House lawmakers were briefed on the potential outcome of a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan within the next two years. The Chinese defense industrial base is operating at a 'wartime footing,' with a shipbuilding capacity 230 times greater than the U.S., making a Taiwan invasion a possibility. U.S. analysts project China to be fully equipped for an invasion by 2027.
A simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies showed the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan defeating a Chinese invasion but with heavy losses. The report emphasized Taiwan's defense, immediate U.S. decision on intervention, operations through Japan, and increased anti-ship missiles.
The scenario assumes U.S. defense of Taiwan under President-elect Trump, with Japan as a key ally. North Korea's potential involvement and challenges in arming Taiwan were highlighted.
China's military capabilities, including missiles, pose a threat. The U.S. must ramp up munitions production to deter conflict. The Indo-Pacific Command believes countering a Chinese invasion would be challenging.
China's naval activities in the Pacific have raised concerns. The U.S. military's shift to the Indo-Pacific reflects the region's strategic importance. China's invasion policy is tied to Taiwan's independence or external intervention.
China's military modernization, including a large navy, has been observed. The U.S. faces challenges in countering China's growing capabilities.
