MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 293.
UFC 293 takes place Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNews/ESPN+ and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 4-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 90-67-4
Welcome to MMA Junkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Tyson Pedro (-106) vs. Anton Turkalj (-114)
Despite having action-friendly fights like Jack Jenkins versus Chepe Mariscal on the prelims, the UFC matchmakers saw fit to kick off the paid portion of the card with a light heavyweight matchup between Tyson Pedro and Anton Turkalj.
Affectionately referring to himself as “The Pleasure Man,” Turkalj seems to be a popular pick among MMA pundits and bettors alike. That said, I’m not exactly sure where the Swedish fighter will have an edge against Pedro.
Not only is Pedro the better wrestler and submission fighter on paper, but he probably has the better striking game to boot.
I don’t think Pedro will get the finish, so I’ll officially side with him to win by decision.
Justin Tafa (-235) vs. Austen Lane (+186)
Even though there are far more attractive ‘big men’ matchups on the prelims like Da Woon Jung versus Carlos Ulberg, the UFC matchmakers just can’t seem to help themselves when it comes to force-feeding us lower-level heavyweights on main cards.
I’m guessing that the card strength fooled Mick Maynard into forgetting that this was supposed to be a pay-per-view, which is probably how we get Justin Tafa and Austen Lane on the paid portion of the event.
It’s also important to remember that Lane had a cup of coffee in the NFL, which automatically makes him MMA’s version of “the great white hope,” given how much value we still seem to put on that skill set (despite Brendan Schaub still being the best we’ve had to show for it). But I digress.
Should Tafa avoid getting his eye gouged this time around, then I suspect that the Australian southpaw can light up Lane via knockout by the end of round one.
Manel Kape (-455) vs. Felipe Dos Santos (+300)
With Kai-Kara France withdrawing from this contest due to concussion issues, Manel Kape will now meet Felipe Dos Santos on short notice.
Dos Santos appears to be a fun fighter who hails from the Chute Boxe Diego Lima camp, but I’m worried that he’s way too raw and young in his career for such a step up. Initially booked to be on the Contender Series, Dos Santos will now debut on the main card of a pay-per-view.
So long as Kape doesn’t get careless and underestimate his Brazilian counterpart, then the 29-year-old contender should be able to outclass Dos Santos via speed and precision.
I’ll take Kape to take the path of least resistance by scoring a somewhat surprising submission win in the first round.
Alexander Volkov (-250) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+198)
The co-main event in Australia features a somewhat strange heavyweight showdown between Alexander Volkov and Tai Tuivasa.
Although Volkov deserves distinction as the favorite given the momentum of his two-fight winning streak, I suspect that Tuivasa is livelier than he’s being credited for in this spot.
I won’t be surprised if Volkov is able to eventually break Tuivasa down with his superior range weapons and bodywork, but I’ll take a flier on Tuivasa to use leg kicks and his underrated athleticism to close the distance for a second-round knockout.
Israel Adesanya (-750) vs. Sean Strickland (+490)
The main event for UFC 293 features a middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, I can’t argue with the long odds despite my admitted bias toward Stickland’s team.
Even though Strickland will likely have a solid strategy from his coaches and company alike, it’s ultimately up to the challenger to go in there and execute against the champion. But when that champion is “The Last Stylebender,” execution can be much easier said than done.
In fact, considering that Adesanya seems to do his best work against aggressive fighters with defensive issues, I wouldn’t surprised to see the champ make his reads and score a stoppage by the middle rounds.
I’ll officially take Adesanya to win via round-three TKO.
