MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC Fight Night 219.
UFC Fight Night 219 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Jessica Andrade (24-9 MMA, 15-7 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’1″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 62″
- Last fight: Decision win over Lauren Murphy (Jan. 21, 2023)
- Camp: Parana Vale Tudo (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC strawweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Muay Thai blue belt
+ 9 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ High-volume striker
^ Combinations and bodywork
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Trips, throws, high-crotch lifts
+ Solid top game
Erin Blanchfield (10-1 MMA, 4-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 23 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66″
- Last fight: submission win over Molly McCann (Nov. 12, 2022)
- Camp: MK Muay Thai (New Jersey)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ EBI flyweight champion
+ 2 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Steadily improved striking
^ Stance shifts, straight punches and combos
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Good frames, elbows and knees
+ Serviceable takedown ability
^ Chains well off of singles
+ Solid transitional grappler
Point of interest: Striking on short notice
The main event in Las Vegas features an impromptu meeting of flyweights, as Jessica Andrade steps in on short notice to meet Erin Blanchfield.
Coming out like the proverbial bull in a China shop, the former strawweight champion, Andrade, is your quintessential pressure fighter.
Akin to the female version of John Lineker, Andrade is most effective when able to get her opposition on the back foot and fleeting toward the fence. Once able to corral her opponent in between the cage and inner-black octagon lines, the 31-year-old Brazilian will unleash in left-to-right continuums, varying well to the body with regularity.
Andrade’s aggression obviously makes her available to offense coming back her way, but she has been better about trying to find solutions for her style and stature that involve head movement and past influences.
Re: comments I’m seeing on Jessica Andrade’s head movement… when interviewing her at UNLV boxing back in 2017, Angelo Reyes really stressed Henry Armstrong’s style to both Andrade and her coaches before she decided to stay in Brazil, as something tells me she took it to heart: pic.twitter.com/9FfGI9MPGn
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 23, 2021
Nevertheless, Andrade will still need to be mindful whenever she dips or slips into the pocket considering the arsenal of Blanchfield.
Although Blanchfield has been primarily billed as a grappler, the native New Yorker has made measurable strides in her striking game since working with MK Muay Thai in New Jersey.
Steadily pressuring forward behind a prodding jab, Blanchfield employs solid form to her straight punches and front teeps to enter space. When feeling in stride, Blanchfield can shift to southpaw where she has shown a knack for left crosses and high kicks (which is a dynamic that I see serving her particularly well in this matchup).
Once Blanchflied is able to establish herself in the clinch, the 23-year-old smartly prioritizes frames that allow her to get off deceptively effective elbows and knees in close. That said, Blanchfield may experience more turbulence in closed quarters than she’s used to when it comes to Andrade.
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Given the grappling danger that both women present, winning the wrestling will be extra important this weekend.
Arguably one of the most violent takedown practitioners in any division she competes in, Andrade is certainly not shy when it comes to opportunities to toss her opposition into the air. The former strawweight champ works well from bodylock variations and can change her level in the open, but does her best work from a head-outside single (a technique that allows her strength to shine through as she almost hoists her opposition at will).
Jessica Andrade demonstrating why it’s important to slam toward the same side as the figure four grip, as she counters Rose Namajunas’ kimura counter to win the title back at UFC 237 #UFC261 pic.twitter.com/h2wHG2hZvT
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 22, 2021
Still, I’m not so sure how much grappling Andrade will be planning to do with Blanchfield – especially on short notice.
Since storming onto the scene as the first female EBI flyweight champion, Blanchfield has only continued to grow her grappling acumen in mixed martial arts.
Appearing to be an avid driller in the wrestling realm, Blanchfield sequences her attacks like second nature, chaining particularly well from single-leg positions. Whether Blanchfield is sweeping the standing leg or looking to double off into a more traditional shot, the American is certainly not short on ideas in this space.
Once she’s able to secure top position off of takedowns, Blanchfield’s brand of high-percentage choices continues to show itself on the floor. From cross-wrist rides that lead to pins to kimura traps that allow for positional advances, Blanchfield displays a bevy of high-level tactics that she regularly puts to practice in her fights.
In fact, if you go back and look at Blanchfield’s last three decision wins, you’ll see that her steady passing process almost scored a finish at multiple points (with opponents arguably being saved by the bell).
The potential problem, however, is that Andrade can be a difficult person to control.
The former strawweight champion has come a long way since her submission losses up at bantamweight, as Andrade is now a fully-fledged black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who spends her free time competing on the regional circuits. And if Andrade is able to get things to the ground, she employs a positional assault that involves posturing, passing and striking with impunity that is also hard to ignore.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the short-notice fighter, listing Andrade -140 and Blanchfield +120 via Tipico Sportsbook.
Despite the short-notice nature, I’m not surprised to see Andrade open as the favorite. She’s a dependable fighter who never slows down in fights, so it shouldn’t be shocking to see Andrade – who doesn’t have to cut a lot of weight to make this division – step up to the proverbial plate.
Nevertheless, I warn anyone writing off Blanchfield in this spot.
You may not be that familiar with the latest flyweight contender due to the UFC matchmakers’ habit of burying the more meaningful lighter-weight fights on prelims in favor of force-feeding us big men on main cards, but Blanchfield is an incredibly well-trained talent who has a bright future in the sport.
If she’s able to survive the oncoming storm from Andrade, then Blanchfield has all the skills to either take advantage of errors or force them outright herself.
On the feet, Blanchfield has a decent southpaw double attack that could prove to be stylistic kryptonite for a stout fighter like Andrade who dips heavily like a wrestle-boxer. And on the floor, Blanchfield’s high-percentage process could produce results down the stretch depending on Andrade’s condition.
That said, I’m still ultimately siding with Andrade here.
Although new blood is needed at flyweight, I suspect that Andrade – who intends on going back down to strawweight – might be one of the more difficult stylistic asks for Blanchfield in the division. Andrade may have been around for a minute, but the 31-year-old veteran is currently in her athletic prime and should still be the speedier woman on the night.
For that reason, I’ll side with Andrade to score a semi-shocking win early – – probably off of punctuating left hook that catches Blanchfield trying to close distance. Not only have competent counter strikers caused issues for Blanchfield before, but the American has also self-admittedly struggled with the strength of other former strawweights like J.J. Aldrich, which could bode badly for her this Saturday.
