MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 284.
UFC 284 takes place Saturday at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Islam Makhachev (23-1 MMA, 12-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 31 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70.5″
- Last fight: Submission win over Charlies Oliveira (Oct. 22, 2022)
- Camp: Eagles MMA/American Kickboxing Academy (Dubai)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC lightweight champion
+ Combat sambo world champion
+ 4x Russian sambo champion
+ Master of sports in combat sambo
+ 4 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Improved overall striking
^ Solid variance in shot selection
+ Hard kicks from the left side
+ Good takedown ability
^ Favors chaining off singles
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Excellent trips, knees and tosses
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Wrist control, rides, passes
Alexander Volkanovski (25-1 MMA, 12-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 34 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Max Holloway (July 2, 2022)
- Camp: Freestyle MMA/Bang Tao Muay Thai (Thailand)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ National wrestling gold medalist
+ 12 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent feints and footwork
+ Accurate shot selection and counters
^ Hard hooks and leg kicks
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Takedowns, transitions, scrambles
+ Good top game
+/- 5-0 at lightweight (all finishes)
+/- 1-0 against UFC-level southpaws
Point of interest: Striking with a southpaw
The main event for UFC 284 features a superfight for the lightweight title, as featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski moves up in weight to challenge southpaw Islam Makhachev at 155 pounds.
An acclaimed wrestler-turned-rugby player, Volkanovski initially stepped onto the scene as a come-forward fighter who typically approached the pocket like an oncoming juggernaut from his compact stance. A natural athlete, Volkanovski shows little issue when having to crash distance with his patent kicks and crosses, strikes that have been typically set up off of prodding jabs.
However, since incorporating the influences of Brad Riddell and his sister gym City Kickboxing, Volkanovski has sharpened his feints, footwork, and overall striking fundamentals, measuring and moving in space more smoothly and on balance than before. The 34-year-old Australian will now change up his combination approach, doing things like leading with stance-debasing kicks and finishing off combinations with a long lead hand.
It’s a small detail, but I love when fighters use balance-disrupting leg kicks to get beats on their opposition like Alex Volkanovski does to Chad Mendes here…
Debases the stance with an inside leg kick, then utilizes shifts, prodding shots and a high guard to close in #UFC266 pic.twitter.com/lKJlN2ndIP
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) September 23, 2021
Volkanovski also has taken some of the feinting swagger from his stablemates, showing or throwing away certain shots to land others with a bigger picture in mind. Although Volkanovski doesn’t have a large striking sample size opposite notable southpaws, the featherweight kingpin has shown some promising signs beyond your classic outside-foot awareness.
When looking back at Volkanovski’s war with the stance-switching Brian Ortega, the Aussie – despite experiencing brief moments of turbulence – was able to find answers for Ortega’s southpaw looks.
🧵🪡 #TheSouthpawReport for #UFC284 (will add to this thread as the week goes)
• Alex Volkanovski is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Kasuya) but offers some interesting looks against the stance-switching Ortega, utilizing lead-hand traps to get a beat on exchanges. pic.twitter.com/N6zMup0fKF
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 7, 2023
Utilizing superb hand-fighting tactics, Volkanovski subtly trapped the lead hand of Ortega with his own lead hand in order to take an advantageous angle of approach. And once Volkanovski was able to get a bite off of his grips, he parlayed that momentum into immediate returns in combination.
But for as good as Volkanovski’s boxing has gotten, his stature and style will still require him to be mindful of kicks and counters of Makhachev.
Fighting out of a southpaw stance, Makhachev has shown to be much more than a sambo practitioner since stepping onto the UFC scene.
Fellow southpaw Adriano Martins may have been able to audit Makhachev’s early aggression with a perfectly placed check hook at UFC 192, but the Dagestani fighter has been steadily making improvements to his striking since his lone setback.
Now, it is not uncommon to see Makhachev play at a much safer range when looking to set up his shots and strikes. Whether Makhachev is sniping crosses down the centerline or mixing the targets of his kicking attacks, the 31-year-old does a solid job of constantly changing his level and variating his shot selection.
Makhachev’s patented check right hook is still a key player in regards to countering presence that’s worth watching out for in this fight, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him press more of his clinch striking in this matchup.
Favoring single and double collar-tie variations in the clinch, Makhachev does a good job of utilizing well-placed knees to manipulate defenses and create openings. That said, Volkanovski is incredibly active and capable in closed quarters and will likely make Makhachev work for any ground he’s looking to gain.
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering where Makhachev funnels a majority of his fights, no one should be shocked if the lightweight champion looks for takedowns early and often.
Akin to his now-coach, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev also scores a large part of his takedowns off of chaining attacks in clinch space.
Whether Makhachev is working from his favored single-leg position or hitting slick trips and tosses from tie-ups, the product from Dagestan displays solid adaptability in the wrestling realm.
Still, Volkanovski is far from a slouch in these scenarios.
Since reining in his aggression and fighting smarter, Volkanovski appears to be even harder to meaningfully take down due to his overall awareness of positioning – particularly against the fence.
When it comes to takedown defense, Volk is not beyond being caught off guard. That said, he does well at defending singles/attempts along the fence.
General mix of fundamentals involving grip separations and using underhooks and/or superior frames and head position to turn ppl. pic.twitter.com/MTBmeNknLS
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 7, 2023
Even when taken down, Volkanovski displays solid head positioning and smart details like a low underhook (limiting front-choke counters) when looking to execute things like half-guard getups.
Alex Volkanovski’s counter-grappling notes—love that he uses my favorite MMA getup: half guard to single-leg getups
Doesn’t reap the leg for extra leverage but nails the crucial detail of LOW underhooks BELOW the ass, as this helps thwart front-choke counters/allows re-wrestling pic.twitter.com/emQOSraVXw
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 7, 2023
Offensively, Volkanovski seems to stay consistent with said trends, appearing to prefer more efficient options like inside trips from the clinch as opposed to the traditional double and single-legs against the fence that he used to favor. And when Volkanovski can establish top position, he embraces his honey badger-like sensibilities by staking claims to positions through punishing strikes and rides.
Nevertheless, whether we’re talking about mat wrestling or transitional grappling in general, it can be hard to get a beat on Makhachev.
Aside from having tremendous hip and grip awareness, Makhachev is one of my favorite fighters to point to in regard to demonstrating the importance of wrist control.
As I always say, WRIST CONTROL is the unsung hero in all martial arts and Islam Makhachev is a great example to look to in MMA
Post disruptions, wrist-feeds to trips, defensive grip separations that opens up knees, cross-wrist rides for strikes & wrist pins for submission setups pic.twitter.com/LQ1nE4981q
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 8, 2023
An unsung hero in regard to effective martial arts techniques, Makhachev’s quiet control of hands and wrists helps stymie his opposition’s advances while he furthers his own.
Makhachev also employs stellar legwork that goes beyond his standing clinch work, as it’s not uncommon to see the 13-year pro incorporate crab rides in conjunction with back attacks (as seen in his finish of Thiago Moises).
Against Thiago Moises, Islam Makhachev used wrist controls to land some solid ground strikes that forced his foe to turn and turtle as the themes of wrist control – in conjunction with a sweet crab ride – continued to eventually allow Makhachev to find his finish. #UFC284 pic.twitter.com/seHjk8cEb9
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) February 8, 2023
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the larger man, listing Makhachev -365 and Volkanovski +300 via Tipico Sportsbook.
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, I caution anyone who is outright discounting Volkanosvki – particularly due to his size.
Size may matter, but mixed martial arts is a game that is heavily influenced by styles. And sometimes, it can actually be more difficult to grapple with a smaller foe if that person is able to stymie your efforts for control and force you to work at an undesirable pace.
In other words, if Makhachev is not able to display dominance or find a finish within the first three frames, then don’t be surprised if things get interesting down the stretch.
Not only can Volkanovski hold his own inside of the clinch, but he’s also been working with notable submission grappler Craig Jones, who specializes in leg locks and anti-wrestling techniques (amongst other things).
Albeit more of a proverbial ace-in-the-hole, leg locks could be an interesting dynamic considering the questionable defense Makhachev has shown toward said tactics in fights with both Thiago Moises and Chris Wade. Still, when setting the nitpicking aside, it’s ultimately hard not to trust the proven grappling process from Makhachev.
Although I fully expect his stamina to be tested this Saturday, Makhachev has demonstrated a solid ability to fight at pace when he needs to. I also may rate Volkanovski higher as a striker, but Makhachev’s southpaw savvy is an underrated aspect of his game that should help him stay afloat for as long as they’re fighting in that phase.
Don’t get me wrong: Volkanovski could replicate Makhachev’s lone loss by re-visiting the check-right hooks that he had on display opposite Ortega – I just suspect that Makhachev’s chances at a finish are a bit higher.
That said, I believe that Volkanovski will be a difficult fighter to finish due to his incredible scrambling ability, submission defense and cardio. I’ll officially pick Makhachev to win by decision, but please don’t be surprised when Volkanovski, win or lose, proves why many like myself consider him the pound-for-pound king by making this more competitive than both the betting lines and the general public are projecting.
Prediction: Makhachev by decision
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 284.
