UFC 291 predictions: Who do we think will be the new ‘Baddest Motherf*cker’? (Updated)

(Editor’s note: The Michel Pereira vs. Stephen Thompson fight was canceled after the publication of this story, which was updated to include the replacement main card fight between Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Derrick Lewis.)

The UFC is on the road in Utah this week with the “BMF” title on the line at the top of the bill.

UFC 291 takes place Saturday at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

Get pick results from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers, as well as additional analysis, below.

Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland

Records: Michael Chiesa (16-6 MMA, 11-6 UFC), Kevin Holland (24-9 MMA, 11-6 UFC)
Division: Welterweight
Betting odds: Holland -140, Chiesa +120
Junkie pick results: Holland 7, Chiesa 4

Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green

Records: Tony Ferguson (25-8 MMA, 15-6 UFC), Bobby Green (29-14-1 MMA, 10-9-1 UFC)
Division: Lightweight
Betting odds: Green -380, Ferguson +310
Junkie pick results: Green 11, Ferguson 0
Odds and ends: Green is the only unanimous pick on the main card. Ferguson has lost five straight fights. A sixth almost certainly would have to mark the end of his time in the UFC. Our staff members are unanimous for Green, but no one needs reminding that upsets happen in MMA on the regular.

Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Records: Derrick Lewis (26-11 MMA, 17-9 UFC), Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1 MMA, 10-6 UFC)
Division: Heavyweight
Betting odds: de Lima -190, Lewis +160
Junkie pick results: Lewis 10, de Lima 1
Odds and ends: This fight was elevated to the main card from the prelims Friday after the Michel Pereira-Stephen Thompson fight was scrapped on the heels of Pereira’s weight miss. Lewis is the underdog to 2-1 favorite de Lima, but Lewis has all but one of our staff members thinking upset.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira

Records: Jan Blachowicz (29-9-1 MMA, 12-6-1 UFC), Alex Pereira (7-2 MMA, 4-1 UFC)
Division: Light heavyweight
Betting odds: Pick’em
Junkie pick results: Blachowicz 7, Pereira 4
Odds and ends: The next light heavyweight title challenger may come out of this fight between two ex-champions. Blachowicz is trying to get another shot at the 205-pound belt he used to hold. Pereira is in his first fight at light heavyweight after he lost the middleweight title back to Israel Adesanya earlier this year. Our staff pickers like Blachowicz at the 7-4 clip, which runs counter to nearly 60 percent of our readers, who have Pereira.

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje

Records: Dustin Poirier (29-7 MMA, 21-6 UFC), Justin Gaethje (24-4 MMA, 7-4 UFC)
Division: Lightweight
Betting odds: Poirier -150, Gaethje +130
Junkie pick results: Poirier 9, Gaethje 2
Odds and ends: The “BMF” title has been resurrected and will go to the winner. They fought in 2018 in a main event, which Poirier won by fourth-round TKO. They’re both former interim lightweight champions who still have their eyes on a belt beyond the “BMF” invention.

Preliminary card picks

Gabriel Bonfim

Although fights on the prelims don’t count toward the standings in the MMA Junkie staff picks, we still pick each fight. Here are some key results:

Gabriel Bonfim (14-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) is the only unanimous pick on the prelims from our staff members. The -345 betting favorite is 11-0 over Trevin Giles (16-4 MMA, 7-4 UFC) for their welterweight fight.

Although they weren’t unanimous, other prelim fighters have big leads from our pickers. Roman Kopylov (10-2 MMA, 2-2 UFC) is 10-1 at middleweight over Claudio Ribeiro (11-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC). Jake Matthews (18-6 MMA, 11-6 UFC) is 10-1 at welterweight over Darrius Flowers (12-5-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC), the lone newcomer on the card. And Miranda Maverick (11-5 MMA, 4-3 UFC) has a 10-1 picks lead over Priscila Cachoeira (12-4 MMA, 4-4 UFC) in their card-opening women’s flyweight bout.

Check out all the main card picks below.

UFC 291 main card picks

	Poirier vs. Gaethje	Blachowicz vs. A. Pereira	de Lima vs. Lewis	Ferguson vs. Green	Chiesa vs. Holland
MMA Junkie readers’ consensus picks 114-73	Poirier (58%)	A. Pereira (57%)	Lewis (59%)	Green (59%)	Holland (68%)
Simon Samano @SJSamano 116-71	Poirier	Blachowicz	Lewis	Green	Chiesa
Nolan King @mma_kings 116-71	Poirier	Blachowicz	Lewis	Green	Holland
Matt Erickson @MattE 116-71	Gaethje	A. Pereira	de Lima	Green	Chiesa
Matthew Wells @MrMWells 113-74	Poirier	A. Pereira	Lewis	Green	Holland
Ken Hathaway @kenshathaway 112-75 2018, 2022 Champion	Poirier	Blachowicz	Lewis	Green	Holland
Mike Bohn @MikeBohn 111-76 2014 Champion	Poirier	Blachowicz	Lewis	Green	Holland
George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 111-76	Gaethje	Blachowicz	Lewis	Green	Holland
Farah Hannoun @Farah_Hannoun 108-79	Poirier	A. Pereira	Lewis	Green	Holland
Brian Garcia @thegoze 107-80 2017 Champion	Poirier	Blachowicz	Lewis	Green	Chiesa
Abbey Subhan @kammakaze 105-82	Poirier	Blachowicz	Lewis	Green	Holland
Danny Segura @dannyseguratv 101-86	Poirier	A. Pereira	Lewis	Green	Chiesa

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 291.