Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Matt Erickson

UFC Fight Night 231 predictions: Who’s picking Derrick Lewis to upset Jailton Almeida in Sao Paulo?

The UFC is back in Brazil this week with a pair of heavyweight bangers at the top of the bill.

UFC Fight Night 231 takes place Saturday at Ginasio Do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo. The event streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

Get pick results from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers, as well as additional analysis, below.

Armen Petrosyan vs. Rodolfo Vieira

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JUNE 17: (R-L) Armen Petrosyan of Russia punches Christian Leroy Duncan of England in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on June 17, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Records: Petrosyan (8-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC), Vieira (9-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC)
Division: Middleweight
Betting odds: Petrosyan (-110), Vieira (-110)
Junkie pick results: Petrosyan 9, Vieira 2

Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – APRIL 29: (R-L) Caio Borralho of Brazil punches Michal Oleksiejczuk of Poland in a middleweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on April 29, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Records: Borralho (14-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC), Magomedov (25-5-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC)
Division: Middleweight
Betting odds: Borralho (-290), Magomedov (+240)
Junkie pick results: Borralho 10, Magomedov 1

Don'Tale Mayes vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 17: (R-L) Rodrigo Nascimento of Brazil punches Tanner Boser of Canada in a heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on September 17, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Records: Mayes (10-5 MMA, 3-3 UFC), Nascimento (10-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC)
Division: Heavyweight
Betting odds: Nascimento (-205), Mayes (+170)
Junkie pick results: Nascimento 11, Mayes 0

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby

Gabriel Bonfim

Records: Bonfim (15-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC), Dalby (22-4-1 MMA, 6-3-1 UFC)
Division: Welterweight
Betting odds: Bonfim (-625),s. Nicolas Dalby (+455)
Junkie pick results: Bonfim 11, Dalby 0

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis

May 13, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Jailton Almeida (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Jairzinho Rozenstruik (red gloves) in a heavyweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Records: Almeida (19-2 MMA, 5-0 UFC), Lewis (27-11 MMA, 18-9 UFC)
Division: Heavyweight
Betting odds: Almeida (-485), Lewis (+370)
Junkie pick results: Almeida 10, Lewis 1

Preliminary card picks

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JULY 01: (L-R) Rinat Fakhretdinov of Russia punches Kevin Lee in a welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on July 01, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Although fights on the prelims don’t count toward the standings in the MMA Junkie staff picks, we still pick each fight. Here are some key results:

Of note, though it was set to open up the main card and not part of the prelims, Ismael Bonfim (19-4 MMA, 1-1 UFC) was a 10-1 pick from our staff members for his lightweight fight against Vinc Pichel (14-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC). Bonfim was a heavy favorite in the fight, but the bout was scrapped after he missed weight by 3.5 pounds.

Daniel Marcos (15-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) was a 9-2 pick from our crew for his bantamweight fight against UFC newcomer Victor Hugo (24-4 MMA, 0-0 UFC), but Hugo missed weight by 2.5 pounds and that fight was scrapped, as well.

Our lone unanimous pick on the prelims is Rinat Fakhretdinov (22-2 MMA, 3-0 UFC), more than a 3-1 favorite for his welterweight fight against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7 MMA, 10-3 UFC).

Check out all the main card picks below.

UFC Fight Night 231 main card picks

Almeida
vs.
Lewis
G. Bonfim
vs.
Dalby
Mayes
vs.
Nascimento
Borralho
vs.
Magomedov
Petrosyan
vs.
Vieira
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
179-99

Almeida
(67%)

G. Bonfim
(84%)

Nascimento
(79%)

Borralho
(79%)

Petrosyan
(63%)
Nolan King
@mma_kings
180-98

Almeida

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Borralho

Petrosyan
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
178-100

Almeida

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Magomedov

Petrosyan
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
177-101
2018, 2022 Champion

Lewis

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Borralho

Vieira
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
177-101

Almeida

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Borralho

Vieira
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohn
176-102
2014 Champion

Almeida

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Borralho

Petrosyan
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
169-109
2017 Champion

Almeida

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Borralho

Petrosyan
Matthew Wells
@MrMWells
168-110

Almeida

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Borralho

Petrosyan
Matt Erickson
@MattE
167-111

Almeida

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Borralho

Petrosyan
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
166-112

Almeida

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Borralho

Petrosyan
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
165-113

Almeida

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Borralho

Petrosyan
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
159-120

Almeida

G. Bonfim

Nascimento

Borralho

Petrosyan

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 231.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.