MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 290.
UFC 290 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 1-3-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 57-49-4
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by FanDuel.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Bo Nickal (-2500) vs. Val Woodburn (+1200)
Kicking off the paid portion of the card is an impromptu middleweight matchup between Bo Nickal and Val Woodburn.
Woodburn, who is stepping in on less than one week’s notice for Tresean Gore, is an undefeated fighter from the regional circuit that looks like he can find some success in the UFC. That said, it’s hard to see any success when it comes to taking on a three-time NCAA champion on short notice.
The pick is Nickal to change levels fast and find a finish on the floor in the first round.
Dan Hooker (+235) vs. Jailin Turner (-290)
Although I’m excited for this bout between Dan Hooker[/auotag] and [autotag]Jailin Turner, it’s also one of the harder fights for me to pick on this main card.
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, I believe that Hooker could be a live dog in this spot – especially since Turner missed weight.
Not only is Hooker someone who works the body, but he also carries some underrated offensive wrestling and fights at a fairly high pace.
However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Hooker hasn’t really looked the same since his five-round war with Dustin Poirier. “The Hangman” has also shown his own susceptibility to bodywork in the past, which bodes badly considering Turner’s consistent bodywork.
I’ll pick Turner to score a club-n-sub in round two.
Robert Whittaker (-400) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+300)
Filling out the main card is an important middleweight meeting between Robert Whittaker and Dricus Du Plessis.
Despite having an awkward style that shouldn’t work on paper, Du Plessis has been finding ways to win on the biggest stage, and that deserves to be acknowledged.
Nevertheless, I still find it difficult to see him getting past Whittaker, who, at this point, is putting his kids through college by killing off contenders at 185 pounds.
Even though Du Plessis does not seem like a person you want to make a habit of picking against, it’s hard to not see how inviting his style is to kicks and counters.
Du Plessis’ aggression will probably bring out the in “The Reaper,” so I’ll pick Whittaker to win by knockout in round two via his patent left hook.
Brandon Moreno (-190) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (+160)
The co-main event in Las Vegas features a fun flyweight title fight between Brandon Moreno and Alexandrea Pantoja.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this is a deceptively competitive fight to call.
Moreno may be the younger man and the sitting champion, but that doesn’t change the fact that Pantoja is 2-0 in their series (if you count their fight on season 24 of “The Ultimate Fighter”).
Moreover, Pantoja is an insanely skilled and dangerous fighter who traditionally hasn’t gotten the love he deserves – so I’d be careful about writing him off here.
In fact, despite being the older fighter, Pantoja will also be the fresher fighter heading into this Saturday’s fight when you consider the insane schedule that Moreno has been keeping since 2020.
It’s not a popular pick considering Moreno’s clear skills and improvements, but I’ll take a flier on Pantoja to do enough damage in the first half of the fight to earn an upset decision over the durable Moreno.
Alexander Volkanovski (-360) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+290)
The main event for UFC 290 features a fantastic featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this fight is much more tricky than the odds suggest.
Even though I’m someone whose been touting Volkanovski as the pound-for-pound king for some time, there’s no denying that southpaw kicks and crosses troubled him in his last fight opposite Islam Makhavhev.
Rodriguez may not be a dedicated southpaw, but he throws wicked hard kicks when switching to that stance and packs powerful crosses in tow. That said, I still have a hard time overlooking Rodriguez’s propensity to throw himself out of position or willingly work from his back.
For that reason, I’ll pick Volkanovski to recreate his own version of Frankie Edgar’s win back at UFC 211 by getting back to his ground-mauling ways and forcing a referee stoppage by the end of the fourth round.
