The home straight of the most unusual football season in memory is almost upon us. This is a campaign that has been split into thirds. We've had the opening salvo before the World Cup, the heart of the year between late December and this international break and now all that awaits is the sprint finish.
The good news for Manchester United is that they have been getting better. When the season paused for the World Cup in mid-November they had won 14 out of their first 21 games. After losing to Brighton and Brentford in Erik ten Hag's first two matches in charge, it was a respectable recovery.
But what has happened between the season resuming and this March break has set the tone for the Dutchman's first season. Harry Maguire might be something of a forgotten club captain, having started only 12 times this season, but when he spoke to reporters after the Carabao Cup final success, he summed the narrative arc of this season up pretty well.
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"I think coming back from the World Cup we have started to play really well," he said. "Before the World Cup we had great fight and spirit but we didn’t really put in the actions that the manager wanted, but since the World Cup we did that."
It feels like an excellent summation. United have won 19 of their 25 games between the season resuming after the World Cup and this international break. In that run, they won the Carabao Cup, reached the FA Cup semi-final and beat Barcelona and Real Betis in the Europa League. They also went from sixth to third in the Premier League.
It's a run that has already marked the season out as a success. A first trophy in six years is back at Old Trafford. But it does feel like that won't be enough now. When domestic action resumes, United will be favourites for their Europa League quarter-final and FA Cup semi-final and the bookmakers also have them down to finish third.
This season could last 65 games, however, and the last thing this team needs is every one of those fixtures carrying some jeopardy. It's why cementing a top-four spot sooner rather than later is essential.
United have enough to do just that, but they are only one point ahead of Tottenham and three against Newcastle. There are reasons to believe they are in a better position than both of them. Tottenham are being torn apart by Antonio Conte and Newcastle look to be starting to find games a little harder to win.
Things can change, however. Newcastle will benefit from the break and the prospect of a Tottenham revival without Conte is very real. It's clear that the dressing room has had enough of their manager and United know from experience that a departure from a demanding, intense boss to someone with a lighter touch can elicit rapid improvement.
United must also go to St James' Park and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium before the end of the season. The trip to Newcastle is the first game after the international break and the game at Spurs comes after a week that includes the second leg in Seville and the Wembley semi-final with Brighton.
Win both and United will take a strong grip on third and an almost immovable hold on the top four. It should allow Ten Hag to start rotating for the final weeks of the season - ideal if his side is still in the running for two more trophies.
Even a couple of draws would be acceptable for United, keeping them in control of the table, but defeats could be costly. It could result in a ratcheting up of the pressure when suddenly it will feel like there are two cup finals a week.
United used the first third of the season to steady themselves under Ten Hag. They've used the middle section to put themselves in an excellent position. Now it's time to finish the job. They will find it a lot easier to do with positive results against the chasing pack.
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