MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC Fight Night 224.
UFC Fight Night 224 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London. The event streams on ESPN+.
Tom Aspinall (12-3 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’5″ Age: 30 Weight: 251 lbs. Reach: 78″
- Last fight: TKO loss to Curtis Blaydes (July 23, 2023)
- Camp: Team Kaobon (England)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ Amateur MMA titles
+ 9 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Pivots, shifts stances, etc.
+ Good boxing technique
^ Fast hands and a good feel for counters
+ Heavy leg kicks
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
^ Excellent grappling/finishing instincts from topside
Marcin Tybura (24-7 MMA, 11-6 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 37 Weight: 253 lbs. Reach: 78″
- Last fight: Decision win over Blagoy Ivanov (Feb. 4, 2023)
- Camp: Ankos MMA (Poland)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ Regional MMA titles
+ 9 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Improved striking arsenal
^ Will shift stance in combination
+ Accurate kicks and knees
^ Works well off of lead leg
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
^ Decent timing on entries
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Floats, rides, finds way to back
Point of interest: Heavyweight hands
The main event in London features a pairing of heavyweights who aren’t afraid to mix things up on their feet.
Despite being criticized early on for his lack of striking presence, Marcin Tybura has steadily developed a kickboxing game since coming into the UFC.
Awkwardly prodding and dipping off of straight strikes, Tybura will casually add in power shots, varying between casting punches or hammerfists. Like many Eastern European and Russian kickboxers, Tybura typically punctuates combinations with kicks off his lead leg.
Tybura is also competent from both stances and will typically shift when coming forward. That said, Tybura isn’t beyond being countered due to his strange defensive gestures and will need to be on his best behavior when trading with Tom Aspinall.
Although Aspinall was indoctrinated into martial arts through the world of jiu-jitsu (thanks to his father), the 30-year-old phenom has seamlessly picked up on the striking side of the sport.
Training out of Team Kaobon, Aspinall embodies a similar swagger to his stablemate, Darren Till. And though Aspinall will sometimes show a southpaw stance, the Wigan native primarily operates out of orthodox, applying a style that is all his own.
Typically taking the front foot from the jump, Aspinall wastes little time when it comes to poking and prodding his opposition with everything from lightning-fast straight punches to thudding low kicks. And when Aspinall’s eyes pick up on a counter opening mid-exchange, the Englishman always keeps a whipping right hand on a hair trigger.
Aspinall also has some nice knees that could come in handy for this fight, but I’m not sure how much offense the English fighter will employ with his lower extremities considering the level-changing threats of Tybura.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Given that both fighters come from solid jiu-jitsu backgrounds, I’ll be curious to see which man takes the initiative within the grappling department.
Tybura appears to be the more willing wrestler of the two, but I’m not sure how successful the Pole will be when it comes to grounding Aspinall.
Growing up on the jiu-jitsu mats under the care of his father, Aspinall knows a thing or two about grappling. Sure, jiu-jitsu is obviously not the same art as wrestling, but Aspinall appears to be well trained in the transitional phases.
Aspinall has always appeared to have a solid reactionary sprawl in open space, but his comfortability off his back appeared to cost him at times early on in his career.
Since then, Aspinall has been much more diligent about keeping his hips heavy and prioritizing superior position. And if his pressure doesn’t pull out a shot from his opponent, then Aspinall isn’t shy about changing his level and shooting a takedown of his own.
From topside, Aspinall parlays his aforementioned hips into dominant, fight-ending positions (showing an excellent passing ability in the process). But if Aspinall ends up underneath a fighter like Tybura, then he’ll need to be urgent with his submission and scramble attempts.
A fellow black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Tybura has translated his grappling game seamlessly into MMA. Doing his best work when on top, the Pole utilizes positioning fundamentals and shoulder pressure to help persuade his opposition into giving their back.
Once Tybura can establish some form of mount, he will quickly get to work with strikes to help set up his submission efforts. And though this type of route is highly unlikely against a competitor the caliber of Aspinall, Tybura still has the skills to perhaps strategically score points on top, making any potential grappling stanzas even more compelling.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring Aspinal, listing him -500 and Tybura +340 via FanDuel.
Despite the English being known for backing their people at the betting window, I always maintain a healthy skepticism whenever I see heavyweight betting lines with a spread that’s wider than 3-1.
Even though I agree that Aspinall should be favored, I warn anyone who is completely discounting Tybura in this spot.
Aside from the fact that Tybura has had a penchant for coming through at underdog odds, the Polish fighter has proven to be a fairly durable customer who can take over fights late as his opponents start to tire. Add in Aspinall’s year-long injury layoff, and you could argue that we have all the makings for an upset this Saturday.
That said, I can’t help but notice that Tybura tends to have trouble with fighters who can counter-strike and wrestle.
Not only can Aspinall competently hit fight-changing counters on the feet, but I also believe that the Englishman could potentially get the jump on Tybura in the wrestling and grappling realm.
Akin to the stereotype of big men being bad off of their backs, Tybura’s surprisingly agile grappling game seems to run out of tracks fast when forced to work from bottom positions. More specifically, Tybura will either turtle to his base to stand or occasionally search from some deep-half options – – which are both terrible ideas against a grappler like Aspinall.
Not only can Aspinall close the show quickly with a rear-naked choke, but the Englishman is also sneaky about snatching up kimuras whenever someone attempts an underhook from underneath him.
Should Aspinall elect to utilize his lightning-quick shot on Tybura (who tends to give away first rounds), then I wouldn’t be surprised to see Aspinall become the first person to officially submit the Pole.
The pick is Aspinall by first-round kimura.
Prediction: Aspinall inside the distance
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 224.
