MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 285.
UFC 285 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Jon Jones (26-1 MMA, 20-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 35 Weight: N/A lbs. Reach: 84.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Dominick Reyes (February 8, 2020)
- Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC light heavyweight champion
+ JUCO national wrestling title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Creative and dynamic striker
^ Preternatural instincts and improv
+ Effectively dictates range
^ Teep kicks, oblique kicks, hand posts
+ Deceptively effective inside clinch
^ Superb hand-fighting /grip disruption
+ Multiple takedown tools
+ Devastating ground striker
+ Always looks to secure rounds
^ Consistently comes on late
Ciryl Gane (11-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 32 Weight: 247 lbs. Reach: 81″
- Last fight: TKO win over Tai Tuivasa (Sept. 3, 2022)
- Camp: MMA Factory (France)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC interim heavyweight champion
+ Regional MMA title
+ 2x French muay Thai champion
+ 5 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Creative feints and footwork
^ Changers tempo/shifts stances
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Goes to the body and attacks the legs
+ Works well inside the clinch
^ Solid wrist controls and setups
+ Shows surprising submission game
Point of interest: Kicks and counters
The main event for UFC 285 features a vacant title bout between two fighters who are familiar with kicks and their associated counters.
Despite being blessed with some natural gifts, Jon Jones’ almost-unflinching computing of striking exchanges has helped him stay ahead of his contemporaries throughout the years.
Seldom will you see Jones throw the same sequence of strikes within the same minute or even round – unless, that is, he is trying to set up his opposition or walk them into something sinister. And with him being one of the most tried and true stance switchers in MMA, Jones can exercise a plethora of options available to him to help further his agenda.
Whether he’s hiding behind hand posts or disrupting his opponent’s approach with oblique kicks and body assaults, Jones is clearly not shy when it comes to utilizing his length. Still, I would also argue that Jones has proven he isn’t reliant on it either.
Not only does Jones have the aforementioned abilities to navigate exchanges, but he also has made quiet strides in his boxing ability in an effort to help shore up the range that most of his opponents risk life and limb to maintain. Even against the breakneck pressure that Daniel Cormier brought to their second meeting, Jones was able to pivot or shift his way into counterpunches like never before in his career.
That said, Jones also has experienced his hardest shots when shifting in or out of this range and is not beyond getting himself crossed up in retreat – something that could prove costly against someone who can match him in both size and speed.
Enter Ciryl Gane.
A former soccer player who found a taste for muay Thai, Gane appears to represent the hopes of many in regard to the potential of heavyweight athletes transitioning into mixed martial arts.
Aside from looking the part aesthetically, Gane, more importantly, demonstrates an ability to both sponge and sequence techniques, moving well beyond his years.
Showing that he can switch stances with substance, Gane seems competent from both sides, smoothly shifting the tempo of his attacks. From changing the speed of his kicks to pot-shotting punches and checks, Gane appears fully capable of both frustrating and punishing his opposition.
Gane’s distance management and proprioception appear to be on point, but he’ll still need to be mindful of the looming grappling threats from Jones.
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering the biggest on-paper disparity exists within the wrestling realm, I’ll be curious to see if Jones looks for the path of least resistance.
Although Jones has elected to strike more and more in the latter years of his career, the former light heavyweight champion initially cut his teeth as an aggressive clinch fighter who had a knack for finding damaging positions.
Even in Jones’ first fight against Cormier, a world-class wrestler and all-time MMA clinch artist in his own right, Jones was able to shut down his offense in close by utilizing creative wrist controls to disrupt the former light heavyweight champion’s game and open up his own.
Using his long frame to multitask inside the clinch, Jones can implement wrenching over-hooks (a la the ones that famously injured Glover Teixeira’s shoulder), all while using his free hand to either strike or help secure wrist-feeds to his over-hooking hand. This intricate tie-up also allows Jones the leverage to come over the top with elbows regardless of whether he is still holding onto wrists.
I often reference Makhachev in relation to wrist controls, but Jon Jones has been popularizing hand fighting for some time.
Hand traps to elbows, overhooks that parlay into wrist-feeds (which setup elbows, knees and shoulder strikes), defensive wrist pins that open up takedowns: pic.twitter.com/bBgcDxP5Jm
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 1, 2023
For those who have not wrestled or grappled in some form, wrist control is the unsung gatekeeper of advancing position, as a solid hand-fighter can befuddle even the best of grapplers.
However, in Gane’s defense, the former French muay Thai champion is not exactly a slouch in the hand-fighting department.
Comporting himself well in closed quarters, Gane displays both competence and comfort inside of the clinch. Utilizing diligent wrist controls, Gane can keep tabs on his opponent’s intentions, all while keeping hard knees or sneaky elbows in play.
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) January 20, 2022
Gane isn’t beyond hitting footsweeps or looking for takedowns of his own in this space, I’m just not sure how much he’ll want to grapple with someone like Jones. The French fighter may appear to welcome the grappling game of Jones while the cameras are on, but it was a willingness to engage on the floor that got Gane into trouble in his last title fight opposite Francis Ngannou (the “baddest man on the planet”).
Even though Gane still showed some solid grappling glimpses in that fight, I hope that someone on the team of “Bon Gamin” is smart enough to prioritize counter-wrestling tactics ahead of Saturday; otherwise, Gane could be in big trouble.
Whether it be in the clinch or on the floor, Jones’ hand-fighting skills and positional understanding (when he’s at his best) allow him to almost mimic one of those pictures of a giant squid consuming a ship – simultaneously denying his opposition space while taking them into deeper and deeper waters.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
Despite oddsmakers setting the historically smaller man as the underdog, public money has flipped the line in favor of the American, listing Jones -155 and Gane +135 via Tipico Sportsbook.
Between Jones’ popularity to past pound-for-pound status, seeing him as the odds-on favorite comes as no surprise.
Not only does Jones deserve the distinction, but the former light heavyweight champ is also the more proven and well-rounded fighter on paper. Should Jones exercise his obvious advantages in the wrestling department, then no one should be shocked to see him ground and pound Gane en route to a successful comeback.
The potential problem, however, is that I’m not sure where Jones’ wrestling (much less his overall abilities) is at after three years away from the sport.
Although Jones has been able to hit takedowns in his more recent fights, one could argue that he hasn’t demonstrated a dominant wrestling or clinch performance since his first fight with Cormier back in 2015 – more than eight years ago.
Sure, Jones was able to eventually take down a limping and injured Alexander Gustafsson after two competitive rounds in their rematch, but there are a ton of caveats to that performance and others throughout that stretch of his career. That said, Jones has made some clear efforts in the last year that trend well for anyone hoping to see him return to his wrestling roots.
Not only has Jones enlisted a Greco-Roman wrestling coach for this camp, but the Jackson-Wink product has also done some cross-training with Henry Cejudo and the Fight Ready team to help dust off his tools. Regardless of whether or not Gane is playing up his submission game for the cameras, I don’t exactly trust his camp to prioritize the proper game plan or tactics if Jones comes in looking to wrestle.
Even though Jones hasn’t had a dedicated wrestling performance since his meeting with Chael Sonnen a decade ago, I suspect that we will likely see him get after it early with Gane. But if Jones fails to make any hay from secured takedowns or entanglements early, then it could mean that the 35-year-old veteran could get stuck having to carry his newfound heavyweight frame for the rest of the 25 scheduled minutes – – which is where things get tricky in regards to prognostications.
The only other UFC light heavyweight champions to successfully attempt this feat were Randy Couture and Cormier.
Couture came out of retirement to move back up to heavyweight to take the title from Tim Silvia at approximately 10 years and 22 fights into his career, while Cormier accomplished his title-winning heavyweight return at UFC 226, nine years and 21 fights into his career.
Jones will have age and other factors on his side in this equation, but he is still ultimately attempting this feat 15 years into what has been a 28-fight career. It will also be the longest layoff of Jones’ professional existence by nearly 20 months.
I won’t be shocked in the slightest if Jones is able to once again make history, but I still find myself semi-surprisingly leaning the other way.
Despite everyone being down on Gane for his grappling choices against Ngannou, I’d be careful about overly criticizing the Frenchman and overlooking the amazing technique from the latest heavyweight champion.
In fact, outside of some bad choices to go for submissions, Gane showed some solid positional awareness in regard to using the cage or single-leg tactics to stand.
If Gane is good enough to survive Jones’ early grappling efforts, then we’ll likely be in for a slow-paced kickboxing bout that goes late. And in that sort of fight, I can’t help but favor Gane. The MMA Factory fighter may lack a consistent pressuring presence, but Gane does do the one thing that has traditionally troubled Jones—and that’s countering kicks.
In both victory and defeat, it’s not been uncommon to see Jones gingerly walk out of the cage, as his kick-heavy approach to dissuade pressure seems to perhaps come at a cost to his frame. When fighters like Cormier, Gustafsson, Thiago Santos, or Dominick Reyes have aggressively countered off of Jones’ kicking inclinations, they were able to find some of the best success we’ve seen scored on the champion to date.
🪡: #TheSouthpawReport for #UFC285 (will add to this thread as the week goes on)
• Ciryl Gane is listed as orthodox but he primarily fights southpaw with a dynamic rear kick that variates targets. Jon Jones is officially 5-0 opposite UFC SPs, but kicks from SP have had success: pic.twitter.com/TkKAeVmIbH
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 1, 2023
Not only does Gane have a natural inclination to counter kicks, but I believe that an athletic and speedy southpaw kicker with size parity will bring about stylistic problems for Jones.
I wouldn’t recommend picking against greats like Jones long-term, but you can only cheat death for so long in this game. Whether it be by injury or by building off of bodywork, I’m officially siding with Gane to score the upset via a stoppage by the fourth round.
