PHILADELPHIA — National political trends are shifting in Republicans’ favor as inflation assumes an even more dominant position in voters’ minds, according to two recent polls — a potentially significant development for key Pennsylvania races that could be decided by just a few percentage points.
The shifts, less than three weeks before Election Day, come after a summer in which Democrats had gained ground and hoped that fury over the end of the constitutional right to abortion might help them defy political headwinds, and President Joe Biden’s poor approval ratings.
If the apparent GOP momentum holds, it could boost Republican candidates in close Pennsylvania races for Senate and U.S. House, with national implications and control of Congress on the line.
Here’s a look at what the polls say, and what it means for each party and major races in Pennsylvania.
A Monmouth University poll released Thursday found that 49% of Americans want Republicans in charge of Congress, against 45% who favor Democrats. That’s an 11-point swing from August, when Democrats had an edge on the same question in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision ending the national right to abortion.
The Monmouth results came after a New York Times/Siena College poll found the exact same results on the so-called generic ballot (the question of which party voters want in charge).
Both polls point to one clear explanation: growing worry about inflation. While prices and the economy have long been the dominant issue in these midterms, their salience appears to be increasing. Roughly 46% of adults nationwide saw inflation as “extremely” important, according to Monmouth’s poll, up from 37% in September. It’s now clearly the top concern for voters nationally.
In the Times poll, 44% of likely voters listed economic issues as the most important issues facing the country, up from 36% in July.
There was at least one recent exception, though: a Pew Research Center survey released Thursday found about an even split between the parties, with 41% of voters favoring Democrats and 40% favoring Republicans.
Still, Pew found that the economy was by far the dominant issue for voters, and 82% of voters surveyed said the economy was either poor or only fair. That’s a red flag for the party in power.
Democrats say there’s a key factor that makes Pennsylvania’s races different: The candidates are far from generic.
In Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz, and State Sen. Doug Mastriano, the state has big, well-defined personalities atop the ticket, with individual strengths and weaknesses that stand out.
Fetterman’s camp has long argued that in a year like this, Democrats need someone different, someone like him, to win. And they say that not only does Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, bring unique strengths, but that Oz has distinct weaknesses: his longtime residency in New Jersey and a reputation for promoting bogus miracle cures and other questionable advice.
There’s some evidence it’s working. Despite all the bad news for Democrats, public polling indicates the race is essentially tied, or leaning slightly toward Fetterman, and some surveys have found that more voters trust him to understand their everyday concerns.
Mastriano adds another non-generic wild card. The GOP candidate for governor is widely seen as one of the most far-right major candidates in the country. Even in U.S. House races, where candidates often struggle to distinguish themselves because they get less attention, Democrats are using Mastriano to do the job for them, linking their GOP opponents to Mastriano’s opposition to abortion, with no exceptions. Democrats in the Pittsburgh suburbs and Lehigh Valley have run ads featuring Mastriano.
Republicans say there’s no defying basic political gravity.
Inflation is still high. Voters are worried about it. Democrats are in charge in Washington, and the president is unpopular. Add it up, and it looks like a good year for Republicans.
Abortion and other issues may have led the national discussion for a time, but in the end, they say, the economy will drive votes, and the economy is where Republicans are stronger.
And while Democrats argue that Fetterman has a unique, everyman appeal, Republicans believe they can paint him as outside the mainstream — as evidenced in Oz’s push to win over swing voters and his ads calling for “more balance and less extremism.” They’re aiming to turn Fetterman’s unorthodox persona against him.
The key races in Pennsylvania were all expected to be close this year, and aside from the gubernatorial contest, that appears to be the case. The Senate campaign, and key House races in the Scranton area, Lehigh Valley, and Pittsburgh suburbs are all too close to call heading into the final weeks.
Often such close races come down to late-breaking decisions. That makes late movement in the polls worth watching.
