MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC Fight Night 226.
UFC Fight Night 226 takes place Saturday at Accor Arena in Paris. The event streams on ESPN+.
Ciryl Gane (11-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 33 Weight: 247 lbs. Reach: 81″
- Last fight: Submission loss to Jon Jones (March 4, 2023)
- Camp: MMA Factory (France)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai/li>
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC interim heavyweight champion
+ Regional MMA title
+ 2x French muay Thai champion
+ 5 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Creative feints and footwork
^ Changers tempo/shifts stances
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Goes to the body and attacks legs
+ Works well inside the clinch
^ Solid wrist controls and setups
+/- Shows inconsistent ground game
Serghei Spivac (16-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 28 Weight: 255 lbs. Reach: 78″
- Last fight: Submission win over Derrick Lewis (Feb. 4, 2023)
- Camp: Polar Bear Team (Moldova)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 7 knockouts victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking
^ Active jabs, serviceable boxing
+ Catches kicks and counters well
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Excellent trips and tosses
+ Diverse takedown ability
^ Solid mat returns
+ Good top game
^ Chains strikes and submissions well
Point of interest: The cost of counters
The main event in Paris features a pairing of two heavyweights who are familiar with the cost of counters.
Although Serghei Spivac has traditionally utilized his striking as a means to get to the clinch, the Ukrainian-born Moldovan has gotten a lot better at using his jabs to draw out counters.
Whether Spivac is circling off the jab or popping it out there to interrupt his opposition’s advances, the 28-year-old does a decent job of moving with his strikes. When feeling in stride, Spivac isn’t afraid to let head kicks go on the fly but typically targets the head regardless of the strike.
Despite not being the best at checking kicks, Spivac does well when it comes to catching kicks and converting them to takedowns. That said, he’ll need to make sure his reads are in order before making any grand assumptions opposite a striker like Ciryl Gane.
A former soccer player who found a taste for muay Thai, Gane appears to represent the hopes of many in regard to the potential of heavyweight athletes transitioning into mixed martial arts.
Aside from looking the part aesthetically, Gane, more importantly, demonstrates an ability to both sponge and sequence techniques, moving well beyond his years.
Showing that he can switch stances with substance, Gane seems competent from both sides, smoothly shifting the tempo of his attacks. From changing the speed of his kicks to pot-shotting punches and checks, Gane appears fully capable of both frustrating and punishing his opposition.
Even @ciryl_gane's jab is a power shot 😬#UFC256 ▶️ https://t.co/WVX4zKCSVh pic.twitter.com/JzpL5NnCZf
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) December 13, 2020
Gane’s distance management and proprioception appear to be on point, but he’ll still need to be mindful of the looming grappling threats from Spivac.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering that Gane is coming off another setback in the grappling department, no one should be shocked to see Spivac attempt to get this fight to the ground.
A fighter who clearly looks like he has some Sambo experience in his background, Spivac can chain together clinch trips and takedowns like second nature.
Demonstrating a clear understanding of leverage points involving the hips, Spivac seldom seems at a loss for ideas when operating in closed quarters. Even when opponents are able to make their way back to their base, Spivac does a good job of taking them right back down to further wear on them with positional rides.
Should Gane fall into Spivac’s grasp early, then he’ll need to show urgency and improved technique to deal with the assault. However, in Gane’s defense, the former French muay Thai champion is not exactly a slouch in the hand-fighting department – which could assist him here.
Generally comporting himself well in tie-ups, Gane displays both competence and comfort inside of the clinch. Utilizing diligent wrist controls, Gane can keep tabs on his opponent’s intentions, all while keeping hard knees or sneaky elbows in play.
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) January 20, 2022
Gane isn’t beyond hitting foot sweeps or looking for takedowns of his own in this space, I’m just not sure how much he’ll want to grapple with someone like Spivac. The French fighter may advertise improvements in that area, but Spivac is clearly one of the most consistent and aggressive grapplers currently at heavyweight.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the French fighter, listing Gane -174 and Spivac +136 via FanDuel.
Although Gane is more than capable of winning this fight, I was somewhat surprised to see him installed as the betting favorite over Spivac.
Gane may have hit some opportunistic submissions against lower-level opposition earlier in his career, but he’s faltered in those same areas in his last two title opportunities. I’m sure that “Bon Gamin” has more to offer than he was able to show opposite Jon Jones earlier this year, but I’m not sure that five months is enough time to close the gaps against a grappler who is even more aggressive.
Unless Gane is able to emphatically counter Spivac off a clinch break like Tom Aspinall did (in a fight that Spivac took on extremely short notice, mind you), then I suspect that “The Polar Bear” can get to his game and maul the Frenchman on the floor.
The pick is Spivac to produce a submission by the end of the first round.
