UFC 279 predictions: Who’s picking underdog Nate Diaz over 12-1 favorite Khamzat Chimaev?

	Chimaev vs. Diaz	Ferguson vs. Jingliang	Holland vs. Rodriguez	Aldana vs. Chiasson	Cutelaba vs. Walker
MMA Junkie readers’ consensus picks 145-90	Chimaev (55%)	Ferguson (51%)	Holland (65%)	Aldana (65%)	Walker (54%)
Ken Hathaway @kenshathaway 159-81 2018 Champion	Chimaev	Jingliang	Rodriguez	Aldana	Cutelaba
Abbey Subhan @kammakaze 154-86	Chimaev	Jingliang	Rodriguez	Aldana	Cutelaba
Mike Bohn @MikeBohn 152-88 2014 Champion	Chimaev	Jingliang	Holland	Chiasson	Walker
Matthew Wells @MrMWells 149-91	Chimaev	Jingliang	Holland	Chiasson	Walker
Matt Erickson @MMAjunkieMatt 147-93	Chimaev	Jingliang	Holland	Chiasson	Cutelaba
Farah Hannoun @Farah_Hannoun 147-93	Chimaev	Jingliang	Holland	Aldana	Walker
Simon Samano @SJSamano 147-93	Diaz	Jingliang	Holland	Aldana	Walker
Nolan King @mma_kings 142-98	Chimaev	Jingliang	Holland	Aldana	Cutelaba
Brian Garcia @thegoze 140-100 2017 Champion	Chimaev	Ferguson	Rodriguez	Aldana	Cutelaba
George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 129-111	Diaz	Ferguson	Holland	Aldana	Cutelaba
Danny Segura @dannyseguratv 116-124	Chimaev	Jingliang	Rodriguez	Aldana	Cutelaba

The UFC is back in its Las Vegas home base for a pay-per-view featuring a rising star against one of the sport’s most popular fighters.

UFC 279 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPNEWS and early prelims on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the welterweight main event, Khamzat Chimaev (11-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC) takes on Nate Diaz (20-13 MMA, 15-11 UFC), who is on the last fight of his UFC deal and is likely to move on from the promotion after this week. Chimaev is a massive -1200 favorite at Tipico Sportsbook; the comeback on Diaz is +650. But despite the heavy odds in his favor, Chimaev isn’t a unanimous pick from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers. He has a big 9-2 picks lead, though.

The co-main event features the return of former interim lightweight champ Tony Ferguson (25-7 MMA, 15-5 UFC) vs. Li Jingliang (19-7 MMA, 11-5 UFC) at welterweight, a division in which Ferguson is 14-2 overall. Jingliang is a big -340 favorite at the betting window and has a 9-2 edge in the picks. Our readers, though, are going counter to that and have underdog Ferguson with a slim lead.

Also on the main card, Kevin Holland (23-7 MMA, 10-4 UFC) is more than a 2-1 favorite against Daniel Rodriguez (16-2 MMA, 6-1 UFC) in their middleweight bout and has a 7-4 lead in the picks.

“Ultimate Fighter” Season 28 women’s featherweight winner Macy Chiasson (8-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC) is a +145 underdog in her bantamweight bout against Irene Aldana (13-6 MMA, 6-4 UFC). Aldana has a big 8-3 picks advantage.

And to open the main card, Ion Cutelaba (16-7-1 MMA, 5-6-1 UFC) takes on Johnny Walker (18-7 MMA, 4-4 UFC) at light heavyweight. Cutelaba is a -210 favorite and has a 7-4 lead from our staff members. But it’s another fight in which our readers are bucking the trend and going opposite us by taking Walker.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Chimaev (55 percent), Ferguson (51 percent), Holland (65 percent), Aldana (65 percent) and Walker (54 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 279.