MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 283.
UFC 283 takes place Saturday at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 3-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2023: 3-2-0
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Paul Craig (+160) vs. Johnny Walker (-190)
Saturday’s main card opens up with a strangely attractive light heavyweight meeting between Paul Craig and Johnny Walker.
Although Walker is favored to knock Craig out with something dynamic like a flying knee, I’m not sure I can trust this iteration of Walker (or any other, for that matter) to reliably create opportunities to land his big shots. Walker has also shown a suspect chin throughout his career, while Craig sports solid durability with the option to recover via grappling engagements.
Couple that with Craig’s quiet striking improvements since working with Chris Bungard and company, and I’ll take a flier on the Scottish fighter to score a somewhat surprising win on the scorecards.
Lauren Murphy (+360) vs. Jessica Andrade (-475)
Filling out the main card is a battle between ranked flyweights, Lauren Murphy and Jessica Andrade.
Despite my official pick, I’ll be very curious to see more of Murphy’s improvements since working with coaches like Sean Madden. Murphy is already mean in the clinch and demonstrated better wrestling in her last outing opposite Meisha Tate.
That said, Murphy still shows a susceptibility to bodywork that ultimately has me leaning toward the Brazilian woodchipper that is “Bate Estaca.” I’ll officially take Andrade to snatch up an opportunistic Guillotine choke in round 2 after forcing a shot out of Murphy.
Gilbert Burns (-475) vs. Neil Magny (+360)
Serving as a solid action fight at 170 pounds is a showdown between Gilbert Burns and Neil Magny.
Although I can see a world where Magny is able to survive the early storm and make things interesting late, superior submission fighters who can counter and attack the legs standing have traditionally been the American’s kryptonite.
I also suspect that the miles are finally starting to catch up with Magny, so I’ll side with Burns to score an emphatic finish in the first round –– likely by submission.
Deiveson Figueiredo (+105) vs. Brandon Moreno (-125)
The co-main event in Rio features a fourth flyweight title affair between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, early kicking initiatives have been quietly crucial in determining a winner throughout their series. However, despite scoring two of the contest for Figueiredo, I suspect that the durability of the 35-year-old flyweight is finally starting to crack at this stage of his career.
I ultimately have a hard time trusting Figueiredo until he finally moves up to bantamweight, so I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Moreno to take the scorecards with superior counters and punctuations in extended exchanges.
Glover Teixeira (+120) vs. Jamahal Hill (-140)
The main event for UFC 283 features a vacant title fight at 205 pounds between Glover Teixeira and Jamahal Hill.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, no one should be shocked if Hill is able to hurt Teixeira to the body or clean him out with a check right hook. That said, I believe that Teixeira can still suck young men into his spin cycle of submissions and grinding ground and pound, even at his advanced age.
Glover Teixeira turning partial losses of consciousness into dominant, fight-ending positions is one of my favorite MMA things: pic.twitter.com/4s2OhittgU
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) March 4, 2021
Perhaps it’s my admitted fandom for MMA’s greatest sportsman, but I’ll ride with Teixeira to survive yet another storm en route to a submission win in the third round.
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