The U.S. Census Bureau is implementing changes in how it counts immigrants in its annual estimates by now including more individuals who were admitted for humanitarian reasons, a move aimed at better reflecting population shifts in the current decade. This adjustment will be reflected in the upcoming release of population estimates on Thursday, showcasing changes in the U.S. and state populations for the year. However, the revised methodology for counting immigrants will only impact national figures.
In 2023, the percentage of foreign-born U.S. residents reached its highest level in over a century, and this figure may rise further with the new counting approach. Census Bureau officials did not disclose the expected increase in immigration figures due to the change.
Accurately capturing the number of new immigrants poses a significant challenge in the annual U.S. population estimates. The timing of this methodology change, though unrelated, coincides with the imminent return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House, who has pledged mass deportations of undocumented individuals.
The Census Bureau's previous estimates of migrant entries in the 2020s have been notably lower than figures reported by other federal agencies, such as the Congressional Budget Office. While the Census Bureau estimated 1.1 million immigrant entries in 2023, the Congressional Budget Office's estimate was significantly higher at 3.3 million.
The revised international migration estimates now encompass individuals entering the U.S. through humanitarian parole, a practice in place for seven decades under both Republican and Democratic administrations. This provision allows entry for individuals facing time constraints or coming from countries with strained relations with the U.S. The Migration Policy Institute reported that over 5.8 million people were admitted under various humanitarian policies from 2021 to 2024.
President Trump has indicated plans to dismantle humanitarian parole, denouncing it as an 'outrageous abuse of parole' during his campaign. The Census Bureau's annual population estimates factor in births, deaths, migration to the U.S., and interstate migration, providing official population counts each year between the decennial censuses for the U.S., states, counties, and metro areas. These figures play a crucial role in the distribution of federal funding amounting to trillions of dollars.
