MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC Fight Night 221.
UFC Fight Night 221 takes place Saturday at The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Petr Yan (16-4 MMA, 8-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’7″ Age: 30 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 67″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Sean O’Malley (Oct. 22, 2022)
- Camp: Tiger Muay Thai (Thailand)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC bantamweight champion
+ ACB bantamweight title
+ Master of sports in boxing
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Building pace and pressure
+ Excellent footwork
^ Shifts stances, takes angles
+ Accurate left hand
^ Jabs, hooks and crosses
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Defense, trips, strikes off the breaks
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Scrambles well
Merab Dvalishvili (15-4 MMA, 8-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
- Last fight: Decision win over Jose Aldo (Aug. 20, 2022)
- Camp: Syndicate MMA/Serra-Longo (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Multiple sambo championships
+ Judo black belt
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 3 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 1 first-round finish
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ Steadily improved striking technique
^ Variates looks and levels
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Works well from bodylock
+ Excellent offensive wrestling
^ Chains attacks and scrambles well
+ Aggressive ground striker
^ Good sense of timing
Point of interest: Pressure pit
The main event in Las Vegas features a fun bantamweight battle between two fighters who are familiar with pressure.
An aggressive fighter by nature, Merab Dvalishvili has no issues when it comes to bringing the fight to his opponents.
Although Dvalishvili’s background is in judo and sambo, the Georgian fighter has been steadily shoring up his striking under the care of Ray Longo and company. Not only has Dvalishvili cleaned up on his general technique, but the 32-year-old has also been incorporating more things like feints to play off of.
Dvalishvili appears to have an impeccable sense of timing, seemingly utilizing his own awkward rhythms to throw off his opposition. Whether he’s connecting punches to takedowns or mixing in the occasional spinning assault, Dvalishvili can be a difficult character to get a beat on.
Regardless of Dvlasihvili’s approach, he’ll still need to be respectful of the counters of Petr Yan.
A ferocious competitor, Yan implements an offense-heavy approach that is both analyst and fan-friendly, as he aggressively works his opposition toward the fence. Whether Yan is operating from orthodox or southpaw, the 30-year-old phenom often conducts traffic with his left hand, wielding a bevy of accurate weapons from that side.
From straight shots down the center that range from jabs to crosses to sneaky hooks and uppercuts off the lead side, Yan can pretty much do it all from boxing range. The Tiger Muay Thai product will also mix in other things like kicks, knees, and elbows into his repertoire – though he seems to smartly save that shot selection for his assaults off of the breaks.
Yan does a deceptively good job on the defensive end, subtly rolling with oncoming shots while keeping his eyes on his opponent with returns in mind. That said, shifting aggression – no matter who is at the steering wheel – tends to be a ripe recipe in regard to opportunistic counters.
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Given that wrestling is a crux of Dvalishvili’s game, no one should be shocked to see him test Yan early and often in that department.
A flexible takedown artist, Dvalishvili has a plethora of tools at his disposal.
Although Dvalishvili chains particularly well from single-leg snatches (like a lot of sambo-based practitioners we’ve seen in the octagon), the Serra-Longo product has incorporated a lot more double-legs since training stateside.
Whether Dvalishvili’s hitting shots in the open or completing doubles against the fence, he can be a difficult customer to dissuade. And when Dvalishvilia does get his man down, he’s not shy about immediately looking to land strikes in transition.
Dvalishvili also appears to be a problem inside the clinch, making himself genuine nightmare material whenever allowed to establish the bodylock. That said, his opponent is no slouch inside of closed quarters.
Akin to Dvalishvili, Yan’s grappling game also incorporates a lot of sambo and judo influence in regard to both his wrestling and submission sensibilities. Whether he’s hitting disruptive foot sweeps or attacking submissions off transitions, Yan seldom seems to be lost, offering up answers that involve subtle but smart wrist controls in the process.
Despite being bested by Dvalishvili’s teammate, Yan has also shown tools to help shut down similarly-styled grapplers in the past.
In his first fight against Magomed Magomedov, Yan had to constantly shake a sambo champion off of his back due to his propensity to tripod to his base in scrambles.
In their rematch, however, Yan was able to make some key adjustments that involved a stronger emphasis on attaching whizzers as momentum stoppers – which is a smart adjustment for a fighter who has quick hip triggers and can shift backward when he needs to.
Since Yan’s battles with Magomedov, the now UFC champion still inherently tripods in scrambling scenarios but is smart about swimming his arms and re-wrestling from said positions. Nevertheless, despite Yan’s knack for turning defense into offense, he will still be playing with fire anytime he allows for back exposure (as we saw in his rematch with Aljamain Sterling).
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are favoring the Russian fighter, listing Yan -275 and Dvalishvili +210 via Tipico Sportsbook.
Although I don’t disagree with who is favored, I warn anyone completely discounting the chances of Dvalishvili.
The Georgian fighter may not have the finesse of his current counterpart, but Dvalishvili is a tireless worker whose output and attitude make him perfectly built for five-round affairs. Add in the fact that these two will be competing in the smaller octagon, and it could be a long night at the office for Yan.
That said, I still find myself leaning toward the betting favorite in this spot.
Having Sterling in Dvalishvili’s camp and corner will definitely be a big edge for the Serra-Longo product, but I’m not sure that he can positionally punish Yan in the same ways.
Dvalishvili looks to be getting more comfortable with putting his hooks in when the back becomes available, but he still primarily seems programmed to aggressively strike. This, in turn, allows for opportunities to create scrambles and escapes – which is part of the reason why Dvalishvili ends up having to secure multiple takedowns in the first place.
It’s also easy to forget that Yan was getting the better of the grappling exchanges down the stretch in his rematch with Sterling, accruing nearly as much control time (and arguably more damage) in a fight that could have easily been scored his way.
Should Yan display his usual stamina and stellar hand-fighting, then I suspect that the former champion will be able to successfully scramble with Dvalishvili and punctuate the exchanges in and out of the breaks. I also think that Dvalishvili’s propensity to stage striking stanzas from the outside could cost him here if he operates too closely to the fence (Yan’s preferred kill zone).
My heart is with Dvalishvili and his team to score the upset, but I’m officially siding with Yan to win on the scorecards in spite of his style not seeming to score well with judges. Even though everyone from the aforementioned judges to the general population still doesn’t seem to give bodywork and counters the respect it deserves, I believe that Yan’s left-sided attacks – from head kicks to counter crosses – will be extra potent in this fight.
