, and I’d leave some room to be surprised this Saturday.
Despite being a big fan of quietly improving Scotsman in Craig, I have a hard time picking against Allen given his current form. Don’t be surprised to see a somewhat slow start, but I’ll take Allen to force a stoppage by strikes in Round 3.
