Venezuela's devastating twin earthquakes may ultimately leave more than 10,000 people dead, according to a new assessment by U.S. earthquake experts, who warn that the disaster has the potential to become one of the deadliest seismic events in modern Latin American history.
The U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) issued its highest Red Alert following Wednesday's powerful earthquakes, indicating that "high casualties and extensive damage are probable" and that the disaster is likely to require a major national or international humanitarian response.
The agency's statistical model estimates there is a 59% probability the final death toll will exceed 10,000 people, while a separate 17% probability places fatalities above 100,000 if widespread structural collapses occurred throughout the affected region. The estimates are designed to help governments and emergency responders prepare resources and are not forecasts of confirmed casualties.
The warning comes as Venezuelan authorities continue searching through collapsed buildings after a magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck northern Venezuela, followed seconds later by an even stronger magnitude 7.5 quake centered near Yumare in Yaracuy state. The twin earthquakes generated violent shaking across much of northern and central Venezuela, including Caracas, La Guaira, Aragua, Carabobo and Yaracuy.
Officials have confirmed more than 160 deaths and hundreds of injuries, but rescue operations remain underway and authorities caution that many communities remain inaccessible. Search teams continue working around the clock to locate survivors trapped beneath collapsed apartment buildings, hotels and other structures.
According to the USGS assessment, more than 7.7 million people were exposed to strong shaking, while an additional 2.37 million experienced very strong shaking capable of causing extensive structural damage. Nearly 401,000 people were exposed to severe shaking, and approximately 29,000 experienced violent shaking, the highest level identified in the assessment.
Some of Venezuela's largest population centers were directly affected.
The assessment estimates that approximately 2.2 million residents of Caracas experienced very strong shaking, while 1.48 million people in Valencia, 662,000 in Catia La Mar, 221,000 in San Felipe, and more than 200,000 residents of Puerto Cabello and La Guaira were also exposed to damaging ground motion.
One of the primary reasons for the grim projections is the vulnerability of much of Venezuela's housing stock.
According to the report, many residents live in unreinforced brick masonry and adobe block structures, building types known to perform poorly during major earthquakes. Although earthquake-resistant construction exists in some urban areas, the agency concluded that vulnerable structures remain predominant throughout the affected region.
The report also notes that previous major earthquakes in northern Venezuela have produced deadly secondary hazards, including tsunamis, which have contributed to casualties during past disasters. Historical earthquakes near the affected region include the deadly 1967 Caracas earthquake, which killed 240 people, and a magnitude 6.3 earthquake in 1975 that also caused fatalities.
Beyond the human toll, the economic impact is expected to be severe.
The USGS estimates direct economic losses could amount to between 1% and 7% of Venezuela's gross domestic product, underscoring the enormous reconstruction challenge facing a country already struggling with years of economic crisis, deteriorating infrastructure and limited public resources.
International assistance has begun arriving as rescue efforts intensify. Several countries, including the United States, have pledged emergency aid, while humanitarian organizations are mobilizing search-and-rescue teams, medical supplies and temporary shelters for thousands displaced by the disaster.
Seismologists caution that casualty estimates will continue to evolve as emergency crews reach isolated communities and conduct more comprehensive damage assessments. The PAGER system is intended to provide emergency planners with rapid scientific estimates during the first hours after major earthquakes, helping governments determine the scale of resources likely to be needed as rescue and recovery efforts continue.
