MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 290.
UFC 290 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Brandon Moreno (21-6-2 MMA,9-3-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’7″ Age: 29 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: TKO win over Deiveson Figueiredo (Jan. 21, 2023)
- Camp: Fortis MMA (Dallas/Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC flyweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Accurate left hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Hard leg and head kicks
^ Works well off of the lead side
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Solid scrambles and submissions
Alexandre Pantoja (25-5 MMA, 9-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’5″ Age: 33 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 67″
- Last fight: Submission win over Alex Perez (July 30, 2022)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Amateur muay Thai accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 8 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Counters well in combination
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Solid clinch fighter
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Slick submissions, good ground-and-pound
Point of interest: Familiar fisticuffs
The co-main event for UFC 290 features a fantastic flyweight title fight between two men who are very familiar with one another.
The first time Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja met was back in 2016 on the 24th season of “The Ultimate Fighter.”
Both men, who were much more raw at that point in their careers, engaged in a back-and-forth war for the entirety of the first frame. But come the second round, Pantoja decided to change things up and exercise his grappling advantages to score a submission win.
Their second meeting came two years later in a non-exhibition fight that went the distance.
Although each man showed improvements, Pantoja was able to effectively counter Moreno and punish him off of resets, earning himself a 10-8 in the first round. Despite Moreno hanging tough for the rest of the fight, the UFC decided to part ways with the Mexican standout – ending his first stint with the organization.
Since the UFC’s self-induced flyweight purge, Moreno has made a resurgent return with improvements in tow.
Moreno, who initially stepped onto the UFC scene as more of a grapple-first fighter, has since developed into a more complete and technical striking threat as he’s matured.
Still only 29, Moreno continues to display almost-unshakable composure, win or lose, almost as if he’s determined to finish the fight stronger than his foe. But when you look beyond the brief, brash moments that allow his character to shine, you can see a more mature countering game at play.
Always a fan of the left hook (both coming forward and off the counter), Moreno does a much better job of variating both his timing and targets, often working them off of a jab. The theme of lead-side savvy travels fluently for the Mexican fighter as Moreno also attaches lead-leg kicks to his combinations when feeling in stride.
Moreno also has a knack for navigating extended exchanges, but I’m not sure he’ll want to play on that street with Pantoja.
As his nickname “The Cannibal” would suggest, Pantoja is an offensive marauder who isn’t afraid to shed blood in order to feed himself.
An inherent pressure fighter, Pantoja is typically at his best when coming forward and looking to corrall opposition toward the cage. Although Pantoja’s technique and defense can leave much to be desired, the Brazilian bruiser can flow through offensive phases like second nature.
Demonstrating excellent instincts in the clinch, Pantoja has a good feel for body knees and strikes off the break. The 33-year-old veteran is also a deceptively savvy counter striker who packs a walloping right hand.
That said, if Pantoja looks to counter in combination or attempts to punish Moreno’s stance with leg kicks, then he, too, will need to be careful about the strikes that are coming back his way.
Point of interest: Protect your neck
Considering where Pantoja has previously found success in this series, no one should be shocked if the Brazilian challenger elects to engage in grappling exchanges.
Despite not officially working on his wrestling until teaming up with Henry Cejudo post-“TUF,” Pantoja has always been a dangerous threat from bodylock positions.
Parlaying off of his previously mentioned clinch striking, Pantoja is quick to lock his hand around his opposition and shuck them off to a side whenever possible.
Displaying good cage awareness, Pantoja wastes little time when it comes to wedging himself in between the fence and the back of his opposition. And once Pantoja is able to get the slightest bite on a position, the Shooto Brazil vet will jump at the opportunity to shift the fight’s dynamic.
That said, Moreno – who has earned his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt since their last meeting – has made some serious improvements that Pantoja will need to respect.
Starting off his career as more of a jiu-jitsu fighter, Moreno smartly swam toward the wrestling side of things (from an offensive standpoint) after being afforded the chance to train stateside through the UFC’s former developmental program.
Although Moreno was still not beyond being taken down or scoring submissions off his back, he offered plenty of glimpses of improvement during his first run with the promotion.
Moreno has been much more aggressive on the feet during this second stint, but doesn’t seem to be ignoring the other parts of his game. As far as grappling and wrestling scrambles go, Moreno was able to come out on top of stanzas against some of the division’s best grapplers in Jussier Formiga and Askar Askarov (who he clearly beat, in my opinion).
But for as good as Moreno’s grappling is concerned, he may want to pick his spots wisely with a fighter like Pantoja.
Even though the grappling exchanges in this series haven’t been prolonged, there’s no denying the distinct edge that Pantoja holds over most competitors in his class.
In victory or defeat, seldom will you see anyone get to Pantoja’s back or put him in precarious submission threats. In fact, the 15-year pro has a knack for turning negative positions around through his superb scrambling ability.
Pantoja is a demon of a scrambler, at his best he's up there with guys like Benavidez.
Always fighting grips, never allows himself to be flat on the floor, conscious of what openings his decision are creating and he addresses them proactively. pic.twitter.com/bv3Cktphfh— Feño (Ninja) (@fenoxsky) July 5, 2023
Pantoja, who has incredible transitional instincts and chair sits, should also have an edge when it comes to finding the back. And if Pantoja ends up on top, the American Top Team rep has some fantastic ground striking that’s not talked about enough.
Like a snake striking its prey on the nature channel, Pantoja possesses incredible accuracy and pop to the punches that slightly arc around his opponent’s guard.
Alexandre Pantoja ground-and-pound 🤌 pic.twitter.com/2zBacuyt9I
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) July 5, 2023
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Moreno -205 and Pantoja +158 via FanDuel.
Despite Moreno being 0-2 in head-to-head matchups with Pantoja, seeing him installed as the favorite doesn’t necessarily surprise me. Aside from proving his skills and grit in a four-part series opposite Deiveson Figueiredo, Moreno seems to be coming out of a chaotic part of his career and settling nicely into his new team and setup.
Now splitting his camps with Fortis MMA in Dallas, Moreno has acquired an excellent coach and strategist in Sayif Saud. Coach Saud is also known for his aggressive in-corner commands and his ability to keep his fighters on pace (as well as on track), which should come in handy for Moreno in this fight. That said, I’m not sure how aggressive Moreno will get given the stylistic matchup at hand.
Not only is Pantoja a dangerous counter striker who welcomes extended exchanges, but the Brazilian also has the grappling prowess to make Moreno pay for singular mistakes in transition.
However, if Moreno elects to fight at range and look to counter Pantoja and drag him into later rounds, then this fight could come down to narrow margins that involve the perception of damaging shots.
Given that Pantoja still somehow hasn’t seen a fourth round in his career, Moreno will obviously have the on-paper advantage in later frames. I also believe that Moreno will be the more likely party to win by knockout despite neither fighter being officially stopped by strikes in their career.
Nevertheless, I would still leave some room to be surprised on the Pantoja side.
Pantoja may seem to gas in some of his fights, but this could be due to the way he paces and recoups energy. Akin to a much more aggressive version of Jose Aldo, Pantoja appears to need his pockets to recoup whenever a finish doesn’t materialize.
In fact, Pantoja, in victory or defeat, traditionally tends to have fairly strong finishes in the final frames of fights. Even when experiencing his traditional Round 2 dump against a pace machine like Brandon Royval, Pantoja was still able to snatch victory from the potential jaws of defeat by capitalizing on just one positional error.
The Brazilian warhorse may have more miles on paper, but you could argue that a 33-year-old Pantoja is currently fresher given the strengths of their recent schedules.
Since the summer of 2021, Moreno has accrued three times the amount of fight camps under his belt and over ten times the amount of rounds fought (and that’s not even counting the camp changes and insane schedule that the Mexican kept through 2020).
Ultimately, this is a much trickier fight to call than what the current odds would suggest.
Even though I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see Pantoja look more post-prime than ever this weekend, I’ll be riding with another Brazilian veteran to upset the odds en route to being rewarded for taking the long road (which, in case you haven’t noticed, is often given to certain contenders depending on how the promotional winds are blowing).
You could really make a case for every possible result in a fight like this, but I’ll be officially picking Pantoja to win by decision.
The Cannibal may cut easily, but Moreno doesn’t exactly wear damage well either. Aside from potential instances of back control and grappling dominance, I suspect that Pantoja gets off enough leg kicks and headshots that both sway the judges and impact Moreno early.
