Europe’s reliance on American liquefied natural gas is set to increase further next year as the EU continues efforts to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports, according to new analysis published by the IEEFA on Wednesday.
The report estimates that the US could supply close to two-thirds of Europe’s LNG imports in 2026, reinforcing Washington’s dominant position in the continent’s gas market after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Iran war reshaped global energy flows.
According to IEEFA, the US already accounted for 57% of Europe’s LNG imports in 2025, a sharp increase compared with pre-war levels.
The organisation warned that the share could continue rising over the coming years if current import trends persist and additional long-term supply contracts enter into force.
The findings come as most European governments seek to fully eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027 under the European Commission’s REPowerEU strategy.
Since 2022, EU member states have rapidly expanded LNG purchases, particularly from the US, to compensate for declining Russian pipeline deliveries.
The IEEFA stated that the shift had improved Europe’s short-term energy security but also created a growing concentration risk.
The think tank argued that replacing dependence on Russian gas with heavy reliance on another single alternative supplier could expose Europe to future political and market instability.
Lower demand but higher imports and investment
The report noted that LNG imports from the US generally come at a higher cost than pipeline gas because of liquefaction, shipping and regasification expenses.
The IEEFA estimates that EU countries spent roughly €117 billion on US LNG imports between early 2022 and mid-2025.
Several European policymakers and regulators have previously warned against excessive dependence on imported LNG.
Earlier this year, European Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera said the bloc should avoid replacing one energy dependency with another and accelerate investment in renewable power and electrification instead.
The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators has also raised concerns about supply concentration risks linked to the growing role of US LNG in the European market.
The increase in LNG imports also comes despite a broader decline in European gas consumption in recent years.
High prices following the energy crisis, industrial weakness, energy-saving measures and faster deployment of renewable energy have all contributed to lower demand.
The IEEFA data shows Europe’s LNG imports declined in 2024 as gas consumption fell to its lowest level in more than a decade. However, imports rebounded in 2025 amid colder weather conditions and efforts by governments to replenish storage sites.
At the same time, several EU countries continue expanding LNG import infrastructure.
Germany, which previously relied heavily on Russian pipeline gas, has rapidly developed floating LNG terminals and emerged as one of the largest buyers of US LNG in Europe.
Analysts have also questioned whether Europe risks building excess LNG import capacity as long-term gas demand is expected to weaken further during the energy transition in the coming years.
