MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for UFC 278.
UFC 278 takes place Saturday at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
Last event’s results: 4-2
Overall picks for UFC main cards in 2022: 83-49-1
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for UFC main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado…
Tyson Pedro (-800) vs. Harry Hunsucker (+470)
Despite the state of this pay-per-view, the UFC matchmakers remain intent on utilizing middle and light heavyweights to kick off main cards.
In their defense, this matchup between Tyson Pedro and Harry Hunsucker should be all-action for as long as it lasts.
Hunsucker is a do-or-die fighter who is making his debut at 205 pounds, while Pedro is coming off of a successful return from a long layoff.
Unless Hunsucker can surprise Pedro with something early from boxing range, then I suspect that his past kick susceptibilities will get him punished here. The pick is for Pedro to break down Hunsucker’s legs by the end of the first round and finish him off on the floor with a submission shortly after.
Wu Yanan (+102) vs. Lucie Pudilova (-130)
Continuing the paid portion of the card is a women’s bantamweight battle between Wu Yunan and Lucie Pudilova.
Wu is desperately trying to stop a three-fight skid, while Pudilova is making her return to the promotion after some success in the regional circuits. However, despite being known for her cartoonish aggression in fights, Pudilova has since made clear attempts to fight more technically since spending time at SBG Ireland.
Although I would love to see Wu pull one out here, I’ll reluctantly side with Pudilova to be the more impactful fighter (via her punching power) in a fight that will most likely hit the scorecards.
Jose Aldo (+110) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (-140)
Serving as my personal main event is a bantamweight showdown between the legendary Jose Aldo and the rising Merab Dvalishvili.
Despite opening as the justified favorite, public money has come in on Dvalishvili, pushing Aldo to underdog status (which should come as no surprise given the trends of MMA gamblers).
Although Father Time is a real factor and Aldo’s takedown defense may not be as effective at this weight class, this is still not a matchup that the former featherweight champion loses from a stylistic perspective.
Add in Aldo’s powerful counter punching and bodywork, and I suspect that the Brazilian warhorse still has enough in the tank to edge out a three-round affair should he not find a finish in the first.
Regardless of the result, I hope that everyone respects fighters like Aldo (or Dominick Cruz from last week) for being able to compete through the generations like this, earning the all-time great status.
Paulo Costa (-370) vs. Luke Rockhold (+265)
In what will probably be my girlfriend’s favorite fight of the night, Paulo Costa will take on Luke Rockhold in the co-main event.
Even though I don’t disagree with who is favored, this feels like a tricky fight to forecast given all the intangibles at play.
I’ll be curious to see what positive changes a coach like Jason Parillo can bring about for Rockhold, but I also believe that the American’s traditional tools like left kicks and check hooks will serve him well against the aggression of Costa.
As much as I would love to see Rockhold get it to the ground and flex his grappling skills, the official prediction is for Costa’s left hook to find the former champ’s chin by the first two rounds.
Kamaru Usman (-370) vs. Leon Edwards (+265)
The main attraction for UFC 278 features a rematch for the welterweight title between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards.
As stated in my in-depth breakdown, this fight is deceptively closer then what the betting spreads might depict.
Usman may officially stand at 6-0 against UFC-level lefties, but there are certain shots like body kicks and lead-hand uppercuts from the southpaw stance that seems to be effective on the sitting champion. That said, it’s ultimately hard to trust Edwards given his propensity to take his foot off of the gas pedal in fights.
The pick is for Usman to win a competitive but clear decision on the scorecards, continuing his impressive reign.
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