MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 286.
UFC 286 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+.
Leon Edwards (20-3 MMA, 12-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Kamaru Usman (Aug. 20, 2022)
- Camp: Team Renegade (Birmingham, England)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC welterweight champion
+ BAMMA welterweight title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good lateral footwork
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Hard head and body kicks
+ Superb clinch game
^ Grip awareness, elbows off the break, etc.
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Solid defensive and offensive fundamentals
+ Excellent transitional grappler
+/- 1-0 in rematches
Kamaru Usman (20-2 MMA, 15-1 UFC)
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 35 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Knockout loss to Leon Edwards (Aug. 20, 2022)
- Camp: ONX Labs (Denver)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC welterweight champion
+ NCAA Division-II national champ
+ 3x NCAA All-American
+ 9 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good feints and footwork
+ Improved overall striking
^ Jabs, bodywork, etc.
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ In the open or against the fence
+ Solid top game and control
^ Rides and transitions intelligently
+/- 2-1 in rematches
+/- 6-1 against UFC-level southpaws
Point of interest: The third time's the charm
The main event for UFC 286 features a rubber match for the welterweight title between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman.
Their first meeting took place back in 2015 when both men were still looking to make a name for themselves and develop their games. The first round was the most competitive of the three contested, with Usman showing some initial discomfort when dealing with Edwards’ southpaw stance.
Usman eventually got a takedown on his third attempt, setting the tone for things to come. In the second round, Usman smartly gained some respect on the feet with his left hook, which, in turn, allowed for the takedowns to come easier and more often en route to a unanimous-decision victory.
Both men ended up blossoming into more complete fighters by the time their rematch rolled around at UFC 278 last year, which was an entertaining and deceptively-competitive contest.
Although many seem to selectively remember it as a one-sided affair before the fifth-round knockout occurred, Edwards had his fair of moments in the first 23 minutes of the fight.
Aside from clearly winning the first frame by putting the then-champion in some precarious positions on the floor, Edwards quietly found success on the feet by utilizing subtle tactics like lateral movement and stance switches.
Despite Edwards doing his best striking work in open space and on the front foot, moving laterally and shifting stances helped afford the English fighter some breathing room whenever Usman was able to force him toward the outskirts of the cage.
Not only can stance switches encourage extra thought from the opposition, but it can also assist the diversification of attacks.
Edwards, for example, fought a lot more out of orthodox in their last outing, consistently mixing things up to the body and legs from both sides. That said, Edwards obviously found some of his best success when building off of the leg and bodywork from his southpaw stance.
🪡🧵#TheSouthpawReport for #UFC286: (will add to this thread as the week goes on)
• Kamaru Usman is 6-1 against UFC-level southpaws (wins: Yakovlev, Edwards, Maia, RDA, Covington X2; loss: Edwards rematch)
Edwards built on classic SP attacks en route to finding a late finish: pic.twitter.com/nbo1S0LYpi
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 15, 2023
Although the result referenced above may still loom large in Usman’s mind, the former champion has a lot of positives that he can build off of as well.
We may not have seen as many stance switches from Usman as of late, but “The Nigerian Nightmare” still shows a knack for corralling opponents toward the fence in a striking setting. In fact, outside of a few clever clinch turns from Edwards, Usman was largely able to control the cage for the main middle chunk of the fight.
Usman even landed more elbows than Edwards in closed quarters, which was something that I was not expecting prior to their rematch (despite picking Usman to win). However, when going back to rewatch the fight, I was somewhat surprised to see Edwards quietly wreaking havoc from over-under clinch scenarios.
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
As alluded to in the previous section, Edwards, despite largely getting out-wrestled throughout the fight, was able to find quiet moments of success whenever the two were in an over-under position inside of the clinch.
Not only did Edwards utilize a tie-up off of an over-under to sneakily score a trip takedown on Usman to take the first round of their rematch, but the now-champion also used some of Usman’s own tactics against him (which wouldn’t be the first time the Englishman cribbed off of Usman).
Leon Edwards threatens with an inside trip to draw a reaction from Gunnar Nelson that exposes his hips to a rear body lock trip angle (a la Kamaru Usman), which he then uses to secure a leg ride with a wrist feed for cross control. #UFCVegas21 pic.twitter.com/JZYqjYPn5H
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 10, 2021
In fact, if you go back to the second round of their rematch, you’ll see Edwards mimic the overhooking wrist-feeds that you see fighters like Usman and Jon Jones work to great effect. Aside from stymying the grappling intentions of Usman, Edwards also used these tie-ups to land hard body knees and reverse his position from along the fence.
Unfortunately for Edwards, Usman was still ultimately able to score with more shot-based takedowns and secure control time through smart and conservative positions like a rear-waist cinch.
However, regardless if it was well-timed shots or fatigue that allowed Edwards to get into negative spots, it should be noted that Usman primarily got to those rear positions due to his opponent willingly giving their back.
As Jimmy Smith smartly noted when calling Usman’s fight with Raphael dos Anjos, the former lightweight was able to repeatedly get out from underneath Usman by giving his back to stand since there wasn’t any submission threat being established.
Although Usman usually banks on his opponent breaking well before he does, he may want to consider making more hay (at least from an impact/damage perspective) with these positions this time around. Otherwise, Edwards may – once again – try and get Usman to grapple more than he intends to.
That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if Usman comes in with more of an intention to wrestle, which could make for a long night at the office either way.
Say no more fam https://t.co/Jzm3uPqRvz pic.twitter.com/b7hrAOxnRF
— Miguel Class (@MigClass) March 14, 2023
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the former champ, listing Usman -245 and Ewards +205 via Tipico Sportsbook.
Despite it feeling borderline disrespectful to see a sitting champion clock in as nearly a 2-1 underdog, I don’t disagree with the favorite designation for Usman.
MMA is a real fickle sport, but there’s a reason why many had Usman as their No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter prior to his loss.
Whether we’re talking about Usman’s preternatural ability to pressure or his high-percentage choices in transition, the 11-year pro has the more proven and reliable process between the two. So, for that reason alone, no one should be shocked if Usman is able to rinse, wash and repeat his way to victory this weekend.
Still, I somewhat surprisingly find myself slightly leaning the other way.
Usman may be the more powerful athlete and process-based fighter, but I see Edwards as the one with more potential for adjustments and opportunities this time around.
Even though Edwards primarily fought from negative positions last August, he smartly incorporated past tactics that prior Usman opponents had success with into his own game plan. From the bodywork that Colby Covington scored with to the scrambling tactics and leg kicks that dos Anjos used, Edwards and his team demonstrate the ability to learn from the past.
But regardless of what Edwards’ game plan is, most of the speculation will probably be focused on Usman.
Aside from dealing with a myriad of injuries both throughout his career and before booking this fight, Usman will also be attempting to turn around from a potentially life-changing knockout against the very man who did it to him.
Should Usman come in healthy and get back to his stance-shifting aggression, then perhaps he can swarm his way to victory as many predicted would happen in the first fight. I, on other hand, don’t think that a wrestler-boxer dipping or crouching into kicks from the southpaw side is as uncommon as most seem to assume.
That said, seldom do rematches play out the same way in MMA. Whether Usman looks uncomfortable or is back to his competitive self, I suspect we’re in for some classic controversy across the pond with Edwards squeaking out a win on the scorecards.
