MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 280.
UFC 280 takes place Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNews and ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 4-1
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2022: 104-60-1
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive. My goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado …
Katlyn Chookagian (+170) vs. Manon Fiorot (-220)
Despite having incredibly exciting fights at lightweight and bantamweight on the same proverbial shelf, the UFC matchmakers have decided to open the paid portion of the card with a women’s flyweight bout between Katlyn Chookagian and Manon Fiorot.
Although I don’t disagree with Fiorot being favored, this fight will likely play out much closer to a pick’em. It’s hard to be confident in Chookagian after she missed weight for the first time in her career, but I have a sneaky suspicion that the newly-minted Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt repeats her last performance opposite a southpaw striker (Antonina Shevchenko).
Even if Chookagian doesn’t aggressively pursue takedowns, Fiorot has shown to be more than willing when it comes to initiating grappling exchanges of her own – – something that I can almost guarantee will cost the French striker in the future.
I’m not sure if Chookagian will pull off a submission, but I do think the American can use the threat of her grappling to help herself get ahead of Fiorot for the win.
Beneil Dariush (+155) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-205)
Serving as a solid bit of matchmaking is a battle between ranked lightweights, Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot.
No one should be surprised if Dariush is able to out-grapple Gamrot, especially over the course of three rounds. However, despite rooting for Dariush in this spot, I suspect that the speed, cardio and output of Gamrot will be too much.
I’m predicting a high-paced war that sees Gamrot outworking a tiring Dariush down the stretch.
Petr Yan (-280) vs. Sean O'Malley (+210)
In what should be a fun fight for as long as it lasts, Petr Yan will square off with Sean O'Malley at 135 pounds.
Despite resembling Ziggy Sobotka from “The Wire” and having the loud persona to boot, O’Malley has more skills than his detractors will give him credit for. Nevertheless, I’m not sure that O’Malley’s length or southpaw savvy will provide him shelter from Yan’s multi-layered assaults.
Unless O’Malley can make some serious hay early (while Yan is still collecting his reads), then I see the Tiger Muay Thai product chopping down the American from the legs up for a third-round finish.
Aljamain Sterling (-180) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (+140)
The co-main event on Yas Island features a fantastic bantamweight title fight between Aljamain Sterling and T.J. Dillashaw.
Even though I came into this week leaning toward the sitting champion, I ended up going the other way. As I said in my in-depth breakdown, Dillashaw shows the ability to limit back exposure in scrambles – all while maintaining impressive numbers in his takedown defense and control time statistics.
If Dillashaw forces prolonged stanzas on the feet, then I see his leg kick and corralling head kicks along the cage paying serious dividends in this fight – especially if Sterling starts to slow in the later rounds.
A finish is definitely on the table, but I’ll stick with my published prediction of Dillashaw by decision.
Charles Oliveira (+150) vs. Islam Makhachev (-200)
The main event for UFC 280 features an incredible lightweight title fight between Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev.
Although this matchup has a ton of worthwhile talking points that I touch on in my in-depth breakdown, there was one particular finding that is hard to ignore.
Charles Oliveira: front-choke threats #UFC262 pic.twitter.com/t8EZ8ITqPk
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May 12, 2021
As shown in the linked tweet above, Oliveira – no matter the choking style or scenario – always feeds his opponent’s head to his left side for finishes.
Oddly enough, when going back to look at Makhachev’s takedown entries, I noticed that the Dagestani fighter has a high propensity to shoot with his head to his right side – putting him right in line with Oliveira’s favored kill zone.
This tidbit may not guarantee any outcomes, but muscle memory is a difficult thing to shake when under serious duress. I’ll take the uncrowned lightweight king, “Slim Charles,” to win by second-round submission.
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