Despite what progressives have been arguing lately, the United States does not have a tax problem. Federal revenues, even after last year's extension of the Trump tax cuts, are running above their historical average as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). What America has is a spending problem so large that the Congressional Budget Office's latest 10-year outlook reads less like a fiscal forecast than a warning label.
Between now and 2036, the CBO projects $94.6 trillion in federal spending against $70.2 trillion in revenue, a decadelong deficit of $24.4 trillion. Outlays reached 23.1 percent of GDP in 2025, nearly two full percentage points above the 50-year average, meaning annual spending growth is outpacing the economy itself. Debt held by the public is projected to hit 101 percent of GDP this year, which will surpass the post-WWII record of 106 percent by 2030, and climb to 120 percent by 2036.
