MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 285.
UFC 285 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Valentina Shevchenko (23-3 MMA, 12-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’5″ Age: 34 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 67″
- Last fight: Decision win over Taila Santos (June 12, 2022)
- Camp: Team Shevchenko (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC flyweight champion
+ 17x muay Thai and K-1 championships
+ 9x IMFA Champ (56-2 as a pro)
+ Tae kwon do black belt (2nd dan)
+ 6 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Excellent footwork
^ Seldom out of position
+ Accurate check hook and counter cross
+ Hard knees, elbows and kicks
+ Crafty clinch game
^ Good trips and tosses
+ Strong positional grappler
^ Prefers passing to crucifix
Alexa Grasso (15-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’5″ Age: 29 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66″
- Last fight: Decision win over Viviane Araujo (Oct. 15, 2022)
- Camp: Lobo Gym (Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume striker
+ Solid footwork
+ Puts together punches well
^ Punctuates with accurate kicks
+ Effective in the clinch
^ Goood application of over/underhooks
+ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Improved transitional grappling
+/- 0-1 against UFC-level southpaws
Point of interest: The cost of counters
The co-main event for UFC 285 features a flyweight title fight between two fighters who are familiar with the cost of counters.
Alexa Grasso, who was introduced to boxing when she was young, appears to be very well-schooled in the striking department. Doing a decent job of keeping her feet underneath her, Grasso will cut angles to her opponent’s weak side to exit or counter. Utilizing excellent lateral movement, the 29-year-old maintains a composure that speaks to a childhood spent training and drilling.
Putting together her punches more fluently once finding her rhythm, Grasso will typically punctuate her combinations with hard kicks, switching her stances when feeling in stride. Although that approach can still sometimes get her caught upright when coming in, Grasso has made measurable improvements to that area in recent years, moving her head slightly off center with her punches.
That said, Grasso will need to be mindful of the counters coming from Valentina Shevchenko.
Also indoctrinated into martial arts through her family, Shevchenko has been a practitioner of combat sports since she was 4, amassing multiple titles in K-1 and the IFMA (the same organization where she fought and beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times).
A counter fighter by nature, Shevchenko wields all the weapons that a southpaw should never leave home without, keeping everything from check hooks to counter crosses on a hair trigger. Whenever someone tries to step off to the champion’s weak side, she offers answers in the form of spinning assaults that pair perfectly with liver kicks to help keep her opposition corralled.
Should Grasso get too aggressive and come in hot, then we could see Shevchenko switch phases and go to the clinch.
Point of interest: Clinch country
Considering that the clinch is quietly a huge part of each competitor’s game, tie-ups will likely be the key junction in this contest.
As eluded to in the previous section, Shevchenko has a knack for hitting takedowns in a countering fashion that may come to light in closed quarters. Like we’ve seen in past Shevchenko fights, fighters who come in hot on the champion tend to get grounded accordingly – particularly when trying to do so from the clinch.
No longer underrated inside this space, Shevchenko possesses all the tools you would expect from a muay Thai practitioner. Not only does Shevchenko wield mean elbows off the break, but the Kyrgyzstani is also better about getting her back off of the fence at this weight class.
Valentina Shevchenko making hay with head position in order to help her counter-clinching efforts #UFC261 pic.twitter.com/xnjd6j5xad
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 23, 2021
Although many high-level strikers have failed to develop grappling games in MMA, I think that fighters who come from traditional muay Thai backgrounds bring an aspect of grappling that is typically understated. A devastating striking art with an often-overlooked emphasis on clinch wrestling, Shevchenko embraced and excelled in the grappling aspects of muay Thai, which in turn granted her success while competing in that sport (as well as this one).
Even when taken down, Shevchenko offers credible submission threats off of her back and is mostly positionally sound when playing from topside. That said, no one should be sleeping on the grappling strides that Grasso has been quietly making in recent years.
Grasso may not be known for her wrestling, but she has shown that her under and overhook awareness inside the clinch is on point when it comes to defending takedowns and creating separations for strikes. Whether she is hoisting high with an overhook or digging deep for an underhook, the Mexican fighter will not likely go down easy in these scenarios.
If Grasso is grounded, she shows an active guard and an excellent ability to create a scramble, something that has helped her get-up urgency improve over the latest stretch of her career.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are confidently backing the sitting champion, listing Shevchenko -750 and Grasso +500 via Tipico Sportsbook.
Even though I always shake my head whenever I see odds this wide in MMA, I can’t say that I’m surprised.
I’ve been a big fan of Grasso since seeing her fight on the Invicta stage years ago and she’s looked great since moving up to flyweight. That said, I have a hard time seeing the upside for her in this spot.
Unless Shevchenko makes similar mistakes to her last fight (in regard to being over-aggressive when trying to get things back), then I suspect that Grasso will be up against a strong and savvy fighter that can nullify her speed and volume.
I also believe that Shevchenko’s southpaw kicking style will stack up well against a fighter who primarily boxes and dips with a high guard in tow.
Valentina Shevchenko capitalizing on previous bodywork, as well as Eye’s dipping propensities, to land a flush head kick knockout back at UFC 238. #UFC261 pic.twitter.com/LtNXOUO9k3
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 23, 2021
Grasso’s game will probably bring out the best in Shevchenko – which means that this contest could end early.
I can’t get the image of a crucifix out of my head given the past success of previous Grasso opponents, so I’ll pick Shevchenko to force a stoppage via strikes by the end of round two.
