As always, making predictions—especially about the future—is a proceed-at-your-own-risk endeavor. But how do you not forecast a Carlos Alcaraz–Novk Djokovic final at the U.S. Open? One or the other has won each of the last five majors. They are ranked No.1 and No. 2, respectively, and have nearly double the points haul of the players ranked No. 3 and No. 4. Their Wimbledon final was a classic best-of-five classic. Five weeks later, their Cincinnati final was a best-of-three classic.
As for who will win the tournament … well, it’s easy to make a compelling case for both. The Tennis Fates never gave the U.S. Open a Roger Federer– Rafael Nadal match (whereas the other three majors, not many Federer–Nadal finals.) The least we could get is a Djokovic–Alcaraz final in New York.
The top 16
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1. Carlos Alcaraz
He’s not just the defending U.S. Open champ but the winner of the previous major. Alcaraz was fed plenty of questions on the North American hard courts and answered most. (And, man, does he benefit from the new coaching rules—or lack thereof.) But then came that Cincy final. To us, that swung the advantage back to the Djokovic side of the court.
2. Novak Djokovic
We have summoned the chaplain and applied last rites to the GOAT debate … but (metaphor crossing) the plot has thickened. After losing that episodic Wimbledon, Djokovic exacted revenge on Alcaraz. And suddenly tennis has a hot new rivalry, albeit one pitting a 36-year-old against a 20-year-old. It’s been five years since he won the U.S. Open, a tournament he’s taken “only” three times. We suspect it’s time for another.
3. Daniil Medvedev
His last—and only—major came here two years ago. Since then, the stock has plateaued. Such a sui generis player. Such a likable player. But does he have the level, confidence and organizational skills to win 21 sets in challenging conditions? (And can he move in from Canarsie to return serve?)
4. Holger Rune
The second-best player born in the spring of 2003 seizes the all-important top-four seed. He’s come a long way from the teenager who brought an Ikea bag onto the court just two years ago. A major semi is the next step in his ascent.
5. Casper Ruud
Two ATP players have made the finals of at least four majors over the past 15 months. One is Djokovic. Here is the other guy. Yet there’s a sense he still needs to prove his top-tier bona fides. A rough go of it since winning those six matches at Roland Garros, it’s hard to imagine another trip to the final. If he plays up to his seeding, it will be an achievement.
6. Jannik Sinner
Sinner took the biggest title of his career this month in Canada. (And came within feet—literally—of beating the champion at the U.S. Open in 2022.) The question: Does he have the snarl to look across a net and think—much less say—I will pull hair and bite and eye-poke if I have to? Because I am not walking off this court as anything other than the winner.
7. Stefanos Tsitsipas
We’ll see how the personnel shakeup is going. (The recent headline, “Player puts father in a time out,” reads like the premise of a tween movie.) Fine hard-court player, but a bit snakebitten at the U.S. Open, where he is 5–5 for his career.
8. Andrey Rublev
The cut-and-paste from Wimbledon: “This will sound harsher than intended. But there’s an element of counterfeit here. A top-flight player, week-in, week-out. But has yet to show he has the mental and physical durability to get it done in the best-of-five events.” Reached the U.S. Open quarters six years ago, the first of eight appearances in the round of eight. He’s never been further.
9. Taylor Fritz
The highest-ranked American is something of a locavore—that is, he’s had success on U.S. hard courts, including over the past month. But he is too much of a realist not to know the deal. You make your bones at majors. In his past four majors, Fritz is 4–4, and there’s a lot of pressure to salvage his Slam season at his home major. Spun more positively: A big opportunity for a breakthrough beckons.
10. Frances Tiafoe
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He has breached the perimeter of the top 10. Can he build on it? A U.S. Open semifinalist in 2022, he’s been quiet lately. But he builds his year to peak for this event. Here it is …
11. Karen Khachnov
An injury-riddled season but has become a reliable Week 2 player at majors, including the U.S. Open.
12. Alexander Zverev
Was it only three years ago that the German served for the title? A lot has happened since. It’s a dereliction not to reference the multiple domestic violence allegations that hang over him. And it’s a dereliction not to reference that he has mastered the art (?) of compartmentalization and must be considered a contender after the Djokovic/Alcaraz bloc.
13. Alex de Minaur
The feisty Australian scored one of his better career results reaching the Canada final, beating Medvedev in the process. For that, he is at a career-high ranking. He has been to only one career quarterfinal, but that was in New York three years ago.
14. Tommy Paul
Since reaching the semis in Australia, it had been quiet at the House of Paul. Then, he beat Alcaraz in Toronto, one of the more noteworthy results of the summer and took another set from him in Cincy. Paul is an elite athlete, though his serve can play peek-a-boo when matches tighten.
15. Félix Auger-Aliassime
Sadly, it’s been a year of retreat for FA-A struggling, as he is, to be cleared for takeoff. Four titles in 2022. Zero so far in ’23. He’s had illness and injury and has never found his groove. So many assets and so much to like.
16. Cam Norrie
The British (South African/New Zealand/Fort Worth) lefty is the proverbial tough out. But he comes in having lost five of his last six matches.
A look at some lower seeds
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17. Hubert Hurkacz
We talk about MMA fighters taking a lot of damage. What about tennis players taking on so many accumulating mental blows? HH is a lovely guy and an episodically terrific player. But he loses so many close matches—a winnable encounter with Djokovic at Wimbledon; 7–6 in the third to Michael MMoh in D.C.; 7–6 in the third to Alcaraz in Toronto; squandering match points to Alcaraz in Cincy … and that’s just the past six weeks.
18. Lorenzo Musetti
If this is the year we get an unsung champion, you could make a worse pick. A strong year—including a win over Djokovic—has put Musetti in the top 20. And he’s only a year older than Alcaraz. Bonus points for the sweeping one-hander.
21. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Fun-to-watch, flashy, occasionally-can’t-get-out-of-his-own-way player, who has played well over the past few months. Beware the underhand serve …
23. Adrian Mannarino
Craft French lefty has already won a title in the U.S. this summer. Now get him a clothing deal!
24. Tallon Griekspoor
The best player you have, perhaps, never seen play.
25. Alexander Bublik
A seeded wild card. Wonderfully entertaining to watch. He happily admits that he is not sure which player will show up, the world-beater or the guy who loses in Round 1.
26. Dan Evans
Winner of Washington D.C., Evans is such a pleasure to watch.
28. Chris Eubanks
Last year he failed to qualify. This year—off a Wimbledon quarterfinal run—he’ll be a seed. And he’ll get commensurate fan support and run-up attention.
Dark-horse corral
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Sebastian Korda: A force at the previous hard-court major, he has scarcely been heard from since. Still, there is so much to like, including a measured, make-no-waves approach that recalls Pete Sampras.
Andy Murray: You know the rules: All former No. 1 players (and former champions) merit mention—even when they are 36, have a metal hip and are nursing ab injuries.
Ben Shelton: Crushed it at the last hard-court major. Has cooled since, which is fine. He’s 20.
Stan Wawrinka: You know the rules: All former champions merit mention.
Art Fils: The best player under 20 is in the top 50 … with a bullet. (Doesn’t turn 20 until June.)
Gaël Monfils: The magician still has some shakes of the wand.
Max Purcell: A doubles specialist no more, his strong summer run can continue.
First-round matches to watch
Fils vs. Griekspoor: A rough draw for both
Tiafoe vs. Learner Tien: It’s the present vs. the future
Bublik vs. Dominic Thiem: It’ll be interesting to see which version of Bublik shows up
Fritz vs. Stevie Johnson: Should have been at Carson
First-round upset
Mackenzie McDonald d. Auger-Aliassime
Semis
Alcaraz d. Medvedev
