MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC Fight Night 212.
UFC Fight Night 212 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2022: 100-59-1
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Raphael Assuncao (+310) vs. Victor Henry (-450)
It feels like a rarity for us to get five-fight main cards for non-PPV events, but I’m happy to see fighters like Raphael Assuncao and Victor Henry get the opening slot.
Assuncao is one of my favorite bantamweights and does not get enough respect for his technical skills or deceptively-deep resume. That said, it’s difficult to deny the challenge that a fighter like Henry presents at this point in Assuncao’s career.
Henry, who is a Josh Barnett-trained fighter, has all the scrambling and ground-fighting chops that you’d expect from an experienced bantamweight. However, it is Henry’s offensive variety and striking volume that should set him apart from the Brazilian veteran in this fight.
Even though I’ll be cheering for Assuncao to score the upset on a personal level, I feel obligated to stay professional as an analyst and pick the obvious betting favorite in Henry to pull away down the stretch.
Misha Cirkunov (+155) vs. Alonzo Menifield (-205)
Serving as one of the more volatile offerings on the main card is a light heavyweight encounter between Misha Cirkunov and Alonzo Menifield.
Despite being listed as the underdog, this feels like a fight that’s tailored for Cirkunov to get a bounce-back win by submission. However, it’s hard to trust the Canadian fighter given his inconsistent performances and the bouncing around of both training camps and weight classes.
Menifield is not exactly a trustworthy product either (as he may also be experiencing a camp change), but I suspect that his power is enough to shift the complexion of this fight in his favor for a first-round finish.
Dusko Todorovic (-230) vs. Jordan Wright (+175)
In what should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts, Dusko Todorivic meets Jordan Wright in a middleweight clash.
Wright is an affable character who I can’t help but cheer for, but there’s no denying that he is a do-or-die fighter who doesn’t seem to have much in him past the first round. For that reason, I’ll take Todorovic to survive the striking scares on the feet in order to finish Wright on the floor by the second frame.
Jonathan Martinez (-230) vs. Cub Swanson (+175)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features a banger at bantamweight between Jonathan Martinez and Cub Swanson.
Although I’ve been one of Martinez’s biggest defenders when it comes to him being a betting favorite, I can’t help but feel that this is a fight that Swanson is still capable of winning. That said, it’s hard to know how his body will hold up given that he’s dropping a weight class in the winter of his career.
I also noticed that Swanson, despite officially being 3-1 against UFC-level southpaws, has a propensity to heavily dip and dart to his right – which could play right into the kicks and knees of Martinez. I’ll reluctantly pick Martinez to find a finish in the first round, but no one should be shocked if Swanson is able to adjust and swarm “Dragon” come the second frame onward.
Alexa Grasso (-230) vs. Viviane Araujo (+175)
The main event on ESPN+ is a fun clash at women’s flyweight between Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araujo.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this fight should play out much closer than the betting odds indicate – at least early.
Araujo is a potent puncher who will have an on-paper edge in the grappling department, so don’t be surprised to see the Brazilian pursue takedowns early and often. The potential problem, however, is that Araujo – despite being incredibly athletic – appears to tire after prolonged grappling stanzas.
For that reason, I’ll pick Grasso, who I suspect is better built for five rounds, to take the decision on the judges’ scorecards via striking volume that taxes Araujo’s defenses.
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