MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 292.
UFC 292 takes place Saturday at TD Garden in Boston. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Zhang Weili (23-3 MMA, 7-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 34 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 63″
- Last fight: Submission win over Carla Esparza (Nov. 12, 2022)
- Camp: Bang Tao Muay Thai (Thailand)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC strawweight champion
+ Wushu Sanda background
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 11 knockout victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Explosive athlete
+ Wide variation of striking arsenal
^ From fundamentals to spinning attacks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Elbows, knees, trips, tosses
+ Improved wrestling and scrambling
+ Solid transitional grappling from topside
Amanda Lemos (13-2-1 MMA, 7-2-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 36 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65″
- Last fight: TKO win over Marina Rodriguez (Nov. 5, 2022)
- Camp: Marajao Brothers (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Jungle Fight bantamweight title
+ 8 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Hard kicks and knees
^ Favors front and leg kicks at range
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Serviceable scrambling ability
+ Solid positional grappler
^ Aggressive from topside
Point of interest: The cost of counters
The co-main event for UFC 292 features a strawweight title fight between two competitors who are familiar with the cost of counters.
Though listed as a fighter who hails from a wushu sanda background, Zhang Weili continues to add to her striking arsenal as her MMA career continues.
The former strawweight champion can come forward aggressively but ultimately prefers staying light on her feet, all while using feints to open up kicks and hooking combinations.
Like many sanda practitioners, Zhang also is not shy in using spinning attacks when the positions call for it. Whether she’s corralling her opponents into turning sidekicks or countering outside-foot approaches with spinning backfists, the 34-year-old seems confident striking from multiple roles and ranges.
However, outside of a natural feel for distance and the occasional slip off the center, Zhang has shown that she is not beyond being stung by hard counters during her aggressive engagements. With that in mind, I will be curious to see how much she’s willing to come forward considering the countering threats of [autotag]Amanda Lemos[/auttoag].
An athletic fighter who also used to compete at 135 pounds, Lemos brings some interesting problems to the table. Despite listing herself as a southpaw striker, Lemos is comfortable throwing her patent hooks and crosses from both stances, whether she is coming forward or looking to counter.
The former Jungle Fight champion does appear to operate more out of orthodox, but has no issues shifting to southpaw to either counter with a check hook or come forward to finish a combination. Lemos also regularly looks to land hard leg kicks, but I suspect that her front kicks and knees will serve her better considering the level-changing threats from Zhang.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering the potential for chaos on the feet, no one should be shocked if these two end up in the clinch or on the floor.
Although Zhang is the more credentialed ground fighter between the two, Lemos has demonstrated some clear grappling improvements in recent outings.
In addition, Lemos’ muay Thai sensibilities make her a solid offensive threat via the knee and elbow traffic she controls off of collar ties, which could create damaging moments anytime Zhang allows for the proper space. That said, I suspect that Lemos’ defense will be what’s tested if these two tangle in the wrestling realm.
Lemos seems to have good defensive instincts in regard to her whizzer and underhook awareness, attempting to either hoist or turn opposition when appropriate. The nine-year pro can also hit crafty trips from clinch space, showing a strong top game whenever action flows to the floor.
Still, I’m not sure how much Lemos will want to tie up with Zhang and risk having the tables turned.
As we saw in her title-winning effort in Shenzhen, China, Zhang possesses the power to demolish durable opposition with hard knees and elbows within close quarters.
The champion’s sanda background also comes in handy when hanging out in this space, showing the ability to hit slick trips and takedowns at the drop of a dime.
Since then, Zhang has upgraded her wrestling chops by working with talents like Henry Cejudo to the Hickman brothers (who operate out of Bang Tao Muay Thai). Now, it is not uncommon for Zhang to hit competent wrestling chains in open space, almost as if it were second nature.
When Zhang is able to establish any sort of control off of a takedown, the Chinese fighter is quick to make hay by both settling into position, as well as seeking out damaging strikes like short elbows. Zhang, at least when she’s not being overaggressive, seems very competent inside of scrambles with a freakish back-take ability to boot.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the sitting champion, listing Zhang -340 and Lemos +250 via FanDuel.
Although I don’t disagree with the betting spread above, I do warn anyone who is completely discounting Lemos in this spot.
As we’ve seen in multiple fights from Zhang’s UFC catalog, the current champ is not beyond being stung by strikes early – especially if she’s getting overaggressive.
Should Zhang dip at the wrong time or get careless mid-combination, then no one should be shocked to see Lemos steal the belt and the shine that goes with it this Saturday.
Still, I have a hard time betting against Zhang in this spot.
Aside from Zhang’s insane athleticism and recoverability, she is also the more proven fighter in five-round affairs. I also believe that Zhang’s pacing will only accentuate her perceived winning conditions on the ground.
In fact, Zhang’s submission game appears to be getting more potent under the care of No-Gi world champion Josh Hinger, so don’t be surprised to see another finish on the floor for the Chinese champion.
I suspect we get somewhat of a feeling-out period to start given the power at play, but I’ll pick Zhang to eventually get things to the ground and snatch up a submission come the second round.
