MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 215.
UFC Fight Night 215 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 4-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2022: 111-68-1
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Jack Della Maddalena (-600) vs. Danny Roberts (+450)
Kicking off the main card is a fun welterweight affair between Jack Della Maddalena and Danny Roberts.
Despite being curious about how Della Maddalena’s style stacks up against a dedicated southpaw, I can’t help but side with the Australian prospect in this spot.
I’m a big fan of Roberts’ southpaw swagger on the feet, he just has a propensity to get hurt in exchanges that can be difficult to ignore. For that reason, I’ll take Della Maddalena to find an emphatic finishing shot in the first frame.
Andre Fialho (-110) vs. Muslim Salikhov (-110)
Serving as another solid welterweight offering is a battle between two strikers, Andre Fialho and Muslim Salikhov.
Even though I’m glad that Fiahlo finally took a little time off from his torrid schedule, I suspect that this could be a tough stylistic test to return to. Not only does Salikhov carry the cross and hook counters that have traditionally troubled Fialho, but I also believe that the man from Portugal struggles against competent kickers who know how to work the body.
With that in mind, I’ll take a flyer on the 38-year-old Salikhov to spark off a first-round finish via a spinning sidekick to the body.
Chase Sherman (+180) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-230)
Although this fight would’ve surely opened the dark portion of the broadcast if we were still in the Joe Silva era, the current UFC matchmakers saw fit to fill Saturday’s main card with a last-minute heavyweight bout between Chase Sherman and Wado Cortes-Acosta.
It’s hard to know what to expect given that Cortes-Acosta is stepping in on short notice to replace Josh Parisian, who was supposed to face Sherman two weeks prior.
But between Cortes-Acosta fighting just three weeks ago to the fact that he received some awfully kind scorecards in that fight (for getting his leg kicked to pieces, no less), I find myself semi-reluctantly siding toward the more experienced underdog in this spot.
I’ll take Sherman to pick up where Jared Vanderaa left off, scoring a TKO via leg kicks by the end of the second round.
Kennedy Nzechukwu (-170) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+145)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features a light heavyweight attraction between Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ion Cutelaba.
Even though the biased part of me will be cheering for Cutelaba due to our shared stomping grounds and coaches, I always try and stay as professional and unbiased as humanly possible in these sorts of matchups. And with that in mind, I can’t help but slightly lean toward Nzechukwu when breaking this fight down.
Cutelaba can certainly win wrestling exchanges and find a finish in the early going, I just worry about the Moldovan fighter either grappling himself into a hole or tiring himself out should he fail to find a fast finish. For that reason, I suspect that the improved wrestling process from the Fortis MMA product pays off down the stretch with a grueling decision win.
Derrick Lewis (+165) vs. Serghei Spivac (-200)
The main event on ESPN+ features a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac.
As former UFC color commentator Brian Stann pointed out years ago, fighters who try and grapple Lewis generally do worse than fighters who try and strike with him. And outside of one Daniel Cormier, that statement is largely true.
So, between that and the fact that Lewis is 3-0 inside of The Apex, I can’t help but take a shot on Lewis to right the ship here.
I expect Spivac to get off to a great start early, but believe that his willingness to grapple will put him in some vulnerable spots for a classic Lews knockout come the second round.
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